In the domain of machine learning, the assumption that training and test data share the same distribution is often violated in real-world scenarios, requiring effective out-of-distribution (OOD) detection. This paper presents a novel OOD detection method that leverages the unique local neuroplasticity property of Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks (KANs). Unlike traditional multilayer perceptrons, KANs exhibit local plasticity, allowing them to preserve learned information while adapting to new tasks. Our method compares the activation patterns of a trained KAN against its untrained counterpart to detect OOD samples. We validate our approach on benchmarks from image and medical domains, demonstrating superior performance and robustness compared to state-of-the-art techniques. These results underscore the potential of KANs in enhancing the reliability of machine learning systems in diverse environments.

Accurate trajectory prediction is crucial for autonomous driving, yet uncertainty in agent behavior and perception noise makes it inherently challenging. While multi-modal trajectory prediction models generate multiple plausible future paths with associated probabilities, effectively quantifying uncertainty remains an open problem. In this work, we propose a novel multi-modal trajectory prediction approach based on evidential deep learning that estimates both positional and mode probability uncertainty in real time. Our approach leverages a Normal Inverse Gamma distribution for positional uncertainty and a Dirichlet distribution for mode uncertainty. Unlike sampling-based methods, it infers both types of uncertainty in a single forward pass, significantly improving efficiency. Additionally, we experimented with uncertainty-driven importance sampling to improve training efficiency by prioritizing underrepresented high-uncertainty samples over redundant ones. We perform extensive evaluations of our method on the Argoverse 1 and Argoverse 2 datasets, demonstrating that it provides reliable uncertainty estimates while maintaining high trajectory prediction accuracy.

The prediction of surrounding agents' motion is a key for safe autonomous driving. In this paper, we explore navigation maps as an alternative to the predominant High Definition (HD) maps for learning-based motion prediction. Navigation maps provide topological and geometrical information on road-level, HD maps additionally have centimeter-accurate lane-level information. As a result, HD maps are costly and time-consuming to obtain, while navigation maps with near-global coverage are freely available. We describe an approach to integrate navigation maps into learning-based motion prediction models. To exploit locally available HD maps during training, we additionally propose a model-agnostic method for knowledge distillation. In experiments on the publicly available Argoverse dataset with navigation maps obtained from OpenStreetMap, our approach shows a significant improvement over not using a map at all. Combined with our method for knowledge distillation, we achieve results that are close to the original HD map-reliant models. Our publicly available navigation map API for Argoverse enables researchers to develop and evaluate their own approaches using navigation maps4.

It is desirable to predict the behavior of traffic participants conditioned on different planned trajectories of the autonomous vehicle. This allows the downstream planner to estimate the impact of its decisions. Recent approaches for conditional behavior prediction rely on a regression decoder, meaning that coordinates or polynomial coefficients are regressed. In this work we revisit set-based trajectory prediction, where the probability of each trajectory in a predefined trajectory set is determined by a classification model, and first-time employ it to the task of conditional behavior prediction. We propose RESET, which combines a new metric-driven algorithm for trajectory set generation with a graph-based encoder. For unconditional prediction, RESET achieves comparable performance to a regression-based approach. Due to the nature of set-based approaches, it has the advantageous property of being able to predict a flexible number of trajectories without influencing runtime or complexity. For conditional prediction, RESET achieves reasonable results with late fusion of the planned trajectory, which was not observed for regression-based approaches before. This means that RESET is computationally lightweight to combine with a planner that proposes multiple future plans of the autonomous vehicle, as large parts of the forward pass can be reused.

The development of approaches for trajectory prediction requires metrics to validate and compare their performance. Currently established metrics are based on Euclidean distance, which means that errors are weighted equally in all directions. Euclidean metrics are insufficient for structured environments like roads, since they do not properly capture the agent’s intent relative to the underlying lane. In order to provide a reasonable assessment of trajectory prediction approaches with regard to the downstream planning task, we propose a new metric that is lane distance-based: Lane Miss Rate (LMR). For the calculation of LMR, the ground-truth and predicted endpoints are assigned to lane segments, more precisely their centerlines. Measured by the distance along the lane segments, predictions that are within a certain threshold distance to the ground-truth count as hits, otherwise they count as misses. LMR is then defined as the ratio of sequences that yield a miss. Our results on three state-of-the-art trajectory prediction models show that LMR preserves the order of Euclidean distance-based metrics. In contrast to the Euclidean Miss Rate, qualitative results show that LMR yields misses for sequences where predictions are located on wrong lanes. Hits on the other hand result for sequences where predictions are located on the correct lane. This means that LMR implicitly weights Euclidean error relative to the lane and goes into the direction of capturing intents of traffic agents. The source code of LMR for Argoverse 2 is publicly available1.

Predicting the motion of surrounding vehicles is essential for autonomous vehicles, as it governs their own motion plan. Current state-of-the-art vehicle prediction models heavily rely on map information. In reality, however, this information is not always available. We therefore propose CRAT-Pred, a multi-modal and non-rasterization-based trajectory prediction model, specifically designed to effectively model social interactions between vehicles, without relying on map information. CRAT-Pred applies a graph convolution method originating from the field of material science to vehicle prediction, allowing to efficiently leverage edge features, and combines it with multi-head self-attention. Compared to other map-free approaches, the model achieves state-of-the-art performance with a significantly lower number of model parameters. In addition to that, we quantitatively show that the self-attention mechanism is able to learn social interactions between vehicles, with the weights representing a measurable interaction score. The source code is publicly available33Source code: https://github.com/schmidt-ju/crat-pred.

Advances in learning-based trajectory prediction are enabled by large-scale datasets. However, in-depth analysis of such datasets is limited. Moreover, the evaluation of prediction models is limited to metrics averaged over all samples in the dataset. We propose an automated methodology that allows to extract maneuvers (e.g., left turn, lane change) from agent trajectories in such datasets. The methodology considers information about the agent dynamics and information about the lane segments the agent traveled along. Although it is possible to use the resulting maneuvers for training classification networks, we exemplary use them for extensive trajectory dataset analysis and maneuver-specific evaluation of multiple state-of-the-art trajectory prediction models. Additionally, an analysis of the datasets and an evaluation of the prediction models based on the agent dynamics is provided.

This work presents a model based traversability analysis method which employs a detailed vehicle model to perform real-time path planning in complex environments. The vehicle model represents the vehicle's wheels and chassis, allowing it to accurately predict the vehicles 3D pose, detailed contact information for each wheel and the occurrence of a chassis collision given a 2D pose on an elevation map. These predictions are weighted, depending on the safety requirements of the vehicle, to provide a scoring function for an A*-like search strategy. The proposed method is designed to run at frame rates of 30Hz on data from a RGB-D sensor to provide reactive planning of safe paths. For evaluation, two wheeled mobile robots in different simulated and real world environment setups were tested to show the reliability and performance of the proposed method.

Fast and accurate obstacle detection is a crucial component for autonomous robot navigation. It becomes even more important for a shared control vehicle like an electric wheeled walker, since the safety of the vehicle and the user depend on the correct classification of obstacles. This work describes a method for pose estimation of four-wheeled vehicles, which utilizes the fixed resolution of digital elevation maps to generate a detailed vehicle model. The vehicle's wheels are also approximated using digital elevation maps, allowing efficient calculation of wheel to ground contact points and therefore fast and accurate estimation of valid vehicle poses. To evaluate the proposed method, pose estimates are compared to three datasets including ground truth poses: one created using an external tracking system and two created by simulations of wheeled robots. It is also shown that the method is fast enough for real time operation.