We propose a causal hidden Markov model to achieve robust prediction of irreversible disease at an early stage, which is safety-critical and vital for medical treatment in early stages. Specifically, we introduce the hidden variables which propagate to generate medical data at each time step. To avoid learning spurious correlation (e.g., confounding bias), we explicitly separate these hidden variables into three parts: a) the disease (clinical)-related part; b) the disease (non-clinical)-related part; c) others, with only a),b) causally related to the disease however c) may contain spurious correlations (with the disease) inherited from the data provided. With personal attributes and disease label respectively provided as side information and supervision, we prove that these disease-related hidden variables can be disentangled from others, implying the avoidance of spurious correlation for generalization to medical data from other (out-of-) distributions. Guaranteed by this result, we propose a sequential variational auto-encoder with a reformulated objective function. We apply our model to the early prediction of peripapillary atrophy and achieve promising results on out-of-distribution test data. Further, the ablation study empirically shows the effectiveness of each component in our method. And the visualization shows the accurate identification of lesion regions from others.1

Forecasting Parapapillary atrophy (PPA), i.e., a symptom related to most irreversible eye diseases, provides an alarm for implementing an intervention to slow down the disease progression at early stage. A key question for this forecast is: how to fully utilize the historical data (e.g., retinal image) up to the current stage for future disease prediction? In this paper, we provide an answer with a novel framework, namely Disease Forecast via Progression Learning (DFPL), which exploits the irreversibility prior (i.e., cannot be reversed once diagnosed). Specifically, based on this prior, we decompose two factors that contribute to the prediction of the future disease: i) the current disease label given the data (retinal image, clinical attributes) at present and ii) the future disease label given the progression of the retinal images that from the current to the future. To model these two factors, we introduce the current and progression predictors in DFPL, respectively. In order to account for the degree of progression of the disease, we propose a temporal generative model to accurately generate the future image and compare it with the current one to get a residual image. The generative model is implemented by a recurrent neural network, in order to exploit the dependency of the historical data. To verify our approach, we apply it to a PPA in-house dataset and it yields a significant improvement (e.g., 4.48% of accuracy; 3.45% of AUC) over others. Besides, our generative model can accurately localize the disease-related regions.

Mammogram benign or malignant classification with only image-level labels is challenging due to the absence of lesion annotations. Motivated by the symmetric prior that the lesions on one side of breasts rarely appear in the corresponding areas on the other side, we explore to answer a counterfactual question to identify the lesion areas. This counterfactual question means: given an image with lesions, how would the features have behaved if there were no lesions in the image? To answer this question, we derive a new theoretical result based on the symmetric prior. Specifically, by building a causal model that entails such a prior for bilateral images, we identify to optimize the distances in distribution between i) the counterfactual features and the target side's features in lesion-free areas; and ii) the counterfactual features and the reference side's features in lesion areas. To realize these optimizations for better benign/malignant classification, we propose a counterfactual generative network, which is mainly composed of Generator Adversarial Network and a prediction feedback mechanism, they are optimized jointly and prompt each other. Specifically, the former can further improve the classi?cation performance by generating counterfactual features to calculate lesion areas. On the other hand, the latter helps counterfactual generation by the supervision of classification loss. The utility of our method and the effectiveness of each module in our model can be verified by state-of-the-art performance on INBreast and an in-house dataset and ablation studies.

Active Object Tracking (AOT) is crucial to many vision-based applications, e.g., mobile robot, intelligent surveillance. However, there are a number of challenges when deploying active tracking in complex scenarios, e.g., target is frequently occluded by obstacles. In this paper, we extend the single-camera AOT to a multi-camera setting, where cameras tracking a target in a collaborative fashion. To achieve effective collaboration among cameras, we propose a novel Pose-Assisted Multi-Camera Collaboration System, which enables a camera to cooperate with the others by sharing camera poses for active object tracking. In the system, each camera is equipped with two controllers and a switcher: The vision-based controller tracks targets based on observed images. The pose-based controller moves the camera in accordance to the poses of the other cameras. At each step, the switcher decides which action to take from the two controllers according to the visibility of the target. The experimental results demonstrate that our system outperforms all the baselines and is capable of generalizing to unseen environments. The code and demo videos are available on our website https://sites.google.com/view/pose-assisted-collaboration.