Prediction markets elicit and aggregate beliefs by paying agents based on how close their predictions are to a verifiable future outcome. However, outcomes of many important questions are difficult to verify or unverifiable, in that the ground truth may be hard or impossible to access. We present a novel incentive-compatible prediction market mechanism to elicit and efficiently aggregate information from a pool of agents without observing the outcome, by paying agents the negative cross-entropy between their prediction and that of a carefully chosen reference agent. Our key insight is that a reference agent with access to more information can serve as a reasonable proxy for the ground truth. We use this insight to propose self-resolving prediction markets that terminate with some probability after every report and pay all but a few agents based on the final prediction. The final agent is chosen as the reference agent since they observe the full history of market forecasts, and thus have more information by design. We show that it is a perfect Bayesian equilibrium (PBE) for all agents to report truthfully in our mechanism and to believe that all other agents report truthfully. Although primarily of interest for unverifiable outcomes, this design is also applicable for verifiable outcomes.

Modeling joint probability distributions over sequences has been studied from many perspectives. The physics community developed matrix product states, a tensor-train decomposition for probabilistic modeling, motivated by the need to tractably model many-body systems. But similar models have also been studied in the stochastic processes and weighted automata literature, with little work on how these bodies of work relate to each other. We address this gap by showing how stationary or uniform versions of popular quantum tensor network models have equivalent representations in the stochastic processes and weighted automata literature, in the limit of infinitely long sequences. We demonstrate several equivalence results between models used in these three communities: (i) uniform variants of matrix product states, Born machines and locally purified states from the quantum tensor networks literature, (ii) predictive state representations, hidden Markov models, norm-observable operator models and hidden quantum Markov models from the stochastic process literature, and (iii) stochastic weighted automata, probabilistic automata and quadratic automata from the formal languages literature. Such connections may open the door for results and methods developed in one area to be applied in another.

Extending classical probabilistic reasoning using the quantum mechanical view of probability has been of recent interest, particularly in the development of hidden quantum Markov models (HQMMs) to model stochastic processes. However, there has been little progress in characterizing the expressiveness of such models and learning them from data. We tackle these problems by showing that HQMMs are a special subclass of the general class of observable operator models (OOMs) that do not suffer from the negative probability problem by design. We also provide a feasible retraction-based learning algorithm for HQMMs using constrained gradient descent on the Stiefel manifold of model parameters. We demonstrate that this approach is faster and scales to larger models than previous learning algorithms.

Hidden Quantum Markov Models (HQMMs) can be thought of as quantum probabilistic graphical models that can model sequential data. We extend previous work on HQMMs with three contributions: (1) we show how classical hidden Markov models (HMMs) can be simulated on a quantum circuit, (2) we reformulate HQMMs by relaxing the constraints for modeling HMMs on quantum circuits, and (3) we present a learning algorithm to estimate the parameters of an HQMM from data. While our algorithm requires further optimization to handle larger datasets, we are able to evaluate our algorithm using several synthetic datasets generated by valid HQMMs. We show that our algorithm learns HQMMs with the same number of hidden states and predictive accuracy as the HQMMs that generated the data, while HMMs learned with the Baum-Welch algorithm require more states to match the predictive accuracy.

Quantum Graphical Models (QGMs) generalize classical graphical models by adopting the formalism for reasoning about uncertainty from quantum mechanics. Unlike classical graphical models, QGMs represent uncertainty with density matrices in complex Hilbert spaces. Hilbert space embeddings (HSEs) also generalize Bayesian inference in Hilbert spaces. We investigate the link between QGMs and HSEs and show that the sum rule and Bayes rule for QGMs are equivalent to the kernel sum rule in HSEs and a special case of Nadaraya-Watson kernel regression, respectively. We show that these operations can be kernelized, and use these insights to propose a Hilbert Space Embedding of Hidden Quantum Markov Models (HSE-HQMM) to model dynamics. We present experimental results showing that HSE-HQMMs are competitive with state-of-the-art models like LSTMs and PSRNNs on several datasets, while also providing a nonparametric method for maintaining a probability distribution over continuous-valued features.

As social robots increasingly enter people's lives, coherence of personality is an important challenge for longterm human-robot interactions. We extend an architecture that acquires dialog through crowdsourcing to author both verbal and non-verbal indicators of personality. We demonstrate the efficacy of the approach through a four-day study in which teams of participants interacted with a social robot expressing one of two personalities as the host of a competitive game. Results indicate that the system is able to elicit personality-driven language behaviors from the crowd in an incremental and ongoing way and produce a coherent expression of that personality during face-to-face interactions over time.