Indoor temperature prediction is crucial for decision-making in central heating systems. Beyond accuracy, predictions shall be interpretable, i.e. conform to the laws of physics; otherwise, it may lead to system failures or unsafe conditions. However, deep learning models often face criticism regarding interpretability, which limits their application in such settings. To this end, we propose a Spatio-Temporal Consistency enhanced Differential Network (CONST) for interpretable indoor temperature prediction. Our approach mainly consists of a differential predictive module and a spatio-temporal consistency module. Modeling the influential factors, the first module solves the issue of multicollinearity through the differential operation. Considering the heterogeneity of global and local data distributions, the second module characterizes the temporal and spatial consistency to mine the universal pattern by multi-task learning, thereby improving the prediction interpretability. Besides, we propose a set of interpretability metrics to overcome the drawbacks of partial dependence plot metric, which are more practical, zero-centered, flexible, and numerical. We conclude experiments on a real-world dataset with four heating stations. The results demonstrate the advantages of our approach over various baselines, where the interpretability can be improved by more than 8 times on cRPD while maintaining high accuracy. We developed CONST on the SmartHeat system, providing hourly indoor temperature forecasts for 13 heating stations in northern China.

Predicting flows (e.g., the traffic of vehicles, crowds, and bikes), consisting of the in-out traffic at a node and transitions between different nodes, in a spatio-temporal network plays an important role in transportation systems. However, this is a very challenging problem, affected by multiple complex factors, such as the spatial correlation between different locations, temporal correlation among different time intervals, and external factors (like events and weather). In addition, the flow at a node (called node flow) and transitions between nodes (edge flow) mutually influence each other. To address these issues, we propose a multitask deep-learning framework that simultaneously predicts the node flow and edge flow throughout a spatio-temporal network. Based on fully convolutional networks, our approach designs two sophisticated models for predicting node flow and edge flow, respectively. These two models are connected by coupling their latent representations of middle layers, and trained together. The external factor is also integrated into the framework through a gating fusion mechanism. In the edge flow prediction model, we employ an embedding component to deal with the sparse transitions between nodes. We evaluate our method based on the taxicab data in Beijing and New York City. Experimental results show the advantages of our method beyond 11 baselines, such as ConvLSTM, CNN, and Markov Random Field.

Forecasting the flow of crowds is of great importance to traffic management and public safety, and very challenging as it is affected by many complex factors, such as inter-region traffic, events, and weather. We propose a deep-learning-based approach, called ST-ResNet, to collectively forecast the inflow and outflow of crowds in each and every region of a city. We design an end-to-end structure of ST-ResNet based on unique properties of spatio-temporal data. More specifically, we employ the residual neural network framework to model the temporal closeness, period, and trend properties of crowd traffic. For each property, we design a branch of residual convolutional units, each of which models the spatial properties of crowd traffic. ST-ResNet learns to dynamically aggregate the output of the three residual neural networks based on data, assigning different weights to different branches and regions. The aggregation is further combined with external factors, such as weather and day of the week, to predict the final traffic of crowds in each and every region. Experiments on two types of crowd flows in Beijing and New York City (NYC) demonstrate that the proposed ST-ResNet outperforms six well-known methods.

Advances in location-acquisition and wireless communication technologies have led to wider availability of spatio-temporal (ST) data, which has unique spatial properties (i.e. geographical hierarchy and distance) and temporal properties (i.e. closeness, period and trend). In this paper, we propose a Deep-learning-based prediction model for Spatio-Temporal data (DeepST). We leverage ST domain knowledge to design the architecture of DeepST, which is comprised of two components: spatio-temporal and global. The spatio-temporal component employs the framework of convolutional neural networks to simultaneously model spatial near and distant dependencies, and temporal closeness, period and trend. The global component is used to capture global factors, such as day of the week, weekday or weekend. Using DeepST, we build a real-time crowd flow forecasting system called UrbanFlow1. Experiment results on diverse ST datasets verify DeepST's ability to capture ST data's spatio-temporal properties, showing the advantages of DeepST beyond four baseline methods.