Reinforcement learning (RL) for continuous control under delayed rewards is an under-explored problem despite its significance in real-world applications. Many complex skills are based on intermediate ones as prerequisites. For instance, a humanoid locomotor must learn how to stand before it can learn to walk. To cope with delayed reward, an agent must perform deep exploration. However, existing deep exploration methods are designed for small discrete action spaces, and their generalization to state-of-the-art continuous control remains unproven. We address the deep exploration problem for the first time from a PAC-Bayesian perspective in the context of actor-critic learning. To do this, we quantify the error of the Bellman operator through a PAC-Bayes bound, where a bootstrapped ensemble of critic networks represents the posterior distribution, and their targets serve as a data-informed function-space prior. We derive an objective function from this bound and use it to train the critic ensemble. Each critic trains an individual soft actor network, implemented as a shared trunk and critic-specific heads. The agent performs deep exploration by acting epsilon-softly on a randomly chosen actor head. Our proposed algorithm, named PAC-Bayesian Actor-Critic (PBAC), is the only algorithm to consistently discover delayed rewards on continuous control tasks with varying difficulty.

Bayesian optimisation (BO) using a Gaussian process (GP)-based surrogate model is a powerful tool for solving black-box optimisation problems but does not scale well to high-dimensional data. Previous works have proposed to use variational autoencoders (VAEs) to project high-dimensional data onto a low-dimensional latent space and to implement BO in the inferred latent space. In this work, we propose a conditional generative model for efficient high-dimensional BO that uses a GP surrogate model together with GP prior VAEs. A GP prior VAE extends the standard VAE by conditioning the generative and inference model on auxiliary covariates, capturing complex correlations across samples with a GP. Our model incorporates the observed target quantity values as auxiliary covariates learning a structured latent space that is better suited for the GP-based BO surrogate model. It handles partially observed auxiliary covariates using a unifying probabilistic framework and can also incorporate additional auxiliary covariates that may be available in real-world applications. We demonstrate that our method improves upon existing latent space BO methods on simulated datasets as well as on commonly used benchmarks.

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are the accepted standard for treatment effect estimation but they can be infeasible due to ethical reasons and prohibitive costs. Single-arm trials, where all patients belong to the treatment group, can be a viable alternative but require access to an external control group. We propose an identifiable deep latent-variable model for this scenario that can also account for missing covariate observations by modeling their structured missingness patterns. Our method uses amortized variational inference to learn both group-specific and identifiable shared latent representations, which can subsequently be used for {\em (i)} patient matching if treatment outcomes are not available for the treatment group, or for {\em (ii)} direct treatment effect estimation assuming outcomes are available for both groups. We evaluate the model on a public benchmark as well as on a data set consisting of a published RCT study and real-world electronic health records. Compared to previous methods, our results show improved performance both for direct treatment effect estimation as well as for effect estimation via patient matching.

Longitudinal data are important in numerous fields, such as healthcare, sociology and seismology, but real-world datasets present notable challenges for practitioners because they can be high-dimensional, contain structured missingness patterns, and measurement time points can be governed by an unknown stochastic process. While various solutions have been suggested, the majority of them have been designed to account for only one of these challenges. In this work, we propose a flexible and efficient latent-variable model that is capable of addressing all these limitations. Our approach utilizes Gaussian processes to capture correlations between samples and their associated missingness masks as well as to model the underlying point process. We construct our model as a variational autoencoder together with deep neural network parameterised decoder and encoder models, and develop a scalable amortised variational inference approach for efficient model training. We demonstrate competitive performance using both simulated and real datasets.

Current approaches to model-based offline reinforcement learning often incorporate uncertainty-based reward penalization to address the distributional shift problem. These approaches, commonly known as pessimistic value iteration, use Monte Carlo sampling to estimate the Bellman target to perform temporal difference-based policy evaluation. We find out that the randomness caused by this sampling step significantly delays convergence. We present a theoretical result demonstrating the strong dependency of suboptimality on the number of Monte Carlo samples taken per Bellman target calculation. Our main contribution is a deterministic approximation to the Bellman target that uses progressive moment matching, a method developed originally for deterministic variational inference. The resulting algorithm, which we call Moment Matching Offline Model-Based Policy Optimization (MOMBO), propagates the uncertainty of the next state through a nonlinear Q-network in a deterministic fashion by approximating the distributions of hidden layer activations by a normal distribution. We show that it is possible to provide tighter guarantees for the suboptimality of MOMBO than the existing Monte Carlo sampling approaches. We also observe MOMBO to converge faster than these approaches in a large set of benchmark tasks.

Conditional Neural Processes (CNPs) are a class of metalearning models popular for combining the runtime efficiency of amortized inference with reliable uncertainty quantification. Many relevant machine learning tasks, such as in spatio-temporal modeling, Bayesian Optimization and continuous control, inherently contain equivariances – for example to translation – which the model can exploit for maximal performance. However, prior attempts to include equivariances in CNPs do not scale effectively beyond two input dimensions. In this work, we propose Relational Conditional Neural Processes (RCNPs), an effective approach to incorporate equivariances into any neural process model. Our proposed method extends the applicability and impact of equivariant neural processes to higher dimensions. We empirically demonstrate the competitive performance of RCNPs on a large array of tasks naturally containing equivariances.

Neural Stochastic Differential Equations model a dynamical environment with neural nets assigned to their drift and diffusion terms. The high expressive power of their nonlinearity comes at the expense of instability in the identification of the large set of free parameters. This paper presents a recipe to improve the prediction accuracy of such models in three steps: i) accounting for epistemic uncertainty by assuming probabilistic weights, ii) incorporation of partial knowledge on the state dynamics, and iii) training the resultant hybrid model by an objective derived from a PAC-Bayesian generalization bound. We observe in our experiments that this recipe effectively translates partial and noisy prior knowledge into an improved model fit.

Model selection is treated as a standard performance boosting step in many machine learning applications. Once all other properties of a learning problem are fixed, the model is selected by grid search on a held-out validation set. This is strictly inapplicable to active learning. Within the standardized workflow, the acquisition function is chosen among available heuristics a priori, and its success is observed only after the labeling budget is already exhausted. More importantly, none of the earlier studies report a unique consistently successful acquisition heuristic to the extent to stand out as the unique best choice. We present a method to break this vicious circle by defining the acquisition function as a learning predictor and training it by reinforcement feedback collected from each labeling round. As active learning is a scarce data regime, we bootstrap from a well-known heuristic that filters the bulk of data points on which all heuristics would agree, and learn a policy to warp the top portion of this ranking in the most beneficial way for the character of a specific data distribution. Our system consists of a Bayesian neural net, the predictor, a bootstrap acquisition function, a probabilistic state definition, and another Bayesian policy network that can effectively incorporate this input distribution. We observe on three benchmark data sets that our method always manages to either invent a new superior acquisition function or to adapt itself to the a priori unknown best performing heuristic for each specific data set.

Gaussian Processes (GPs) are effective Bayesian predictors. We here show for the first time that instance labels of a GP classifier can be inferred in the multiple instance learning (MIL) setting using variational Bayes. We achieve this via a new construction of the bag likelihood that assumes a large value if the instance predictions obey the MIL constraints and a small value otherwise. This construction lets us derive the update rules for the variational parameters analytically, assuring both scalable learning and fast convergence. We observe this model to improve the state of the art in instance label prediction from bag-level supervision in the 20 Newsgroups benchmark, as well as in Barretts cancer tumor localization from histopathology tissue microarray images. Furthermore, we introduce a novel pipeline for weakly supervised object detection naturally complemented with our model, which improves the state of the art on the PASCAL VOC 2007 and 2012 data sets. Last but not least, the performance of our model can be further boosted up using mixed supervision: a combination of weak (bag) and strong (instance) labels.