We propose a family of Gaussian processes (GP) for dynamical systems with linear time-invariant responses, which are nonlinear only in initial conditions. This linearity allows us to tractably quantify forecasting and representational uncertainty, simultaneously alleviating the challenge of computing the distribution of trajectories from a GP-based dynamical system and enabling a new probabilistic treatment of learning Koopman operator representations. Using a trajectory-based equivariance – which we refer to as Koopman equivariance – we obtain a GP model with enhanced generalization capabilities. To allow for large-scale regression, we equip our framework with variational inference based on suitable inducing points. Experiments demonstrate on-par and often better forecasting performance compared to kernel-based methods for learning dynamical systems.

Ensuring safety and adapting to the user’s behavior are of paramount importance in physical human-robot interaction. Thus, incorporating elastic actuators in the robot’s mechanical design has become popular, since it offers intrinsic compliance and additionally provide a coarse estimate for the interaction force by measuring the deformation of the elastic components. While observer-based methods have been shown to improve these estimates, they rely on accurate models of the system, which are challenging to obtain in complex operating environments. In this work, we overcome this issue by learning the unknown dynamics components using Gaussian process (GP) regression. By employing the learned model in a Bayesian filtering framework, we improve the estimation accuracy and additionally obtain an observer that explicitly considers local model uncertainty in the confidence measure of the state estimate. Furthermore, we derive guaranteed estimation error bounds, thus, facilitating the use in safety-critical applications. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach experimentally in a human-exoskeleton interaction scenario.

Many machine learning approaches for decision making, such as reinforcement learning, rely on simulators or predictive models to forecast the time-evolution of quantities of interest, e.g., the state of an agent or the reward of a policy. Forecasts of such complex phenomena are commonly described by highly nonlinear dynamical systems, making their use in optimization-based decision-making challenging. Koopman operator theory offers a beneficial paradigm for addressing this problem by characterizing forecasts via linear time-invariant (LTI) ODEs, turning multi-step forecasts into sparse matrix multiplication. Though there exists a variety of learning approaches, they usually lack crucial learning-theoretic guarantees, making the behavior of the obtained models with increasing data and dimensionality unclear. We address the aforementioned by deriving a universal Koopman-invariant reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) that solely spans transformations into LTI dynamical systems. The resulting Koopman Kernel Regression (KKR) framework enables the use of statistical learning tools from function approximation for novel convergence results and generalization error bounds under weaker assumptions than existing work. Our experiments demonstrate superior forecasting performance compared to Koopman operator and sequential data predictors in RKHS.

Gaussian processes have become a promising tool for various safety-critical settings, since the posterior variance can be used to directly estimate the model error and quantify risk. However, state-of-the-art techniques for safety-critical settings hinge on the assumption that the kernel hyperparameters are known, which does not apply in general. To mitigate this, we introduce robust Gaussian process uniform error bounds in settings with unknown hyperparameters. Our approach computes a confidence region in the space of hyperparameters, which enables us to obtain a probabilistic upper bound for the model error of a Gaussian process with arbitrary hyperparameters. We do not require to know any bounds for the hyperparameters a priori, which is an assumption commonly found in related work. Instead, we are able to derive bounds from data in an intuitive fashion. We additionally employ the proposed technique to derive performance guarantees for a class of learning-based control problems. Experiments show that the bound performs significantly better than vanilla and fully Bayesian Gaussian processes.

The safe operation of physical systems typically relies on high-quality models. Since a continuous stream of data is generated during run-time, such models are often obtained through the application of Gaussian process regression because it provides guarantees on the prediction error. Due to its high computational complexity, Gaussian process regression must be used offline on batches of data, which prevents applications, where a fast adaptation through online learning is necessary to ensure safety. In order to overcome this issue, we propose the LoG-GP. It achieves a logarithmic update and prediction complexity in the number of training points through the aggregation of locally active Gaussian process models. Under weak assumptions on the aggregation scheme, it inherits safety guarantees from exact Gaussian process regression. These theoretical advantages are exemplarily exploited in the design of a safe and data-efficient, online-learning control policy. The efficiency and performance of the proposed real-time learning approach is demonstrated in a comparison to state-of-the-art methods.

Data-driven models are subject to model errors due to limited and noisy training data. Key to the application of such models in safety-critical domains is the quantification of their model error. Gaussian processes provide such a measure and uniform error bounds have been derived, which allow safe control based on these models. However, existing error bounds require restrictive assumptions. In this paper, we employ the Gaussian process distribution and continuity arguments to derive a novel uniform error bound under weaker assumptions. Furthermore, we demonstrate how this distribution can be used to derive probabilistic Lipschitz constants and analyze the asymptotic behavior of our bound. Finally, we derive safety conditions for the control of unknown dynamical systems based on Gaussian process models and evaluate them in simulations of a robotic manipulator.