Various algorithms in reinforcement learning exhibit dramatic variability in their convergence rates and ultimate accuracy as a function of the problem structure. Such instance-specific behavior is not captured by existing global minimax bounds, which are worst-case in nature. We analyze the problem of estimating optimalQ-state-action value functions for a discounted Markov decision process with discrete states and actions; our main result is to identify an instance-dependent functional that controls the difficulty of estimation in the ℓ∞-norm. Using a local minimax framework, we show that this functional arises in lower bounds on the accuracy on any estimation procedure. We establish the sharpness of these lower bounds, up to factors logarithmic in the state and action spaces, by analyzing a variance-reduced version ofQ-learning. Our theory provides a precise way of distinguishing “easy” problems from “hard” ones in the context ofQ-learning, as illustrated by an ensemble with a continuum of difficulty.

Many statistical estimators are defined as the fixed point of a data-dependent operator, with estimators based on minimizing a cost function being an important special case. The limiting performance of such estimators depends on the properties of the population-level operator in the idealized limit of infinitely many samples. We develop a general framework that yields bounds on statistical accuracy based on the interplay between the deterministic convergence rate of the algorithm at the population level, and its degree of (in)stability when applied to an empirical object based on $n$ samples. Using this framework, we analyze both stable forms of gradient descent and some higher-order and unstable algorithms, including Newton's method and its cubic-regularized variant, as well as the EM algorithm. We provide applications of our general results to several concrete classes of models, including Gaussian mixture estimation, non-linear regression models, and informative non-response models. We exhibit cases in which an unstable algorithm can achieve the same statistical accuracy as a stable algorithm in exponentially fewer steps---namely, with the number of iterations being reduced from polynomial to logarithmic in sample size $n$.

Estimation and inference in statistics pose significant challenges when data are collected adaptively. Even in linear models, the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) estimator may fail to exhibit asymptotic normality for single coordinate estimation and have inflated error. This issue is highlighted by a recent minimax lower bound, which shows that the error of estimating a single coordinate can be enlarged by a multiple of $\sqrt{d}$ when data are allowed to be arbitrarily adaptive, compared with the case when they are i.i.d. Our work explores this striking difference in estimation performance between utilizing i.i.d. and adaptive data. We investigate how the degree of adaptivity in data collection impacts the performance of estimating a low-dimensional parameter component in high-dimensional linear models. We identify conditions on the data collection mechanism under which the estimation error for a low-dimensional parameter component matches its counterpart in the i.i.d. setting, up to a factor that depends on the degree of adaptivity. We show that OLS or OLS on centered data can achieve this matching error. In addition, we propose a novel estimator for single coordinate inference via solving a Two-stage Adaptive Linear Estimating equation (TALE). Under a weaker form of adaptivity in data collection, we establish an asymptotic normality property of the proposed estimator.

Sequential data collection has emerged as a widely adopted technique for enhancing the efficiency of data gathering processes. Despite its advantages, such data collection mechanism often introduces complexities to the statistical inference procedure. For instance, the ordinary least squares (OLS) estimator in an adaptive linear regression model can exhibit non-normal asymptotic behavior, posing challenges for accurate inference and interpretation. In this paper, we propose a general method for constructing debiased estimator which remedies this issue. It makes use of the idea of adaptive linear estimating equations, and we establish theoretical guarantees of asymptotic normality, supplemented by discussions on achieving near-optimal asymptotic variance. A salient feature of our estimator is that in the context of multi-armed bandits, our estimator retains the non-asymptotic performance of the least squares estimator while obtaining asymptotic normality property. Consequently, this work helps connect two fruitful paradigms of adaptive inference: a) non-asymptotic inference using concentration inequalities and b) asymptotic inference via asymptotic normality.

Reinforcement learning algorithms are known to exhibit a variety of convergence rates depending on the problem structure. Recent years have witnessed considerable progress in developing theory that is instance-dependent, along with algorithms that achieve such instance-optimal guarantees. However, important questions remain in how to utilize such notions for inferential purposes, or for early stopping, so that data and computational resources can be saved for “easy” problems. This paper develops data-dependent procedures that output instance-dependent confidence regions for evaluating and optimizing policies in a Markov decision process. Notably, our procedures require only black-box access to an instance-optimal algorithm, and re-use the samples used in the estimation algorithm itself. The resulting data-dependent stopping rule adapts instance-specific difficulty of the problem and allows for early termination for problems with favorable structure. We highlight benefit of such early stopping rules via some numerical studies.

We study a class of weakly identifiable location-scale mixture models for which the maximum likelihood estimates based on $n$ i.i.d. samples are known to have lower accuracy than the classical $n^{- \frac{1}{2}}$ error. We investigate whether the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm also converges slowly for these models. We provide a rigorous characterization of EM for fitting a weakly identifiable Gaussian mixture in a univariate setting where we prove that the EM algorithm converges in order $n^{\frac{3}{4}}$ steps and returns estimates that are at a Euclidean distance of order ${ n^{- \frac{1}{8}}}$ and ${ n^{-\frac{1} {4}}}$ from the true location and scale parameter respectively. Establishing the slow rates in the univariate setting requires a novel localization argument with two stages, with each stage involving an epoch-based argument applied to a different surrogate EM operator at the population level. We demonstrate several multivariate ($d \geq 2$) examples that exhibit the same slow rates as the univariate case. We also prove slow statistical rates in higher dimensions in a special case, when the fitted covariance is constrained to be a multiple of identity.

We study derivative-free methods for policy optimization over the class of linear policies. We focus on characterizing the convergence rate of these methods when applied to linear-quadratic systems, and study various settings of driving noise and reward feedback. Our main theoretical result provides an explicit bound on the sample or evaluation complexity: we show that these methods are guaranteed to converge to within any pre-specified tolerance of the optimal policy with a number of zero-order evaluations that is an explicit polynomial of the error tolerance, dimension, and curvature properties of the problem. Our analysis reveals some interesting differences between the settings of additive driving noise and random initialization, as well as the settings of one-point and two-point reward feedback. Our theory is corroborated by simulations of derivative-free methods in application to these systems. Along the way, we derive convergence rates for stochastic zero-order optimization algorithms when applied to a certain class of non-convex problems.

We study derivative-free methods for policy optimization over the class of linear policies. We focus on characterizing the convergence rate of a canonical stochastic, two-point, derivative-free method for linear-quadratic systems in which the initial state of the system is drawn at random. In particular, we show that for problems with effective dimension $D$, such a method converges to an $\epsilon$-approximate solution within $\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(D/\epsilon)$ steps, with multiplicative pre-factors that are explicit lower-order polynomial terms in the curvature parameters of the problem. Along the way, we also derive stochastic zero-order rates for a class of non-convex optimization problems.

We consider the problem of finding critical points of functions that are non-convex and non-smooth. Studying a fairly broad class of such problems, we analyze the behavior of three gradient-based methods (gradient descent, proximal update, and Frank-Wolfe update). For each of these methods, we establish rates of convergence for general problems, and also prove faster rates for continuous sub-analytic functions. We also show that our algorithms can escape strict saddle points for a class of non-smooth functions, thereby generalizing known results for smooth functions. Our analysis leads to a simplification of the popular CCCP algorithm, used for optimizing functions that can be written as a difference of two convex functions. Our simplified algorithm retains all the convergence properties of CCCP, along with a significantly lower cost per iteration. We illustrate our methods and theory via applications to the problems of best subset selection, robust estimation, mixture density estimation, and shape-from-shading reconstruction.

Non-convex optimization problems arise frequently in machine learning, including feature selection, structured matrix learning, mixture modeling, and neural network training. We consider the problem of finding critical points of a broad class of non-convex problems with non-smooth components. We analyze the behavior of two gradient-based methods—namely a sub-gradient method, and a proximal method. Our main results are to establish rates of convergence for general problems, and also exhibit faster rates for sub-analytic functions. As an application of our theory, we obtain a simplification of the popular CCCP algorithm, which retains all the desirable convergence properties of the original method, along with a significantly lower cost per iteration. We illustrate our methods and theory via application to the problems of best subset selection, robust estimation, and shape from shading reconstruction.

Recent years have witnessed substantial progress in understanding the behavior of EM for mixture models that are correctly specified. Given that model misspecification is common in practice, it is important to understand EM in this more general setting. We provide non-asymptotic guarantees for population and sample-based EM for parameter estimation under a few specific univariate settings of misspecified Gaussian mixture models. Due to misspecification, the EM iterates no longer converge to the true model and instead converge to the projection of the true model over the set of models being searched over. We provide two classes of theoretical guarantees: first, we characterize the bias introduced due to the misspecification; and second, we prove that population EM converges at a geometric rate to the model projection under a suitable initialization condition. This geometric convergence rate for population EM imply a statistical complexity of order $1/\sqrt{n}$ when running EM with $n$ samples. We validate our theoretical findings in different cases via several numerical examples.