Temporal point-processes are often used for mathematical modeling of sequences of discrete events with asynchronous timestamps. We focus on a class of temporal point-process models called multivariate Wold processes (MWP). These processes are well suited to model real-world communication dynamics. Statistical inference on such processes often requires learning their corresponding parameters using a set of observed timestamps. In this work, we relax some of the restrictive modeling assumptions made in the state-of-the-art and introduce a Bayesian approach for inferring the parameters of MWP. We develop a computationally efficient variational inference algorithm that allows scaling up the approach to high-dimensional processes and long sequences of observations. Our experimental results on both synthetic and real-world datasets show that our proposed algorithm outperforms existing methods.

Multivariate Hawkes processes (MHPs) are widely used in a variety of fields to model the occurrence of causally related discrete events in continuous time. Most state-of-the-art approaches address the problem of learning MHPs from perfect traces without noise. In practice, the process through which events are collected might introduce noise in the timestamps. In this work, we address the problem of learning the causal structure of MHPs when the observed timestamps of events are subject to random and unknown shifts, also known as random translations. We prove that the cumulants of MHPs are invariant to random translations, and therefore can be used to learn their underlying causal structure. Furthermore, we empirically characterize the effect of random translations on state-of-the-art learning methods. We show that maximum likelihood-based estimators are brittle, while cumulant-based estimators remain stable even in the presence of significant time shifts.

Multivariate Hawkes processes (MHP) are widely used in a variety of fields to model the occurrence of discrete events. Prior work on learning MHPs has only focused on inference in the presence of perfect traces without noise. We address the problem of learning the causal structure of MHPs when observations are subject to an unknown delay. In particular, we introduce the so-called synchronization noise, where the stream of events generated by each dimension is subject to a random and unknown time shift. We characterize the robustness of the classic maximum likelihood estimator to synchronization noise, and we introduce a new approach for learning the causal structure in the presence of noise. Our experimental results show that our approach accurately recovers the causal structure of MHPs for a wide range of noise levels, and significantly outperforms classic estimation methods.

Learning the causal-interaction network of multivariate Hawkes processes is a useful task in many applications. Maximum-likelihood estimation is the most common approach to solve the problem in the presence of long observation sequences. However, when only short sequences are available, the lack of data amplifies the risk of overfitting and regularization becomes critical. Due to the challenges of hyper-parameter tuning, state-of-the-art methods only parameterize regularizers by a single shared hyper-parameter, hence limiting the power of representation of the model. To solve both issues, we develop in this work an efficient algorithm based on variational expectation-maximization. Our approach is able to optimize over an extended set of hyper-parameters. It is also able to take into account the uncertainty in the model parameters by learning a posterior distribution over them. Experimental results on both synthetic and real datasets show that our approach significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods under short observation sequences.

Easy accessibility can often lead to over-consumption, as seen in food and alcohol habits. On video on-demand (VOD) services, this has recently been referred to as binge watching, where potentially entire seasons of TV shows are consumed in a single viewing session. While a user viewership model may reveal this binging behavior, creating an accurate model has several challenges, including censored data, deviations in the population, and the need to consider external influences on consumption habits. In this paper, we introduce a novel statistical mixture model that incorporates these factors and presents a first of its kind characterization of viewer consumption behavior using a real-world dataset that includes playback data from a VOD service. From our modeling, we tackle various predictive tasks to infer the consumption decisions of a user in a viewing session, including estimating the number of episodes they watch and classifying if they continue watching another episode. Using these insights, we then identify binge watching sessions based on deviation from normal viewing behavior. We observe different types of binging behavior, that binge watchers often view certain content out-of-order, and that binge watching is not a consistent behavior among our users. These insights and our findings have application in VOD revenue generation, consumer health applications, and customer retention analysis.