An informal observation, made by several authors, is that the adaptive design of a Markov transition kernel has the flavour of a reinforcement learning task. Yet, to-date it has remained unclear how to exploit modern reinforcement learning technologies for adaptive MCMC. The aim of this paper is to set out a general framework, called \emph{Reinforcement Learning Metropolis—Hastings}, that is theoretically supported and empirically validated. Our principal focus is on learning fast-mixing Metropolis—Hastings transition kernels, which we cast as deterministic policies and optimise via a policy gradient. Control of the learning rate provably ensures conditions for ergodicity are satisfied. The methodology is used to construct a gradient-free sampler that out-performs a popular gradient-free adaptive Metropolis–Hastings algorithm on $\approx$90% of tasks in the \emph{PosteriorDB} benchmark.

We propose a goodness-of-fit measure for probability densities modeling observations with varying dimensionality, such as text documents of differing lengths or variable-length sequences. The proposed measure is an instance of the kernel Stein discrepancy (KSD), which has been used to construct goodness-of-fit tests for unnormalized densities. The KSD is defined by its Stein operator: current operators used in testing apply to fixed-dimensional spaces. As our main contribution, we extend the KSD to the variable-dimension setting by identifying appropriate Stein operators, and propose a novel KSD goodness-of-fit test. As with the previous variants, the proposed KSD does not require the density to be normalized, allowing the evaluation of a large class of models. Our test is shown to perform well in practice on discrete sequential data benchmarks.

Proxy causal learning (PCL) is a method for estimating the causal effect of treatments on outcomes in the presence of unobserved confounding, using proxies (structured side information) for the confounder. This is achieved via two-stage regression: in the first stage, we model relations among the treatment and proxies; in the second stage, we use this model to learn the effect of treatment on the outcome, given the context provided by the proxies. PCL guarantees recovery of the true causal effect, subject to identifiability conditions. We propose a novel method for PCL, the deep feature proxy variable method (DFPV), to address the case where the proxies, treatments, and outcomes are high-dimensional and have nonlinear complex relationships, as represented by deep neural network features. We show that DFPV outperforms recent state-of-the-art PCL methods on challenging synthetic benchmarks, including settings involving high dimensional image data. Furthermore, we show that PCL can be applied to off-policy evaluation for the confounded bandit problem, in which DFPV also exhibits competitive performance.

Models that employ latent variables to capture structure in observed data lie at the heart of many current unsupervised learning algorithms, but exact maximum-likelihood learning for powerful and flexible latent-variable models is almost always intractable. Thus, state-of-the-art approaches either abandon the maximum-likelihood framework entirely, or else rely on a variety of variational approximations to the posterior distribution over the latents. Here, we propose an alternative approach that we call amortised learning. Rather than computing an approximation to the posterior over latents, we use a wake-sleep Monte-Carlo strategy to learn a function that directly estimates the maximum-likelihood parameter updates. Amortised learning is possible whenever samples of latents and observations can be simulated from the generative model, treating the model as a “black box”. We demonstrate its effectiveness on a wide range of complex models, including those with latents that are discrete or supported on non-Euclidean spaces.

We propose two nonparametric statistical tests of goodness of fit for conditional distributions: given a conditional probability density function p(y|x) and a joint sample, decide whether the sample is drawn from p(y|x)q(x) for some density q(x). Our tests, formulated with a Stein operator, can be applied to any differentiable conditional density model, and require no knowledge of the normalizing constant. We show that 1) our tests are consistent against any fixed alternative conditional model; 2) the statistics can be estimated easily, requiring no density estimation as an intermediate step; and 3) our second test offers an interpretable test result providing insight on where the conditional model does not fit well in the domain of the covariate. We demonstrate the interpretability of our test on a task of modeling the distribution of New York City’s taxi drop-off location given a pick-up point. To our knowledge, our work is the first to propose such conditional goodness-of-fit tests that simultaneously have all these desirable properties.

Given two candidate models, and a set of target observations, we address the problem of measuring the relative goodness of fit of the two models. We propose two new statistical tests which are nonparametric, computationally efficient (runtime complexity is linear in the sample size), and interpretable. As a unique advantage, our tests can produce a set of examples (informative features) indicating the regions in the data domain where one model fits significantly better than the other. In a real-world problem of comparing GAN models, the test power of our new test matches that of the state-of-the-art test of relative goodness of fit, while being one order of magnitude faster.

We investigate the statistical efficiency of a nonparametric Gaussian process method for a nonlinear tensor estimation problem. Low-rank tensor estimation has been used as a method to learn higher order relations among several data sources in a wide range of applications, such as multi-task learning, recommendation systems, and spatiotemporal analysis. We consider a general setting where a common linear tensor learning is extended to a nonlinear learning problem in reproducing kernel Hilbert space and propose a nonparametric Bayesian method based on the Gaussian process method. We prove its statistical convergence rate without assuming any strong convexity, such as restricted strong convexity. Remarkably, it is shown that our convergence rate achieves the minimax optimal rate. We apply our proposed method to multi-task learning and show that our method significantly outperforms existing methods through numerical experiments on real-world data sets.

We investigate the statistical performance and computational efficiency of the alternating minimization procedure for nonparametric tensor learning. Tensor modeling has been widely used for capturing the higher order relations between multimodal data sources. In addition to a linear model, a nonlinear tensor model has been received much attention recently because of its high flexibility. We consider an alternating minimization procedure for a general nonlinear model where the true function consists of components in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS). In this paper, we show that the alternating minimization method achieves linear convergence as an optimization algorithm and that the generalization error of the resultant estimator yields the minimax optimality. We apply our algorithm to some multitask learning problems and show that the method actually shows favorable performances.