SUMMARY: Interpreting genetic variants of unknown significance (VUS) is essential in clinical applications of genome sequencing for diagnosis and personalized care. Non-coding variants remain particularly difficult to interpret, despite making up a large majority of trait associations identified in genome-wide association studies (GWAS) analyses. Predicting the regulatory effects of non-coding variants on candidate genes is a key step in evaluating their clinical significance. Here, we develop a machine-learning algorithm, Inference of Connected expression quantitative trait loci (eQTLs) (IRT), to predict the regulatory targets of non-coding variants identified in studies of eQTLs. We assemble datasets using eQTL results from the Genotype-Tissue Expression (GTEx) project and learn to separate positive and negative pairs based on annotations characterizing the variant, gene and the intermediate sequence. IRT achieves an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC-AUC) of 0.799 using random cross-validation, and 0.700 for a more stringent position-based cross-validation. Further evaluation on rare variants and experimentally validated regulatory variants shows a significant enrichment in IRT identifying the true target genes versus negative controls. In gene-ranking experiments, IRT achieves a top-1 accuracy of 50% and top-3 accuracy of 90%. Salient features, including GC-content, histone modifications and Hi-C interactions are further analyzed and visualized to illustrate their influences on predictions. IRT can be applied to any VUS of interest and each candidate nearby gene to output a score reflecting the likelihood of regulatory effect on the expression level. These scores can be used to prioritize variants and genes to assist in patient diagnosis and GWAS follow-up studies. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: Codes and data used in this work are available at https://github.com/miaecle/eQTL_Trees. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

MOTIVATION: Interpreting genetic variation in noncoding regions of the genome is an important challenge for personal genome analysis. One mechanism by which noncoding single nucleotide variants (SNVs) influence downstream phenotypes is through the regulation of gene expression. Methods to predict whether or not individual SNVs are likely to regulate gene expression would aid interpretation of variants of unknown significance identified in whole-genome sequencing studies. RESULTS: We developed FIRE (Functional Inference of Regulators of Expression), a tool to score both noncoding and coding SNVs based on their potential to regulate the expression levels of nearby genes. FIRE consists of 23 random forests trained to recognize SNVs in cis-expression quantitative trait loci (cis-eQTLs) using a set of 92 genomic annotations as predictive features. FIRE scores discriminate cis-eQTL SNVs from non-eQTL SNVs in the training set with a cross-validated area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.807, and discriminate cis-eQTL SNVs shared across six populations of different ancestry from non-eQTL SNVs with an AUC of 0.939. FIRE scores are also predictive of cis-eQTL SNVs across a variety of tissue types. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: FIRE scores for genome-wide SNVs in hg19/GRCh37 are available for download at https://sites.google.com/site/fireregulatoryvariation/. CONTACT: [email protected]. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.