We propose novel randomized geometric tools to detect low-volatility anomalies in stock markets; a principal problem in financial economics. Our modeling of the (detection) problem results in sampling and estimating the (relative) volume of geodesically non-convex and non-connected spherical patches that arise by intersecting a non-standard simplex with a sphere. To sample, we introduce two novel Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms that exploit the geometry of the problem and employ state-of-the-art continuous geometric random walks (such as Billiard walk and Hit-and-Run) adapted on spherical patches. To our knowledge, this is the first geometric formulation and MCMC-based analysis of the volatility puzzle in stock markets. We have implemented our algorithms in C++ (along with an R interface) and we illustrate the power of our approach by performing extensive experiments on real data. Our analyses provide accurate detection and new insights into the distribution of portfolios’ performance characteristics. Moreover, we use our tools to show that classical methods for low-volatility anomaly detection in finance form bad proxies that could lead to misleading or inaccurate results.

We examine volume computation of general-dimensional polytopes and more general convex bodies, defined by the intersection of a simplex by a family of parallel hyperplanes, and another family of parallel hyperplanes or a family of concentric ellipsoids. Such convex bodies appear in modeling and predicting financial crises. The impact of crises on the economy (labor, income, etc.) makes its detection of prime interest for the public in general and for policy makers in particular. Certain features of dependencies in the markets clearly identify times of turmoil. We describe the relationship between asset characteristics by means of a copula; each characteristic is either a linear or quadratic form of the portfolio components, hence the copula can be estimated by computing volumes of convex bodies. We design and implement practical algorithms in the exact and approximate setting, and experimentally juxtapose them in order to study the trade-off of exactness and accuracy for speed. We also experimentally find an efficient parameter-tuning to achieve a sufficiently good estimation of the probability density of each copula. Our C++ software, based on Eigen and available on github, is shown to be very effective in up to 100 dimensions. Our results offer novel, effective means of computing portfolio dependencies and an indicator of financial crises, which is shown to correctly identify past crises.

We introduce Reflective Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (ReHMC), an HMC-based algorithm to sample from a log-concave distribution restricted to a convex body. The random walk is based on incorporating reflections to the Hamiltonian dynamics such that the support of the target density is the convex body. We develop an efficient open source implementation of ReHMC and perform an experimental study on various high-dimensional datasets. The experiments suggest that ReHMC outperforms Hit-and-Run and Coordinate-Hit-and-Run regarding the time it needs to produce an independent sample, introducing practical truncated sampling in thousands of dimensions.

Given a parametric polynomial curve γ:[a,b] →Rn, how can we sample a random point x ∈ im(γ) in such a way that it is distributed uniformly with respect to the arc-length? Unfortunately, we cannot sample exactly such a point---even assuming we can perform exact arithmetic operations. So we end up with the following question: how does the method we choose affect the quality of the approximate sample we obtain? In practice, there are many answers. However, in theory, there are still gaps in our understanding. In this paper, we address this question from the point of view of complexity theory, providing bounds in terms of the size of the desired error.

status: Accepted

We examine volume computation of general-dimensional polytopes and more general convex bodies, defined as the intersection of a simplex by a family of parallel hyperplanes, and another family of parallel hyperplanes or a family of concentric ellipsoids. Such convex bodies appear in modeling and predicting financial crises. The impact of crises on the economy (labor, income, etc.) makes its detection of prime interest. Certain features of dependencies in the markets clearly identify times of turmoil. We describe the relationship between asset characteristics by means of a copula; each characteristic is either a linear or quadratic form of the portfolio components, hence the copula can be constructed by computing volumes of convex bodies. We design and implement practical algorithms in the exact and approximate setting, we experimentally juxtapose them and study the tradeoff of exactness and accuracy for speed. We analyze the following methods in order of increasing generality: rejection sampling relying on uniformly sampling the simplex, which is the fastest approach, but inaccurate for small volumes; exact formulae based on the computation of integrals of probability distribution functions; an optimized Lawrence sign decomposition method, since the polytopes at hand are shown to be simple; Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms using random walks based on the hit-and-run paradigm generalized to nonlinear convex bodies and relying on new methods for computing a ball enclosed; the latter is experimentally extended to non-convex bodies with very encouraging results. Our C++ software, based on CGAL and Eigen and available on github, is shown to be very effective in up to 100 dimensions. Our results offer novel, effective means of computing portfolio dependencies and an indicator of financial crises, which is shown to correctly identify past crises.