Covariates provide valuable information on external factors that influence time series and are critical in many real-world time series forecasting tasks. For example, in retail, covariates may indicate promotions or peak dates such as holiday seasons that heavily influence demand forecasts. Recent advances in pretraining large language model architectures for time series forecasting have led to highly accurate forecasters. However, the majority of these models do not readily use covariates as they are often specific to a certain task or domain. This paper introduces a new method to incorporate covariates into pretrained time series forecasting models. Our proposed approach incorporates covariate information into pretrained forecasting models through modular blocks that inject past and future covariate information, without necessarily modifying the pretrained model in consideration. In order to evaluate our approach, we introduce a benchmark composed of 32 different synthetic datasets with varying dynamics to evaluate the effectivity of forecasting models with covariates. Extensive evaluations on both synthetic and real datasets show that our approach effectively incorporates covariate information into pretrained models, outperforming existing baselines.

There has been a growing demand for making modern cloud-based data analytics systems cost-effective and easy to use. AI-powered intelligent resource scaling is one such effort, aiming at automating scaling decisions for serverless offerings like Amazon Redshift Serverless. The foundation of intelligent resource scaling lies in the ability to forecast query workloads and their resource consumption accurately. Although the forecasting problem has been extensively studied across various domains, there is a lack of thorough analysis of existing forecasting algorithms for large-scale, real-world cloud query workloads. This paper fills this gap by providing an in-depth analysis of forecasting algorithms for real-world cloud workloads, covering the fundamental data characteristics that distinguish query workload forecasting from prior problems and evaluating the strengths and limitations of existing algorithms in this new domain. We anticipate that our findings will provide valuable insights in informing the design of an efficient and effective solution for production use, as well as in steering the forecasting community toward more effective algorithms of high real-world impact.

Autoregressive neural networks within the temporal point process (TPP) framework have become the standard for modeling continuous-time event data. Even though these models can expressively capture event sequences in a one-step-ahead fashion, they are inherently limited for long-term forecasting applications due to the accumulation of errors caused by their sequential nature. To overcome these limitations, we derive ADD-THIN, a principled probabilistic denoising diffusion model for TPPs that operates on entire event sequences. Unlike existing diffusion approaches, ADD-THIN naturally handles data with discrete and continuous components. In experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets, our model matches the state-of-the-art TPP models in density estimation and strongly outperforms them in forecasting.

Temporal point processes (TPP) are probabilistic generative models for continuous-time event sequences. Neural TPPs combine the fundamental ideas from point process literature with deep learning approaches, thus enabling construction of flexible and efficient models. The topic of neural TPPs has attracted significant attention in the recent years, leading to the development of numerous new architectures and applications for this class of models. In this review paper we aim to consolidate the existing body of knowledge on neural TPPs. Specifically, we focus on important design choices and general principles for defining neural TPP models. Next, we provide an overview of application areas commonly considered in the literature. We conclude this survey with the list of open challenges and important directions for future work in the field of neural TPPs.

Automatically detecting anomalies in event data can provide substantial value in domains such as healthcare, DevOps, and information security. In this paper, we frame the problem of detecting anomalous continuous-time event sequences as out-of-distribution (OOD) detection for temporal point processes (TPPs). First, we show how this problem can be approached using goodness-of-fit (GoF) tests. We then demonstrate the limitations of popular GoF statistics for TPPs and propose a new test that addresses these shortcomings. The proposed method can be combined with various TPP models, such as neural TPPs, and is easy to implement. In our experiments, we show that the proposed statistic excels at both traditional GoF testing, as well as at detecting anomalies in simulated and real-world data.

Temporal point process (TPP) models combined with recurrent neural networks provide a powerful framework for modeling continuous-time event data. While such models are flexible, they are inherently sequential and therefore cannot benefit from the parallelism of modern hardware. By exploiting the recent developments in the field of normalizing flows, we design TriTPP - a new class of non-recurrent TPP models, where both sampling and likelihood computation can be done in parallel. TriTPP matches the flexibility of RNN-based methods but permits several orders of magnitude faster sampling. This enables us to use the new model for variational inference in continuous-time discrete-state systems. We demonstrate the advantages of the proposed framework on synthetic and real-world datasets.

We propose NetGAN - the first implicit generative model for graphs able to mimic real-world networks. We pose the problem of graph generation as learning the distribution of biased random walks over the input graph. The proposed model is based on a stochastic neural network that generates discrete output samples and is trained using the Wasserstein GAN objective. NetGAN is able to produce graphs that exhibit well-known network patterns without explicitly specifying them in the model definition. At the same time, our model exhibits strong generalization properties, as highlighted by its competitive link prediction performance, despite not being trained specifically for this task. Being the first approach to combine both of these desirable properties, NetGAN opens exciting avenues for further research.