Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) are a fundamental aspect of data-driven decision-making. RCTs often assume that the units are not influenced by each other. Traditional approaches addressing such effects assume a fixed network structure between the interfering units. However, real-world networks are rarely static, and treatment assignments can actively reshape the interference structure itself, as seen in financial access interventions that alter informal lending networks or healthcare programs that modify peer influence dynamics. This creates a novel and unexplored problem: estimating treatment effects when the interference network is determined by treatment allocation. In this work, we address this gap by proposing two single-experiment estimators for scenarios where network edges depend on nodal treatments constructed from instrumental variables derived from neighbourhood treatments. We prove their unbiasedness and experimentally validate the proposed estimators both on synthetic and real data.

A/B tests are often required to be conducted on subjects that might have social connections. For e.g., experiments on social media, or medical and social interventions to control the spread of an epidemic. In such settings, the SUTVA assumption for randomized-controlled trials is violated due to network interference, or spill-over effects, as treatments to group A can potentially also affect the control group B. When the underlying social network is known exactly, prior works have demonstrated how to conduct A/B tests adequately to estimate the global average treatment effect (GATE). However, in practice, it is often impossible to obtain knowledge about the exact underlying network. In this paper, we present UNITE: a novel estimator that relax this assumption and can identify GATE while only relying on knowledge of the superset of neighbors for any subject in the graph. Through theoretical analysis and extensive experiments, we show that the proposed approach performs better in comparison to standard estimators.

Indirect experiments provide a valuable framework for estimating treatment effects in situations where conducting randomized control trials (RCTs) is impractical or unethical. Unlike RCTs, indirect experiments estimate treatment effects by leveraging (conditional) instrumental variables, enabling estimation through encouragement and recommendation rather than strict treatment assignment. However, the sample efficiency of such estimators depends not only on the inherent variability in outcomes but also on the varying compliance levels of users with the instrumental variables and the choice of estimator being used, especially when dealing with numerous instrumental variables. While adaptive experiment design has a rich literature for \textit{direct} experiments, in this paper we take the initial steps towards enhancing sample efficiency for \textit{indirect} experiments by adaptively designing a data collection policy over instrumental variables. Our main contribution is a practical computational procedure that utilizes influence functions to search for an optimal data collection policy, minimizing the mean-squared error of the desired (non-linear) estimator. Through experiments conducted in various domains inspired by real-world applications, we showcase how our method can significantly improve the sample efficiency of indirect experiments.

Measuring human feedback via randomized experimentation is a cornerstone of data-driven decision-making. The methodology used to estimate user preferences from their online behaviours is critically dependent on user identifiers. However, in today's digital landscape, consumers frequently interact with content across multiple devices, which are often recorded with different identifiers for the same consumer. The inability to match different device identities across consumers poses significant challenges for accurately estimating human preferences and other causal effects. Moreover, without strong assumptions about the device-user graph, the causal effects might not be identifiable. In this paper, we propose HIFIVE, a variational method to solve the problem of estimating global average treatment effects (GATE) from a fragmented view of exposures and outcomes. Experiments show that our estimator is superior to standard estimators, with a lower bias and greater robustness to network uncertainty.

Brands use cookies and device identifiers to link different web visits to the same consumer. However, with increasing demands for privacy, these identifiers are about to be phased out, making identity fragmentation a permanent feature of the online world. Assessing treatment effects via randomized experiments (A/B testing) in such a scenario is challenging because identity fragmentation causes a) users to receive hybrid/mixed treatments, and b) hides the causal link between the historical treatments and the outcome. In this work, we address the problem of estimating treatment effects when a lack of identification leads to incomplete knowledge of historical treatments. This is a challenging problem which has not been addressed in literature yet. We develop a new method called DIET, which can adjust for users being exposed to mixed treatments without the entire history of treatments being available. Our method takes inspiration from the Cox model, and uses a proportional outcome approach under which we prove that one can obtain consistent estimates of treatment effects even under identity fragmentation. Our experiments, on one simulated and two real datasets, show that our method leads to up to 20% reduction in error and 25% reduction in bias over the naive estimate.

Most research in deep learning has predominantly focused on the development of new models and training procedures. In contrast, the exploration of training objectives has received considerably less attention, often limited to combinations of standard losses. When dealing with complex structured outputs, the effectiveness of conventional objectives as proxies for the true objective becomes can be questionable. In this study, we propose that existing inference network-based methods for structured prediction, as observed in previous works [Tu and Gimpel, 2018, Tu et al., 2020a], indirectly learn to optimize a dynamic loss objective parameterized by the energy model. Based on this insight, we propose a method that treats the energy network as a trainable loss function and employs an implicit-gradient-based technique to learn the corresponding dynamic objective. We experiment with multiple tasks such as multi-label classification, entity recognition etc., and find significant performance improvements over baseline approaches. Our results demonstrate that implicitly learning a dynamic loss landscape proves to be an effective approach for enhancing model performance in structured prediction tasks.

Consider two brands that want to jointly test alternate web experiences for their customers with an A/B test. Such collaborative tests are today enabled usingthird-party cookies, where each brand has information on the identity of visitors to another website, ensuring a consistent treatment experience. With the imminent elimination of third-party cookies, such A/B tests will become untenable. We propose a two-stage experimental design, where the two brands only need to agree on high-level aggregate parameters of the experiment to test the alternate experiences. Our design respects the privacy of customers. We propose an unbiased estimator of the Average Treatment Effect (ATE), and provide a way to use regression adjustment to improve this estimate. On real and simulated data, we show that the approach provides valid estimate of the ATE and is robust to the proportion of visitors overlapping across the brands. Our demonstration describes how a marketer can design such an experiment and analyze the results.

Information integration from different modalities is an active area of research.Human beings and, in general, biological neural systems are quite adept at using a multitude of signals from different sensory perceptive fields to interact with the environment and each other.Recent work in deep fusion models via neural networks has led to substantial improvements over unimodal approaches in areas like speech recognition, emotion recognition and analysis, captioning and image description.However, such research has mostly focused on architectural changes allowing for fusion of different modalities while keeping the model complexity manageable.Inspired by neuroscientific ideas about multisensory integration and processing, we investigate the effect of introducing neural dependencies in the loss functions.Experiments on multimodal sentiment analysis tasks with different models show that our approach provides a consistent performance boost.

Methods for sequential decision-making are often built upon a foundational assumption that the underlying decision process is stationary. This limits the application of such methods because real-world problems are often subject to changes due to external factors (\textit{passive} non-stationarity), changes induced by interactions with the system itself (\textit{active} non-stationarity), or both (\textit{hybrid} non-stationarity). In this work, we take the first steps towards the fundamental challenge of on-policy and off-policy evaluation amidst structured changes due to active, passive, or hybrid non-stationarity. Towards this goal, we make a \textit{higher-order stationarity} assumption such that non-stationarity results in changes over time, but the way changes happen is fixed. We propose, OPEN, an algorithm that uses a double application of counterfactual reasoning and a novel importance-weighted instrument-variable regression to obtain both a lower bias and a lower variance estimate of the structure in the changes of a policy's past performances. Finally, we show promising results on how OPEN can be used to predict future performances for several domains inspired by real-world applications that exhibit non-stationarity.

Most deep neural networks use simple, fixed activation functions, such as sigmoids or rectified linear units, regardless of domain or network structure. We introduce differential equation units (DEUs), an improvement to modern neural networks, which enables each neuron to learn a particular nonlinear activation function from a family of solutions to an ordinary differential equation. Specifically, each neuron may change its functional form during training based on the behavior of the other parts of the network. We show that using neurons with DEU activation functions results in a more compact network capable of achieving comparable, if not superior, performance when compared to much larger networks.

Most reinforcement learning methods are based upon the key assumption that the transition dynamics and reward functions are fixed, that is, the underlying Markov decision process is stationary. However, in many real-world applications, this assumption is violated, and using existing algorithms may result in a performance lag. To proactively search for a good future policy, we present a policy gradient algorithm that maximizes a forecast of future performance. This forecast is obtained by fitting a curve to the counter-factual estimates of policy performance over time, without explicitly modeling the underlying non-stationarity. The resulting algorithm amounts to a non-uniform reweighting of past data, and we observe that minimizing performance over some of the data from past episodes can be beneficial when searching for a policy that maximizes future performance. We show that our algorithm, called Prognosticator, is more robust to non-stationarity than two online adaptation techniques, on three simulated problems motivated by real-world applications.

Many ecological studies and conservation policies are based on field observations of species, which can be affected by systematic variability introduced by the observation process. A recently introduced causal modeling technique called 'half-sibling regression' can detect and correct for systematic errors in measurements of multiple independent random variables. However, it will remove intrinsic variability if the variables are dependent, and therefore does not apply to many situations, including modeling of species counts that are controlled by common causes. We present a technique called 'three-quarter sibling regression' to partially overcome this limitation. It can filter the effect of systematic noise when the latent variables have observed common causes. We provide theoretical justification of this approach, demonstrate its effectiveness on synthetic data, and show that it reduces systematic detection variability due to moon brightness in moth surveys.

Augmenting a neural network with memory that can grow without growing the number of trained parameters is a recent powerful concept with many exciting applications. In this paper, we establish their potential in online adapting a batch trained neural network to domain-relevant labeled data at deployment time. We present the design of Labeled Memory Network (LMN), a new memory augmented neural network (MANN) for fast online model adaptation. We highlight three key features of LMNs. First, LMNs treat memory as a second boosted stage following the trained network thereby allowing the memory and network to play complementary roles. Unlike all existing MANNs that write to memory at every cycle, LMNs provide better memory utilization by writing only labeled data with non-zero loss. Second, LMNs organize the memory with the discrete class label as the primary key unlike existing MANNs where key is a real vector derived from the input. This simple, yet surprisingly unexplored alternative organization, safeguards against catastrophic forgetting of rare labels that current LRU based MANNs are subject to. Finally, LMNs model the evolving expertise of memory and network using a RNN, to determine online their respective weights we evaluate online model adaptation strategies on five sequence prediction tasks, an image classification task, and two language modeling tasks. We show that LMNs are better than other MANNs designed for meta-learning. We also found them to be more accurate and faster than state-of-the-art methods of retuning model parameters for adapting to domain-specific labeled data.

In this paper we show that a simple beam approximation of the joint distribution between attention and output is an easy, accurate, and efficient attention mechanism for sequence to sequence learning.The method combines the advantage of sharp focus in hard attention and the implementation ease of soft attention.On five translation and two morphological inflection tasks we show effortless and consistent gains in BLEU compared to existing attention mechanisms.