Bayesian optimization with Gaussian processes (GP) is commonly used to optimize black-box functions. The Matérn and the Radial Basis Function (RBF) covariance functions are used frequently, but they do not make any assumptions about the domain of the function, which may limit their applicability in bounded domains. To address the limitation, we introduce the Beta kernel, a non-stationary kernel induced by a product of Beta distribution density functions. Such a formulation allows our kernel to naturally model functions on bounded domains. We present statistical evidence supporting the hypothesis that the kernel exhibits an exponential eigendecay rate, based on empirical analyses of its spectral properties across different settings. Our experimental results demonstrate the robustness of the Beta kernel in modeling functions with optima located near the faces or vertices of the unit hypercube. The experiments show that our kernel consistently outperforms a wide range of kernels, including the well-known Matérn and RBF, in different problems, including synthetic function optimization and the compression of vision and language models.

Accurate retinal vessel (RV) segmentation is a crucial step in the quantitative assessment of retinal vasculature, which is needed for the early detection of retinal diseases and other conditions. Numerous studies have been conducted to tackle the problem of segmenting vessels automatically using a pixel-wise classification approach. The common practice of creating ground truth labels is to categorize pixels as foreground and background. This approach is, however, biased, and it ignores the uncertainty of a human annotator when it comes to annotating e.g. thin vessels. In this work, we propose a simple and effective method that casts the RV segmentation task as an image-level regression. For this purpose, we first introduce a novel Segmentation Annotation Uncertainty-Aware (SAUNA) transform, which adds pixel uncertainty to the ground truth using the pixel's closeness to the annotation boundary and vessel thickness. To train our model with soft labels, we generalize the earlier proposed Jaccard metric loss to arbitrary hyper-cubes for soft Jaccard index (Intersection-over-Union) optimization. Additionally, we employ a stable version of the Focal-L1 loss for pixel-wise regression. We conduct thorough experiments and compare our method to a diverse set of baselines across 5 retinal image datasets. Our empirical results indicate that the integration of the SAUNA transform and these segmentation losses led to significant performance boosts for different segmentation models. Par-ticularly, our methodology enables UNet-like architectures to substantially outperform computationally-intensive base-lines (see Fig. 1). Our implementation is available at https://github.com/Oulu-IMEDS/SAUNA.

Knee Osteoarthritis (KOA) is a prevalent chronic musculoskeletal condition with no currently available treatment. Predicting its progression is difficult due to its varied manifestation. Recent studies highlight the potential of using multimodal data and Deep Learning (DL) for prediction, though evidence is still emerging. In our study, we leveraged DL, specifically, a Transformer model, to fuse multimodal knee imaging data. We analyzed its performance across different progression horizons - from short-term to long-term - using a large dataset (n = 3967/2421) from the Osteoarthritis Initiative. We show that structural knee MRI allows identifying radiographic KOA progressors on par with multimodal fusion approaches, achieving an area under the ROC curve (ROC AUC) of 0.70-0.76 and Average Precision (AP) of 0.15-0.54 in horizons from 2 to 8 years. Multimodal approach using X-ray, structural and compositional MR images was more effective for predicting 1-year progression, achieving a ROC AUC of 0.76 (0.04) and AP of 0.13 (0.04). Our follow-up analysis suggests that prediction from the imaging data is particularly accurate for post-traumatic cases, and we further investigate which subject subgroups may benefit the most. The study offers new insights into multimodal imaging of KOA and brings a unified data-driven framework for studying its progression end-to-end, providing new tools to enhance clinical trial design. The source code of our framework and the pre-trained models are made publicly available.

Proper scoring rules evaluate the quality of probabilistic predictions, playing an essential role in the pursuit of accurate and well-calibrated models. Every proper score decomposes into two fundamental components – proper calibration error and refinement – utilizing a Bregman divergence. While uncertainty calibration has gained significant attention, current literature lacks a general estimator for these quantities with known statistical properties. To address this gap, we propose a method that allows consistent, and asymptotically unbiased estimation of all proper calibration errors and refinement terms. In particular, we introduce Kullback-Leibler calibration error, induced by the commonly used cross-entropy loss. As part of our results, we prove the relation between refinement and f-divergences, which implies information monotonicity in neural networks, regardless of which proper scoring rule is optimized. Our experiments validate empirically the claimed properties of the proposed estimator and suggest that the selection of a post-hoc calibration method should be determined by the particular calibration error of interest.

Despite their impressive predictive performance in various computer vision tasks, deep neural networks (DNNs) tend to make overly confident predictions, which hinders their widespread use in safety-critical applications. While there have been recent attempts to calibrate DNNs, most of these efforts have primarily been focused on classification tasks, thus neglecting DNN-based object detectors. Although several recent works addressed calibration for object detection and proposed differentiable penalties, none of them are consistent estimators of established concepts in calibration. In this work, we tackle the challenge of defining and estimating calibration error specifically for this task. In particular, we adapt the definition of classification calibration error to handle the nuances associated with object detection, and predictions in structured output spaces more generally. Furthermore, we propose a consistent and differentiable estimator of the detection calibration error, utilizing kernel density estimation. Our experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our estimator against competing train-time and post-hoc calibration methods, while maintaining similar detection performance.

Deep neural networks are often applied to medical images to automate the problem of medical diagnosis. However, a more clinically relevant question that practitioners usually face is how to predict the future trajectory of a disease. Current methods for prognosis or disease trajectory forecasting often require domain knowledge and are complicated to apply. In this paper, we formulate the prognosis prediction problem as a one-to-many prediction problem. Inspired by a clinical decision-making process with two agents-a radiologist and a general practitioner - we predict prognosis with two transformer-based components that share information with each other. The first transformer in this framework aims to analyze the imaging data, and the second one leverages its internal states as inputs, also fusing them with auxiliary clinical data. The temporal nature of the problem is modeled within the transformer states, allowing us to treat the forecasting problem as a multi-task classification, for which we propose a novel loss. We show the effectiveness of our approach in predicting the development of structural knee osteoarthritis changes and forecasting Alzheimer's disease clinical status directly from raw multi-modal data. The proposed method outperforms multiple state-of-the-art baselines with respect to performance and calibration, both of which are needed for real-world applications. An open-source implementation of our method is made publicly available at https://github.com/Oulu-IMEDS/CLIMATv2.

Knee osteoarthritis (OA) is one of the highest disability factors in the world. This musculoskeletal disorder is assessed from clinical symptoms, and typically confirmed via radiographic assessment. This visual assessment done by a radiologist requires experience, and suffers from moderate to high inter-observer variability. The recent literature has shown that deep learning methods can reliably perform the OA severity assessment according to the gold standard Kellgren-Lawrence (KL) grading system. However, these methods require large amounts of labeled data, which are costly to obtain. In this study, we propose the Semixup algorithm, a semi-supervised learning (SSL) approach to leverage unlabeled data. Semixup relies on consistency regularization using in- and out-of-manifold samples, together with interpolated consistency. On an independent test set, our method significantly outperformed other state-of-the-art SSL methods in most cases. Finally, when compared to a well-tuned fully supervised baseline that yielded a balanced accuracy (BA) of 70.9 ± 0.8% on the test set, Semixup had comparable performance - BA of 71 ± 0.8% (p = 0.368) while requiring 6 times less labeled data. These results show that our proposed SSL method allows building fully automatic OA severity assessment tools with datasets that are available outside research settings.

This paper addresses the challenge of dense pixel correspondence estimation between two images. This problem is closely related to optical flow estimation task where ConvNets (CNNs) have recently achieved significant progress. While optical flow methods produce very accurate results for the small pixel translation and limited appearance variation scenarios, they hardly deal with the strong geometric transformations that we consider in this work. In this paper, we propose a coarse-to-fine CNN-based framework that can leverage the advantages of optical flow approaches and extend them to the case of large transformations providing dense and subpixel accurate estimates. It is trained on synthetic transformations and demonstrates very good performance to unseen, realistic, data. Further, we apply our method to the problem of relative camera pose estimation and demonstrate that the model outperforms existing dense approaches.