This paper examines the performance of ridge regression in reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces in the presence of noise that exhibits a finite number of higher moments. We establish excess risk bounds consisting of subgaussian and polynomial terms based on the well known integral operator framework. The dominant subgaussian component allows to achieve convergence rates that have previously only been derived under subexponential noise—a prevalent assumption in related work from the last two decades. These rates are optimal under standard eigenvalue decay conditions, demonstrating the asymptotic robustness of regularized least squares against heavy- tailed noise. Our derivations are based on a Fuk–Nagaev inequality for Hilbert-space valued random variables.

We study theoretical properties of a broad class of regularized algorithms with vector-valued output. These spectral algorithms include kernel ridge regression, kernel principal component regression and various implementations of gradient descent. Our contributions are twofold. First, we rigorously confirm the so-called saturation effect for ridge regression with vector-valued output by deriving a novel lower bound on learning rates; this bound is shown to be suboptimal when the smoothness of the regression function exceeds a certain level. Second, we present an upper bound on the finite sample risk for general vector-valued spectral algorithms, applicable to both well-specified and misspecified scenarios (where the true regression function lies outside of the hypothesis space), and show that this bound is minimax optimal in various regimes. All of our results explicitly allow the case of infinite-dimensional output variables, proving consistency of recent practical applications.

We present the first optimal rates for infinite-dimensional vector-valued ridge regression on a continuous scale of norms that interpolate between L2 and the hypothesis space, which we consider as a vector-valued reproducing kernel Hilbert space. These rates allow to treat the misspecified case in which the true regression function is not contained in the hypothesis space. We combine standard assumptions on the capacity of the hypothesis space with a novel tensor product construction of vector-valued interpolation spaces in order to characterize the smoothness of the regression function. Our upper bound not only attains the same rate as real-valued kernel ridge regression, but also removes the assumption that the target regression function is bounded. For the lower bound, we reduce the problem to the scalar setting using a projection argument. We show that these rates are optimal in most cases and independent of the dimension of the output space. We illustrate our results for the special case of vector-valued Sobolev spaces.

We address the consistency of a kernel ridge regression estimate of the conditional mean embedding (CME), which is an embedding of the conditional distribution of $Y$ given $X$ into a target reproducing kernel Hilbert space $\mathcal{H}_Y$. The CME allows us to take conditional expectations of target RKHS functions, and has been employed in nonparametric causal and Bayesian inference.We address the misspecified setting, where the target CME isin the space of Hilbert-Schmidt operators acting from an input interpolation space between $\mathcal{H}_X$ and $L_2$, to $\mathcal{H}_Y$. This space of operators is shown to be isomorphic to a newly defined vector-valued interpolation space. Using this isomorphism, we derive a novel and adaptive statistical learning rate for the empirical CME estimator under the misspecified setting. Our analysis reveals that our rates match the optimal $O(\log n / n)$ rates without assuming $\mathcal{H}_Y$ to be finite dimensional. We further establish a lower bound on the learning rate, which shows that the obtained upper bound is optimal.

We consider autocovariance operators of a stationary stochastic process on a Polish space that is embedded into a reproducing kernel Hilbert space. We investigate how empirical estimates of these operators converge along realizations of the process under various conditions. In particular, we examine ergodic and strongly mixing processes and obtain several asymptotic results as well as finite sample error bounds. We provide applications of our theory in terms of consistency results for kernel PCA with dependent data and the conditional mean embedding of transition probabilities. Finally, we use our approach to examine the nonparametric estimation of Markov transition operators and highlight how our theory can give a consistency analysis for a large family of spectral analysis methods including kernel-based dynamic mode decomposition.

We introduce a novel conditional density estimationmodel termed the conditional densityoperator (CDO). It naturally captures multivariate,multimodal output densities andshows performance that is competitive withrecent neural conditional density models andGaussian processes. The proposed model isbased on a novel approach to the reconstructionof probability densities from their kernelmean embeddings by drawing connections toestimation of Radon-Nikodym derivatives inthe reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS).We prove finite sample bounds for the estimationerror in a standard density reconstructionscenario, independent of problem dimensionality.Interestingly, when a kernel is used thatis also a probability density, the CDO allowsus to both evaluate and sample the outputdensity efficiently. We demonstrate the versatilityand performance of the proposed modelon both synthetic and real-world data.