In drug discovery, highly automated high-throughput laboratories are used to screen a large number of compounds in search of effective drugs. These experiments are expensive, so one might hope to reduce their cost by only experimenting on a subset of the compounds, and predicting the outcomes of the remaining experiments. In this work, we model this scenario as a sequential subset selection problem: we aim to select the smallest set of candidates in order to achieve some desired level of accuracy for the system as a whole. Our key observation is that, if there is heterogeneity in the difficulty of the prediction problem across the input space, selectively obtaining the labels for the hardest examples in the acquisition pool will leave only the relatively easy examples to remain in the inference set, leading to better overall system performance. We call this mechanism inference set design, and propose the use of a confidence-based active learning solution to prune out these challenging examples. Our algorithm includes an explicit stopping criterion that interrupts the acquisition loop when it is sufficiently confident that the system has reached the target performance. Our empirical studies on image and molecular datasets, as well as a real-world large-scale biological assay, show that active learning for inference set design leads to significant reduction in experimental cost while retaining high system performance.

Sparse dictionary learning (DL) has emerged as a powerful approach to extract semantically meaningful concepts from the internals of large language models (LLMs) trained mainly in the text domain. In this work, we explore whether DL can extract meaningful concepts from less human-interpretable scientific data, such as vision foundation models trained on cell microscopy images, where limited prior knowledge exists about which high-level concepts should arise. We propose a novel combination of a sparse DL algorithm, Iterative Codebook Feature Learning (ICFL), with a PCA whitening pre-processing step derived from control data. Using this combined approach, we successfully retrieve biologically meaningful concepts, such as cell types and genetic perturbations. Moreover, we demonstrate how our method reveals subtle morphological changes arising from human-interpretable interventions, offering a promising new direction for scientific discovery via mechanistic interpretability in bioimaging.

Deriving insights from experimentally generated datasets requires methods that can account for random and systematic measurement errors and remove them in order to accurately represent the underlying effects of the conditions being tested. Here we present a framework for pretraining on large-scale microscopy datasets that includes three steps: (1) curating a set of diverse and self-consistent training samples, (2) scaling training of an appropriate foundation model architecture on this dataset, (3) evaluating intermediate layers of the trained model to identify the best representation for downstream tasks. Using this strategy, we present the largest foundation model for cell microscopy data to our knowledge, a new 1.9 billion-parameter ViT-G/8 MAE trained on over 8 billion microscopy image crops. Compared to a previous published ViT-L/8 MAE, our new model achieves a 60% improvement in linear separability of genetic perturbations and obtains the best overall performance on whole-genome relationship recall, batch correction replicate consistency, and compound-gene activity prediction benchmarks.

Causal representation learning has showed a variety of settings in which we can disentangle latent variables with identifiability guarantees (up to some reasonable equivalence class). Common to all of these approaches is the assumption that (1) the latent variables are represented as $d$-dimensional vectors, and (2) that the observations are the output of some injective generative function of these latent variables. While these assumptions appear benign, we show that when the observations are of multiple objects, the generative function is no longer injective and disentanglement fails in practice. We can address this failure by combining recent developments in object-centric learning and causal representation learning. By modifying the Slot Attention architecture (Locatello et al., 2020), we develop an object-centric architecture that leverages weak supervision from sparse perturbations to disentangle each object's properties. This approach is more data-efficient in the sense that it requires significantly fewer perturbations than a comparable approach that encodes to a Euclidean space and we show that this approach successfully disentangles the properties of a set of objects in a series of simple image-based disentanglement experiments.

Scientific hypotheses typically concern specific aspects of complex, imperfectly understood or entirely unknown mechanisms, such as the effect of gene expression levels on phenotypes or how microbial communities influence environmental health. Such queries are inherently causal (rather than purely associational), but in many settings, experiments can not be conducted directly on the target variables of interest, but are indirect. Therefore, they perturb the target variable, but do not remove potential confounding factors. If, additionally, the resulting experimental measurements are high-dimensional and the studied mechanisms nonlinear, the query of interest is generally not identified. We develop an adaptive strategy to design indirect experiments that optimally inform a targeted query about the ground truth mechanism in terms of sequentially narrowing the gap between an upper and lower bound on the query. While the general formulation consists of a bi-level optimization procedure, we derive an efficiently estimable analytical kernel-based estimator of the bounds for the causal effect, a query of key interest, and demonstrate the efficacy of our approach in confounded, multivariate, nonlinear synthetic settings.

Multimodal representation learning techniques typically require paired samples to learn shared representations, but collecting paired samples can be challenging in fields like biology, where measurement devices often destroy the samples. This paper presents an approach to address the challenge of aligning unpaired samples across disparate modalities in multimodal representation learning. We draw an analogy between potential outcomes in causal inference and potential views in multimodal observations, allowing us to leverage Rubin's framework to estimate a common space for matching samples. Our approach assumes experimentally perturbed samples by treatments, and uses this to estimate a propensity score from each modality. We show that the propensity score encapsulates all shared information between a latent state and treatment, and can be used to define a distance between samples. We experiment with two alignment techniques that leverage this distance---shared nearest neighbours (SNN) and optimal transport (OT) matching---and find that OT matching results in significant improvements over state-of-the-art alignment approaches in on synthetic multi-modal tasks, in real-world data from NeurIPS Multimodal Single-Cell Integration Challenge, and on a single cell microscopy to expression prediction task.

Instrumental variable (IV) methods are used to estimate causal effects in settings with unobserved confounding, where we cannot directly experiment on the treatment variable. Instruments are variables which only affect the outcome indirectly via the treatment variable(s). Most IV applications focus on low-dimensional treatments and crucially require at least as many instruments as treatments. This assumption is restrictive: in the natural sciences we often seek to infer causal effects of high-dimensional treatments (e.g., the effect of gene expressions or microbiota on health and disease), but can only run few experiments with a limited number of instruments (e.g., drugs or antibiotics). In such under-specified problems, the full treatment effect is not identifiable in a single experiment even in the linear case. We show that one can still reliably recover the projection of the treatment effect onto the instrumented subspace and develop techniques to consistently combine such partial estimates from different sets of instruments. We then leverage our combined estimators in an algorithm that iteratively proposes the most informative instruments at each round of experimentation to maximize the overall information about the full causal effect.

One of the grand challenges of cell biology is inferring the gene regulatory network (GRN) which describes interactions between genes and their products that control gene expression and cellular function. We can treat this as a causal discovery problem but with two non-standard challenges: (1) regulatory networks are inherently cyclic so we should not model a GRN as a directed acyclic graph (DAG), and (2) observations have significant measurement noise so for typical sample sizes, there will always be a large equivalence class of graphs that are likely given the data, and we want methods that capture this uncertainty. Existing methods either focus on challenge (1), identifying cyclic structure from dynamics, or on challenge (2) learning complex Bayesian posteriors over directed acyclic graphs, but not both. In this paper we leverage the fact that it is possible to estimate the ``velocity'' of the expression of a gene with RNA velocity techniques to develop an approach that addresses both challenges. Because we have access to velocity information, we can treat the Bayesian structure learning problem as a problem of sparse identification of a dynamical system, capturing cyclic feedback loops through time. We leverage Generative Flow Networks (GFlowNets) to estimate the posterior distribution over the combinatorial space of possible sparse dependencies. Our results indicate that our method learns posteriors that better encapsulate the distributions of cyclic structures compared to counterpart state-of-the-art Bayesian structure learning approaches.

Formulating real-world optimization problems often begins with making predictions from historical data (e.g., an optimizer that aims to recommend fast routes relies upon travel-time predictions). Typically, learning the prediction model used to generate the optimization problem and solving that problem are performed in two separate stages. Recent work has showed how such prediction models can be learned end-to-end by differentiating through the optimization task. Such methods often yield empirical improvements, which are typically attributed to end-to-end making better error tradeoffs than the standard loss function used in a two-stage solution. We refine this explanation and more precisely characterize when end-to-end can improve performance. When prediction targets are stochastic, a two-stage solution must make an a priori choice about which statistics of the target distribution to model---we consider expectations over prediction targets---while an end-to-end solution can make this choice adaptively. We show that the performance gap between a two-stage and end-to-end approach is closely related to the \emph{price of correlation} concept in stochastic optimization and show the implications of some existing POC results for the predict-then-optimize problem. We then consider a novel and particularly practical setting, where multiple prediction targets are combined to obtain each of the objective function’s coefficients. We give explicit constructions where (1) two-stage performs unboundedly worse than end-to-end; and (2) two-stage is optimal. We use simulations to experimentally quantify performance gaps and identify a wide range of real-world applications from the literature whose objective functions rely on multiple prediction targets, suggesting that end-to-end learning could yield significant improvements.

The theory of representation learning aims to build methods that provably invert the data generating process with minimal domain knowledge or any source of supervision. Most prior approaches require strong distributional assumptions on the latent variables and weak supervision (auxiliary information such as timestamps) to provide provable identification guarantees. In this work, we show that if one has weak supervision from observations generated by sparse perturbations of the latent variables--e.g. images in a reinforcement learning environment where actions move individual sprites--identification is achievable under unknown continuous latent distributions. We show that if the perturbations are applied only on mutually exclusive blocks of latents, we identify the latents up to those blocks. We also show that if these perturbation blocks overlap, we identify latents up to the smallest blocks shared across perturbations. Consequently, if there are blocks that intersect in one latent variable only, then such latents are identified up to permutation and scaling. We propose a natural estimation procedure based on this theory and illustrate it on low-dimensional synthetic and image-based experiments.

Instrumental variable methods provide a powerful approach to estimating causal effects in the presence of unobserved confounding. But a key challenge when applying them is the reliance on untestable "exclusion" assumptions that rule out any relationship between the instrument variable and the response that is not mediated by the treatment. In this paper, we show how to perform consistent IV estimation despite violations of the exclusion assumption. In particular, we show that when one has multiple candidate instruments, only a majority of these candidates—or, more generally, the modal candidate-response relationship—needs to be valid to estimate the causal effect. Our approach uses an estimate of the modal prediction from an ensemble of instrumental variable estimators. The technique is simple to apply and is "black-box" in the sense that it may be used with any instrumental variable estimator as long as the treatment effect is identified for each valid instrument independently. As such, it is compatible with recent machine-learning based estimators that allow for the estimation of conditional average treatment effects (CATE) on complex, high dimensional data. Experimentally, we achieve accurate estimates of conditional average treatment effects using an ensemble of deep network-based estimators, including on a challenging simulated Mendelian Randomization problem.

Strangely enough, it is possible to use machine learning models to predict the satisfiability status of hard SAT problems with accuracy considerably higher than random guessing. Existing methods have relied on extensive, manual feature engineering and computationally complex features (e.g., based on linear programming relaxations). We show for the first time that even better performance can be achieved by end-to-end learning methods — i.e., models that map directly from raw problem inputs to predictions and take only linear time to evaluate. Our work leverages deep network models which capture a key invariance exhibited by SAT problems: satisfiability status is unaffected by reordering variables and clauses. We showed that end-to-end learning with deep networks can outperform previous work on random 3-SAT problems at the solubility phase transition, where: (1) exactly 50% of problems are satisfiable; and (2) empirical runtimes of known solution methods scale exponentially with problem size (e.g., we achieved 84% prediction accuracy on 600-variable problems, which take hours to solve with state-of-the-art methods). We also showed that deep networks can generalize across problem sizes (e.g., a network trained only on 100-variable problems, which typically take about 10 ms to solve, achieved 81% accuracy on 600-variable problems).

We consider the problem of wisely using a limited budget to label a small subset of a large unlabeled dataset. For example, consider the NLP problem of word sense disambiguation. For any word, we have a set of candidate labels from a knowledge base, but the label set is not necessarily representative of what occurs in the data: there may exist labels in the knowledge base that very rarely occur in the corpus because the sense is rare in modern English; and conversely there may exist true labels that do not exist in our knowledge base. Our aim is to obtain a classifier that performs as well as possible on examples of each “common class” that occurs with frequency above a given threshold in the unlabeled set while annotating as few examples as possible from “rare classes” whose labels occur with less than this frequency. The challenge is that we are not informed which labels are common and which are rare, and the true label distribution may exhibit extreme skew. We describe an active learning approach that (1) explicitly searches for rare classes by leveraging the contextual embedding spaces provided by modern language models, and (2) incorporates a stopping rule that ignores classes once we prove that they occur below our target threshold with high probability. We prove that our algorithm only costs logarithmically more than a hypothetical approach that knows all true label frequencies and show experimentally that incorporating automated search can significantly reduce the number of samples needed to reach target accuracy levels.

We use deep learning to model interactions across two or more sets of objects, such as user{–}movie ratings or protein{–}drug bindings. The canonical representation of such interactions is a matrix (or tensor) with an exchangeability property: the encoding’s meaning is not changed by permuting rows or columns. We argue that models should hence be Permutation Equivariant (PE): constrained to make the same predictions across such permutations. We present a parameter-sharing scheme and prove that it is maximally expressive under the PE constraint. This scheme yields three benefits. First, we demonstrate performance competitive with the state of the art on multiple matrix completion benchmarks. Second, our models require a number of parameters independent of the numbers of objects and thus scale well to large datasets. Third, models can be queried about new objects that were not available at training time, but for which interactions have since been observed. We observed surprisingly good generalization performance on this matrix extrapolation task, both within domains (e.g., new users and new movies drawn from the same distribution used for training) and even across domains (e.g., predicting music ratings after training on movie ratings).

Counterfactual prediction requires understanding causal relationships between so-called treatment and outcome variables. This paper provides a recipe for augmenting deep learning methods to accurately characterize such relationships in the presence of instrument variables (IVs) – sources of treatment randomization that are conditionally independent from the outcomes. Our IV specification resolves into two prediction tasks that can be solved with deep neural nets: a first-stage network for treatment prediction and a second-stage network whose loss function involves integration over the conditional treatment distribution. This Deep IV framework allows us to take advantage of off-the-shelf supervised learning techniques to estimate causal effects by adapting the loss function. Experiments show that it outperforms existing machine learning approaches.

Predicting the behavior of human participants in strategic settings is an important problem in many domains. Most existing work either assumes that participants are perfectly rational, or attempts to directly model each participant's cognitive processes based on insights from cognitive psychology and experimental economics. In this work, we present an alternative, a deep learning approach that automatically performs cognitive modeling without relying on such expert knowledge. We introduce a novel architecture that allows a single network to generalize across different input and output dimensions by using matrix units rather than scalar units, and show that its performance significantly outperforms that of the previous state of the art, which relies on expert-constructed features.