Caseworkers in the child welfare (CW) sector use predictive decision-making algorithms built on risk assessment (RA) data to guide and support CW decisions. Researchers have highlighted that RAs can contain biased signals which flatten CW case complexities and that the algorithms may benefit from incorporating contextually rich case narratives, i.e. - the casenotes written by caseworkers. To investigate this hypothesized improvement, we quantitatively deconstructed two commonly used RAs from a United States CW agency. We trained classifier models to compare the predictive validity of RAs with and without casenote narratives and applied computational text analysis on casenotes to highlight topics uncovered in the casenotes. Our study finds that common risk metrics used to assess families and build CWS predictive risk models (PRMs) are unable to predict discharge outcomes for children who are not reunified with their birth parent(s). We also find that although casenotes cannot predict discharge outcomes, they contain contextual case signals. Given the lack of predictive validity of RA scores and casenotes, we propose moving beyond quantitative risk assessments for public sector algorithms and towards using contextual sources of information such as narratives to study public sociotechnical systems.

We demonstrate that large language models (LLMs) may learn indicators of document usefulness and modulate their updates accordingly. We introduce random strings ("tags") as indicators of usefulness in a synthetic fine-tuning dataset. Fine-tuning on this dataset leads to **implicit meta-learning (IML)**: in further fine-tuning, the model updates to make more use of text that is tagged as useful. We perform a thorough empirical investigation of this phenomenon, finding (among other things) that (i) it occurs in both pretrained LLMs and those trained from scratch, as well as on a vision task, and (ii) larger models and smaller batch sizes tend to give more IML. We also use probing to examine how IML changes the way models store knowledge in their parameters. Finally, we reflect on what our results might imply about the capabilities, risks, and controllability of future AI systems.

Data curation is a field with origins in librarianship and archives, whose scholarship and thinking on data issues go back centuries, if not millennia. The field of machine learning is increasingly observing the importance of data curation to the advancement of both applications and fundamental understanding of machine learning models -- evidenced not least by the creation of the Datasets and Benchmarks track itself. This work provides an analysis of recent dataset development practices at NeurIPS through the lens of data curation. We present an evaluation framework for dataset documentation, consisting of a rubric and toolkit developed through a thorough literature review of data curation principles. We use the framework to systematically assess the strengths and weaknesses in current dataset development practices of 60 datasets published in the NeurIPS Datasets and Benchmarks track from 2021-2023. We summarize key findings and trends. Results indicate greater need for documentation about environmental footprint, ethical considerations, and data management. We suggest targeted strategies and resources to improve documentation in these areas and provide recommendations for the NeurIPS peer-review process that prioritize rigorous data curation in ML. We also provide guidelines for dataset developers on the use of our rubric as a standalone tool. Finally, we provide results in the format of a dataset that showcases aspects of recommended data curation practices. Our rubric and results are of interest for improving data curation practices broadly in the field of ML as well as to data curation and science and technology studies scholars studying practices in ML. Our aim is to support continued improvement in interdisciplinary research on dataset practices, ultimately improving the reusability and reproducibility of new datasets and benchmarks, enabling standardized and informed human oversight, and strengthening the foundation of rigorous and responsible ML research.

While deep convolutional neural networks frequently approach or exceed human-level performance in benchmark tasks involving static images, extending this success to moving images is not straightforward. Video understanding is of interest for many applications, including content recommendation, prediction, summarization, event/object detection, and understanding human visual perception. However, many domains lack sufficient data to explore and perfect video models. In order to address the need for a simple, quantitative benchmark for developing and understanding video, we present MovieFIB, a fill-in-the-blank question-answering dataset with over 300,000 examples, based on descriptive video annotations for the visually impaired. In addition to presenting statistics and a description of the dataset, we perform a detailed analysis of 5 different models predictions, and compare these with human performance. We investigate the relative importance of language, static (2D) visual features, and moving (3D) visual features, the effects of increasing dataset size, the number of frames sampled, and of vocabulary size. We illustrate that: this task is not solvable by a language model alone, our model combining 2D and 3D visual information indeed provides the best result, all models perform significantly worse than human-level. We provide human evaluation for responses given by different models and find that accuracy on the MovieFIB evaluation corresponds well with human judgment. We suggest avenues for improving video models, and hope that the MovieFIB challenge can be useful for measuring and encouraging progress in this very interesting field.

We examine the role of memorization in deep learning, drawing connections to capacity, generalization, and adversarial robustness. While deep networks are capable of memorizing noise data, our results suggest that they tend to prioritize learning simple patterns first. In our experiments, we expose qualitative differences in gradient-based optimization of deep neural networks (DNNs) on noise vs.~real data. We also demonstrate that for appropriately tuned explicit regularization (e.g.,~dropout) we can degrade DNN training performance on noise datasets without compromising generalization on real data. Our analysis suggests that the notions of effective capacity which are dataset independent are unlikely to explain the generalization performance of deep networks when trained with gradient based methods because training data itself plays an important role in determining the degree of memorization.

Then detection and identification of extreme weather events in large-scale climate simulations is an important problem for risk management, informing governmental policy decisions and advancing our basic understanding of the climate system. Recent work has shown that fully supervised convolutional neural networks (CNNs) can yield acceptable accuracy for classifying well-known types of extreme weather events when large amounts of labeled data are available. However, many different types of spatially localized climate patterns are of interest including hurricanes, extra-tropical cyclones, weather fronts, and blocking events among others. Existing labeled data for these patterns can be incomplete in various ways, such as covering only certain years or geographic areas and having false negatives. This type of climate data therefore poses a number of interesting machine learning challenges. We present a multichannel spatiotemporal CNN architecture for semi-supervised bounding box prediction and exploratory data analysis. We demonstrate that our approach is able to leverage temporal information and unlabeled data to improve the localization of extreme weather events. Further, we explore the representations learned by our model in order to better understand this important data. We present a dataset, ExtremeWeather, to encourage machine learning research in this area and to help facilitate further work in understanding and mitigating the effects of climate change. The dataset is available at extremeweatherdataset.github.io and the code is available at https://github.com/eracah/hur-detect.