The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), in 2019, designated Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) as a serious antimicrobial resistance threat. The risk of acquiring MRSA and suffering life-threatening consequences due to it remains especially high for hospitalized patients due to a unique combination of factors, including: co-morbid conditions, immuno suppression, antibiotic use, and risk of contact with contaminated hospital workers and equipment. In this paper, we present a novel generative probabilistic model, GenHAI, for modeling sequences of MRSA test results outcomes for patients during a single hospitalization. This model can be used to answer many important questions from the perspectives of hospital administrators for mitigating the risk of MRSA infections. Our model is based on the probabilistic programming paradigm, and can be used to approximately answer a variety of predictive, causal, and counterfactual questions. We demonstrate the efficacy of our model by comparing it against discriminative and generative machine learning models using two real-world datasets.

Healthcare acquired infections (HAIs) (e.g., Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus infection) have complex transmission pathways, spreading not just via direct person-to-person contacts, but also via contaminated surfaces. Prior work in mathematical epidemiology has led to a class of models – which we call load sharing models – that provide a discrete-time, stochastic formalization of HAI-spread on temporal contact networks. The focus of this paper is the source detection problem for the load sharing model. The source detection problem has been studied extensively in SEIR type models, but this prior work does not apply to load sharing models. We show that a natural formulation of the source detection problem for the load sharing model is computationally hard, even to approximate. We then present two alternate formulations that are much more tractable. The tractability of our problems depends crucially on the submodularity of the expected number of infections as a function of the source set. Prior techniques for showing submodularity, such as the "live graph" technique are not applicable for the load sharing model and our key technical contribution is to use a more sophisticated "coupling" technique to show the submodularity result. We propose algorithms for our two problem formulations by extending existing algorithmic results from submodular optimization and combining these with an expectation propagation heuristic for the load sharing model that leads to orders-of-magnitude speedup. We present experimental results on temporal contact networks based on fine-grained EMR data from three different hospitals. Our results on synthetic outbreaks on these networks show that our algorithms outperform baselines by up to 5.97 times. Furthermore, case studies based on hospital outbreaks of Clostridioides difficile infection show that our algorithms identify clinically meaningful sources.

Phenomics is an emerging branch of modern biology that uses high throughput phenotyping tools to capture multiple environmental and phenotypic traits, often at massive spatial and temporal scales. The resulting high dimensional data represent a treasure trove of information for providing an in-depth understanding of how multiple factors interact and contribute to the overall growth and behavior of different genotypes. However, computational tools that can parse through such complex data and aid in extracting plausible hypotheses are currently lacking. In this article, we present Hyppo-X, a new algorithmic approach to visually explore complex phenomics data and in the process characterize the role of environment on phenotypic traits. We model the problem as one of unsupervised structure discovery, and use emerging principles from algebraic topology and graph theory for discovering higher-order structures of complex phenomics data. We present an open source software which has interactive visualization capabilities to facilitate data navigation and hypothesis formulation. We test and evaluate Hyppo-X on two real-world plant (maize) data sets. Our results demonstrate the ability of our approach to delineate divergent subpopulation-level behavior. Notably, our approach shows how environmental factors could influence phenotypic behavior, and how that effect varies across different genotypes and different time scales. To the best of our knowledge, this effort provides one of the first approaches to systematically formalize the problem of hypothesis extraction for phenomics data. Considering the infancy of the phenomics field, tools that help users explore complex data and extract plausible hypotheses in a data-guided manner will be critical to future advancements in the use of such data.