Mechanistic models of biological processes can explain observed phenomena and predict responses to a perturbation. A mathematical model is typically constructed using expert knowledge and informal reasoning to generate a mechanistic explanation for a given observation. Although this approach works well for simple systems with abundant data and well-established principles, quantitative biology is often faced with a dearth of both data and knowledge about a process, thus making it challenging to identify and validate all possible mechanistic hypothesis underlying a system behavior. To overcome these limitations, we introduce a Bayesian multimodel inference (Bayes-MMI) methodology, which quantifies how mechanistic hypotheses can explain a given experimental datasets, and concurrently, how each dataset informs a given model hypothesis, thus enabling hypothesis space exploration in the context of available data. We demonstrate this approach to probe standing questions about heterogeneity, lineage plasticity, and cell-cell interactions in tumor growth mechanisms of small cell lung cancer (SCLC). We integrate three datasets that each formulated different explanations for tumor growth mechanisms in SCLC, apply Bayes-MMI and find that the data supports model predictions for tumor evolution promoted by high lineage plasticity, rather than through expanding rare stem-like populations. In addition, the models predict that in the presence of cells associated with the SCLC-N or SCLC-A2 subtypes, the transition from the SCLC-A subtype to the SCLC-Y subtype through an intermediate is decelerated. Together, these predictions provide a testable hypothesis for observed juxtaposed results in SCLC growth and a mechanistic interpretation for tumor treatment resistance.

Mathematical models are often used to explore network-driven cellular processes from a systems perspective. However, a dearth of quantitative data suitable for model calibration leads to models with parameter unidentifiability and questionable predictive power. Here we introduce a combined Bayesian and Machine Learning Measurement Model approach to explore how quantitative and non-quantitative data constrain models of apoptosis execution within a missing data context. We find model prediction accuracy and certainty strongly depend on rigorous data-driven formulations of the measurement, and the size and make-up of the datasets. For instance, two orders of magnitude more ordinal (e.g., immunoblot) data are necessary to achieve accuracy comparable to quantitative (e.g., fluorescence) data for calibration of an apoptosis execution model. Notably, ordinal and nominal (e.g., cell fate observations) non-quantitative data synergize to reduce model uncertainty and improve accuracy. Finally, we demonstrate the potential of a data-driven Measurement Model approach to identify model features that could lead to informative experimental measurements and improve model predictive power.

MOTIVATION: Computational systems biology analyses typically make use of multiple software and their dependencies, which are often run across heterogeneous compute environments. This can introduce differences in performance and reproducibility. Capturing metadata (e.g. package versions, GPU model) currently requires repetitious code and is difficult to store centrally for analysis. Even where virtual environments and containers are used, updates over time mean that versioning metadata should still be captured within analysis pipelines to guarantee reproducibility. RESULTS: Microbench is a simple and extensible Python package to automate metadata capture to a file or Redis database. Captured metadata can include execution time, software package versions, environment variables, hardware information, Python version and more, with plugins. We present three case studies demonstrating Microbench usage to benchmark code execution and examine environment metadata for reproducibility purposes. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: Install from the Python Package Index using pip install microbench. Source code is available from https://github.com/alubbock/microbench. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Modern analytical techniques enable researchers to collect data about cellular states, before and after perturbations. These states can be characterized using analytical techniques, but the inference of regulatory interactions that explain and predict changes in these states remains a challenge. Here we present a generalizable, unsupervised approach to generate parameter-free, logic-based models of cellular processes, described by multiple discrete states. Our algorithm employs a Hamming-distance based approach to formulate, test, and identify optimized logic rules that link two states. Our approach comprises two steps. First, a model with no prior knowledge except for the mapping between initial and attractor states is built. We then employ biological constraints to improve model fidelity. Our algorithm automatically recovers the relevant dynamics for the explored models and recapitulates key aspects of the biochemical species concentration dynamics in the original model. We present the advantages and limitations of our work and discuss how our approach could be used to infer logic-based mechanisms of signaling, gene-regulatory, or other input-output processes describable by the Boolean formalism.

Adopting a systems approach, we devise a general workflow to define actionable subtypes in human cancers. Applied to small cell lung cancer (SCLC), the workflow identifies four subtypes based on global gene expression patterns and ontologies. Three correspond to known subtypes (SCLC-A, SCLC-N, and SCLC-Y), while the fourth is a previously undescribed ASCL1+ neuroendocrine variant (NEv2, or SCLC-A2). Tumor deconvolution with subtype gene signatures shows that all of the subtypes are detectable in varying proportions in human and mouse tumors. To understand how multiple stable subtypes can arise within a tumor, we infer a network of transcription factors and develop BooleaBayes, a minimally-constrained Boolean rule-fitting approach. In silico perturbations of the network identify master regulators and destabilizers of its attractors. Specific to NEv2, BooleaBayes predicts ELF3 and NR0B1 as master regulators of the subtype, and TCF3 as a master destabilizer. Since the four subtypes exhibit differential drug sensitivity, with NEv2 consistently least sensitive, these findings may lead to actionable therapeutic strategies that consider SCLC intratumoral heterogeneity. Our systems-level approach should generalize to other cancer types.

Summary: Biological models contain many parameters whose values are difficult to measure directly via experimentation and therefore require calibration against experimental data. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are suitable to estimate multivariate posterior model parameter distributions, but these methods may exhibit slow or premature convergence in high-dimensional search spaces. Here, we present PyDREAM, a Python implementation of the (Multiple-Try) Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis [DREAM(ZS)] algorithm developed by Vrugt and ter Braak (2008) and Laloy and Vrugt (2012). PyDREAM achieves excellent performance for complex, parameter-rich models and takes full advantage of distributed computing resources, facilitating parameter inference and uncertainty estimation of CPU-intensive biological models. Availability and implementation: PyDREAM is freely available under the GNU GPLv3 license from the Lopez lab GitHub repository at http://github.com/LoLab-VU/PyDREAM. Contact: [email protected]. Supplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

SUMMARY: A major barrier to the practical utilization of large, complex models of biochemical systems is the lack of open-source computational tools to evaluate model behaviors over high-dimensional parameter spaces. This is due to the high computational expense of performing thousands to millions of model simulations required for statistical analysis. To address this need, we have implemented a user-friendly interface between cupSODA, a GPU-powered kinetic simulator, and PySB, a Python-based modeling and simulation framework. For three example models of varying size, we show that for large numbers of simulations PySB/cupSODA achieves order-of-magnitude speedups relative to a CPU-based ordinary differential equation integrator. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: The PySB/cupSODA interface has been integrated into the PySB modeling framework (version 1.4.0), which can be installed from the Python Package Index (PyPI) using a Python package manager such as pip. cupSODA source code and precompiled binaries (Linux, Mac OS/X, Windows) are available at github.com/aresio/cupSODA (requires an Nvidia GPU; developer.nvidia.com/cuda-gpus). Additional information about PySB is available at pysb.org. CONTACT: [email protected] or [email protected]. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Dysregulation of iron metabolism in cancer is well documented and it has been suggested that there is interdependence between excess iron and increased cancer incidence and progression. In an effort to better understand the linkages between iron metabolism and breast cancer, a predictive mathematical model of an expanded iron homeostasis pathway was constructed that includes species involved in iron utilization, oxidative stress response and oncogenic pathways. The model leads to three predictions. The first is that overexpression of iron regulatory protein 2 (IRP2) recapitulates many aspects of the alterations in free iron and iron-related proteins in cancer cells without affecting the oxidative stress response or the oncogenic pathways included in the model. This prediction was validated by experimentation. The second prediction is that iron-related proteins are dramatically affected by mitochondrial ferritin overexpression. This prediction was validated by results in the pertinent literature not used for model construction. The third prediction is that oncogenic Ras pathways contribute to altered iron homeostasis in cancer cells. This prediction was validated by a combination of simulation experiments of Ras overexpression and catalase knockout in conjunction with the literature. The model successfully captures key aspects of iron metabolism in breast cancer cells and provides a framework upon which more detailed models can be built.