MOTIVATION: Ranking gene feature sets is a key issue for both phenotype classification, for instance, tumor classification in a DNA microarray experiment, and prediction in the context of genetic regulatory networks. Two broad methods are available to estimate the error (misclassification rate) of a classifier. Resubstitution fits a single classifier to the data, and applies this classifier in turn to each data observation. Cross-validation (in leave-one-out form) removes each observation in turn, constructs the classifier, and then computes whether this leave-one-out classifier correctly classifies the deleted observation. Resubstitution typically underestimates classifier error, severely so in many cases. Cross-validation has the advantage of producing an effectively unbiased error estimate, but the estimate is highly variable. In many applications it is not the misclassification rate per se that is of interest, but rather the construction of gene sets that have the potential to classify or predict. Hence, one needs to rank feature sets based on their performance. RESULTS: A model-based approach is used to compare the ranking performances of resubstitution and cross-validation for classification based on real-valued feature sets and for prediction in the context of probabilistic Boolean networks (PBNs). For classification, a Gaussian model is considered, along with classification via linear discriminant analysis and the 3-nearest-neighbor classification rule. Prediction is examined in the steady-distribution of a PBN. Three metrics are proposed to compare feature-set ranking based on error estimation with ranking based on the true error, which is known owing to the model-based approach. In all cases, resubstitution is competitive with cross-validation relative to ranking accuracy. This is in addition to the enormous savings in computation time afforded by resubstitution.

MOTIVATION: One important application of gene expression microarray data is classification of samples into categories, such as the type of tumor. The use of microarrays allows simultaneous monitoring of thousands of genes expressions per sample. This ability to measure gene expression en masse has resulted in data with the number of variables p(genes) far exceeding the number of samples N. Standard statistical methodologies in classification and prediction do not work well or even at all when N < p. Modification of existing statistical methodologies or development of new methodologies is needed for the analysis of microarray data. RESULTS: We propose a novel analysis procedure for classifying (predicting) human tumor samples based on microarray gene expressions. This procedure involves dimension reduction using Partial Least Squares (PLS) and classification using Logistic Discrimination (LD) and Quadratic Discriminant Analysis (QDA). We compare PLS to the well known dimension reduction method of Principal Components Analysis (PCA). Under many circumstances PLS proves superior; we illustrate a condition when PCA particularly fails to predict well relative to PLS. The proposed methods were applied to five different microarray data sets involving various human tumor samples: (1) normal versus ovarian tumor; (2) Acute Myeloid Leukemia (AML) versus Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia (ALL); (3) Diffuse Large B-cell Lymphoma (DLBCLL) versus B-cell Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia (BCLL); (4) normal versus colon tumor; and (5) Non-Small-Cell-Lung-Carcinoma (NSCLC) versus renal samples. Stability of classification results and methods were further assessed by re-randomization studies.

MOTIVATION: Discrimination between two classes such as normal and cancer samples and between two types of cancers based on gene expression profiles is an important problem which has practical implications as well as the potential to further our understanding of gene expression of various cancer cells. Classification or discrimination of more than two groups or classes (multi-class) is also needed. The need for multi-class discrimination methodologies is apparent in many microarray experiments where various cancer types are considered simultaneously. RESULTS: Thus, in this paper we present the extension to the classification methodology proposed earlier Nguyen and Rocke (2002b; Bioinformatics, 18, 39-50) to classify cancer samples from multiple classes. The methodologies proposed in this paper are applied to four gene expression data sets with multiple classes: (a) a hereditary breast cancer data set with (1) BRCA1-mutation, (2) BRCA2-mutation and (3) sporadic breast cancer samples, (b) an acute leukemia data set with (1) acute myeloid leukemia (AML), (2) T-cell acute lymphoblastic leukemia (T-ALL) and (3) B-cell acute lymphoblastic leukemia (B-ALL) samples, (c) a lymphoma data set with (1) diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL), (2) B-cell chronic lymphocytic leukemia (BCLL) and (3) follicular lymphoma (FL) samples, and (d) the NCI60 data set with cell lines derived from cancers of various sites of origin. In addition, we evaluated the classification algorithms and examined the variability of the error rates using simulations based on randomization of the real data sets. We note that there are other methods for addressing multi-class prediction recently and our approach is along the line of Nguyen and Rocke (2002b; Bioinformatics, 18, 39-50). CONTACT: [email protected]; [email protected]

Abstract Motivation: Microarrays are increasingly used in cancer research. When gene transcription data from microarray experiments also contains patient survival information, it is often of interest to predict the survival times based on the gene expression. In this paper we consider the well-known proportional hazard (PH) regression model for survival analysis. Ordinarily, the PH model is used with a few covariates and many observations (subjects). We consider here the case that the number of covariates, p, exceeds the number of samples, N, a setting typical of gene expression data from DNA microarrays. Results: For a given vector of response values which are survival times and p gene expressions (covariates) we examine the problem of how to predict the survival probabilities, when N ≪ p. The approach taken to cope with the high dimensionality is to reduce the dimension using partial least squares with the response variable as the vector of survival times. After dimension reduction, the extracted PLS gene components are then used as covariates in a PH regression to predict the survival probabilities. We demonstrate the use of the methodology on two cDNA gene expression data sets, both containing survival data. The first data set contains 40 diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) tissue samples and the second data set contains 49 tissue samples from patients with locally advanced breast cancer in a prospective study. Availability: The methodology can be implemented using a combination of standard statistical methods, available, for example, in SAS. Sample SAS macro codes to implement the methods will be available at http://stat.tamu.edu/~dnguyen/supplemental.html Contact: [email protected]@ucdavis.edu * To whom correspondence should be addressed.