Dynamic graphs provide a flexible data abstraction for modelling many sorts of real-world systems, such as transport, trade, and social networks. Graph neural networks (GNNs) are powerful tools allowing for different kinds of prediction and inference on these systems, but getting a handle on uncertainty, especially in dynamic settings, is a challenging problem. In this work we propose to use a dynamic graph representation known in the tensor literature as the unfolding, to achieve valid prediction sets via conformal prediction. This representation, a simple graph, can be input to any standard GNN and does not require any modification to existing GNN architectures or conformal prediction routines. One of our key contributions is a careful mathematical consideration of the different inference scenarios which can arise in a dynamic graph modelling context. For a range of practically relevant cases, we obtain valid prediction sets with almost no assumptions, even dispensing with exchangeability. In a more challenging scenario, which we call the semi-inductive regime, we achieve valid prediction under stronger assumptions, akin to stationarity. We provide real data examples demonstrating validity, showing improved accuracy over baselines, and sign-posting different failure modes which can occur when those assumptions are violated.

Stability for dynamic network embeddings ensures that nodes behaving the same at different times receive the same embedding, allowing comparison of nodes in the network across time. We present attributed unfolded adjacency spectral embedding (AUASE), a stable unsupervised representation learning framework for dynamic networks in which nodes are attributed with time-varying covariate information. To establish stability, we prove uniform convergence to an associated latent position model. We quantify the benefits of our dynamic embedding by comparing with state-of-the-art network representation learning methods on three real attributed networks. To the best of our knowledge, AUASE is the only attributed dynamic embedding that satisfies stability guarantees without the need for ground truth labels, which we demonstrate provides significant improvements for link prediction and node classification.

We present a new representation learning framework, Intensity Profile Projection, for continuous-time dynamic network data. Given triples $(i,j,t)$, each representing a time-stamped ($t$) interaction between two entities ($i,j$), our procedure returns a continuous-time trajectory for each node, representing its behaviour over time. The framework consists of three stages: estimating pairwise intensity functions, e.g. via kernel smoothing; learning a projection which minimises a notion of intensity reconstruction error; and constructing evolving node representations via the learned projection. The trajectories satisfy two properties, known as structural and temporal coherence, which we see as fundamental for reliable inference. Moreoever, we develop estimation theory providing tight control on the error of any estimated trajectory, indicating that the representations could even be used in quite noise-sensitive follow-on analyses. The theory also elucidates the role of smoothing as a bias-variance trade-off, and shows how we can reduce the level of smoothing as the signal-to-noise ratio increases on account of the algorithm `borrowing strength' across the network.

We consider the problem of embedding a dynamic network, to obtain time-evolving vector representations of each node, which can then be used to describe changes in behaviour of individual nodes, communities, or the entire graph. Given this open-ended remit, we argue that two types of stability in the spatio-temporal positioning of nodes are desirable: to assign the same position, up to noise, to nodes behaving similarly at a given time (cross-sectional stability) and a constant position, up to noise, to a single node behaving similarly across different times (longitudinal stability). Similarity in behaviour is defined formally using notions of exchangeability under a dynamic latent position network model. By showing how this model can be recast as a multilayer random dot product graph, we demonstrate that unfolded adjacency spectral embedding satisfies both stability conditions. We also show how two alternative methods, omnibus and independent spectral embedding, alternately lack one or the other form of stability.