Terrestrial ecosystems constitute a major component of the global carbon sink and play a critical role in regulating the global carbon cycle. Although process-based models such as the Ecosystem Demography (ED) model are widely used to simulate these dynamics and widely adopted in research and applications, they remain computationally intensive and are not well suited for large-scale (e.g., global) projections at high spatial and temporal resolution, or under wide-range of future scenarios. AI-based emulators of process-based physical models have emerged as promising ways to accelerate the computation. However, there are several challenges in developing emulators for ecosystem processes, including error accumulation over long sequences, single-step initial conditions, and high-dimensional environmental conditions. Existing works often rely on time-series patterns in look-back windows, which are not well-suited for the problem with single-step initial conditions. Moreover, they often do not consider uncertainty, making it hard to know when the approximations are highly confident and when the results may need to be updated, e.g., by the process-based models. To address these limitations, we introduce EcoDiffusion, a conditional diffusion framework tailored for ecosystem dynamics emulation. We evaluated EcoDiffusion at locations distributed worldwide under different scenarios and showed that it demonstrated significant improvements over existing models.

Monitoring individual tree mortality at scale has been found to be crucial for understanding forest loss, ecosystem resilience, carbon fluxes, and climate-induced impacts. However, the fine-granularity monitoring faces major challenges on both the data and methodology sides because: (1) finding isolated individual-level tree deaths requires high-resolution remote sensing images with broad coverage, and (2) compared to regular geo-objects (e.g., buildings), dead trees often exhibit weaker contrast and high variability across tree types, landscapes and ecosystems. Existing datasets on tree mortality primarily rely on moderate-resolution satellite imagery (e.g., 30m resolution), which aims to detect large-patch wipe-outs but is unable to recognize individual-level tree mortality events. Several efforts have explored alternatives via very-high-resolution drone imagery. However, drone images are highly expensive and can only be collected at local scales, which are therefore not suitable for national-scale applications and beyond. To bridge the gaps,we introduce TreeFinder, the first high-resolution remote sensing benchmark dataset designed for individual-level tree mortality mapping across the Contiguous United States (CONUS). Specifically, the dataset uses NAIP imagery at 0.6m resolution that provides wall-to-wall coverage of the entire CONUS. TreeFinder contains images with pixel-level labels generated via extensive manual annotation that covers forested areas in 48 states with over 23,000 hectares. All annotations are rigorously validated using multi-temporal NAIP images and auxiliary vegetation indices from remote sensing imagery. Moreover, TreeFinder includes multiple evaluation scenarios to test the models' ability in generalizing across different geographic regions, climate zones, and forests with different plant function types. Finally, we develop benchmarks using a suite of semantic segmentation models, including both convolutional architectures and more recent foundation models based on vision transformers for general and remote sensing images. Our dataset and code are publicly available on Kaggle and GitHub: https://www.kaggle.com/datasets/zhihaow/tree-finder and https://github.com/zhwang0/treefinder.

Forest ecosystems play a critical role in the Earth system as major carbon sinks that are essential for carbon neutralization and climate change mitigation. However, the Earth has undergone significant deforestation and forest degradation, and the remaining forested areas are also facing increasing pressures from socioeconomic factors and climate change, potentially pushing them towards tipping points.Responding to the grand challenge, a theory-based Ecosystem Demography (ED) model has been continuously developed over the past two decades and serves as a key component in major initiatives, including the Global Carbon Budget, NASA Carbon Monitoring System, and US Greenhouse Gas Center. Despite its growing importance in combating climate change and shaping carbon policies, ED's expensive computation significantly limits its ability to estimate carbon dynamics at the global scale with high spatial resolution.Recently, machine learning (ML) models have shown promising potential in approximating theory-based models with interesting success in various domains including weather forecasting, thanks to the open-source benchmark datasets made available.However, there are currently no publicly available ML-ready datasets for global carbon dynamics forecasting in forest ecosystems. The limited data availability hinders the development of corresponding ML emulators. Furthermore, the inputs needed for running ED are highly complex with over a hundred variables from various remote sensing products. To bridge the gap, we develop a new ML-ready benchmark dataset, \textit{CarbonGlobe}, for carbon dynamics forecasting, featuring that: (1) the data has a global-scale coverage at 0.5$^\circ$ resolution; (2) the temporal range spans 40 years; (3) the inputs integrate extensive multi-source data from different sensing products, with calibrated outputs from ED; (4) the data is formatted in ML-ready forms and split into different evaluation scenarios based on climate conditions, etc.; (5) a set of problem-driven metrics is designed to develop benchmarks using various ML models to best align with the needs of downstream applications. Our dataset and code are publicly available on Kaggle and GitHub: https://www.kaggle.com/datasets/zhihaow/carbonglobe and https://github.com/zhwang0/carbon-globe.

Ecosystem services, such as carbon sequestration, biodiversity, and climate regulation, play essential roles in combating climate change. Projection of ecosystem dynamics under various scenarios is critical in understanding potential impacts and informing policies and mitigation strategies. Ecosystem Demography (ED) model is a major mechanistic model for ecosystem dynamics projection, but its computational cost has been a major bottleneck in performing large-scale (e.g., global, national) projections at very high spatial resolution. We aim to approximate the ED model using deep neural networks at operational high accuracy to assist large-scale climate studies. The deep approximation is non-trivial due to challenges by long-term error accumulation (e.g., 40 years), highly diverse scenarios, and high cost in training data generation. We propose a Deep-ED approximation model to address the challenges with a multi-scale cumulative loss reduction structure, significance-based scenario partitioning, self-guided forwarding, and physics-aware active learning strategies. Experiment results in the northeastern US demonstrate the high accuracy of Deep-ED and its potential in large-scale ecosystem projection.