Estimates of heterogeneous treatment effects such as conditional average treatment effects (CATEs) and conditional quantile treatment effects (CQTEs) play an important role in real-world decision making. Given this importance, one should ensure these estimators are calibrated. While there is a rich literature on calibrating estimators of non-causal parameters, very few methods have been derived for calibrating estimators of causal parameters, or more generally estimators of quantities involving nuisance parameters. In this work, we develop general algorithms for reducing the task of causal calibration to that of calibrating a standard (non-causal) predictive model. Throughout, we study a notion of calibration defined with respect to an arbitrary, nuisance-dependent loss $\ell$, under which we say an estimator $\theta$ is calibrated if its predictions cannot be changed on any level set to decrease loss. For losses $\ell$ satisfying a condition called universal orthogonality, we present a simple algorithm that transforms partially-observed data into generalized pseudo-outcomes and applies any off-the-shelf calibration procedure. For losses $\ell$ satisfying a weaker assumption called conditional orthogonality, we provide a similar sample splitting algorithm the performs empirical risk minimization over an appropriately defined class of functions. Convergence of both algorithms follows from a generic, two term upper bound of the calibration error of any model that decouples the error in estimating unknown nuisance parameters from the calibration error in a hypothetical world where the learned nuisances are true. We demonstrate the practical applicability of our results in experiments on both observational and synthetic data. Our results are exceedingly general, showing that essentially any existing calibration algorithm can be used in causal settings, with additional loss only arising from errors in nuisance estimation.

Self-normalized processes arise naturally in many learning-related tasks. While self-normalized concentration has been extensively studied for scalar-valued processes, there are few results for multidimensional processes outside of the sub-Gaussian setting. In this work, we construct a general, self-normalized inequality for multivariate processes that satisfy a simple yet broad “sub-$\psi$” tail condition, which generalizes assumptions based on cumulant generating functions. From this general inequality, we derive an upper law of the iterated logarithm for sub-$\psi$ vector-valued processes, which is tight up to small constants. We show how our inequality can be leveraged to derive a variety of novel, self-normalized concentration inequalities under both light and heavy-tailed observations. Further, we provide applications in prototypical statistical tasks, such as parameter estimation in online linear regression, autoregressive modeling, and bounded mean estimation via a new (multivariate) empirical Bernstein concentration inequality.

Online experimentation with interference is a common challenge in modern applications such as e-commerce and adaptive clinical trials in medicine. For example, in online marketplaces, the revenue of a good depends on discounts applied to competing goods. Statistical inference with interference is widely studied in the offline setting, but far less is known about how to adaptively assign treatments to minimize regret. We address this gap by studying a multi-armed bandit (MAB) problem where a learner (e-commerce platform) sequentially assigns one of possible $\mathcal{A}$ actions (discounts) to $N$ units (goods) over $T$ rounds to minimize regret (maximize revenue). Unlike traditional MAB problems, the reward of each unit depends on the treatments assigned to other units, i.e., there is *interference* across the underlying network of units. With $\mathcal{A}$ actions and $N$ units, minimizing regret is combinatorially difficult since the action space grows as $\mathcal{A}^N$. To overcome this issue, we study a *sparse network interference* model, where the reward of a unit is only affected by the treatments assigned to $s$ neighboring units. We use tools from discrete Fourier analysis to develop a sparse linear representation of the unit-specific reward $r_n: [\mathcal{A}]^N \rightarrow \mathbb{R} $, and propose simple, linear regression-based algorithms to minimize regret. Importantly, our algorithms achieve provably low regret both when the learner observes the interference neighborhood for all units and when it is unknown. This significantly generalizes other works on this topic which impose strict conditions on the strength of interference on a *known* network, and also compare regret to a markedly weaker optimal action. Empirically, we corroborate our theoretical findings via numerical simulations.

Composition is a key feature of differential privacy. Well-known advanced composition theorems allow one to query a private database quadratically more times than basic privacy composition would permit. However, these results require that the privacy parameters of all algorithms be fixed before interacting with the data. To address this, Rogers et al. introduced fully adaptive composition, wherein both algorithms and their privacy parameters can be selected adaptively. They defined two probabilistic objects to measure privacy in adaptive composition: privacy filters, which provide differential privacy guarantees for composed interactions, and privacy odometers, time-uniform bounds on privacy loss. There are substantial gaps between advanced composition and existing filters and odometers. First, existing filters place stronger assumptions on the algorithms being composed. Second, these odometers and filters suffer from large constants, making them impractical. We construct filters that match the rates of advanced composition, including constants, despite allowing for adaptively chosen privacy parameters. En route we also derive a privacy filter for approximate zCDP. We also construct several general families of odometers. These odometers match the tightness of advanced composition at an arbitrary, preselected point in time, or at all points in time simultaneously, up to a doubly-logarithmic factor. We obtain our results by leveraging advances in martingale concentration. In sum, we show that fully adaptive privacy is obtainable at almost no loss.

Principal component regression (PCR) is a popular technique for fixed-design error-in-variables regression, a generalization of the linear regression setting in which the observed covariates are corrupted with random noise. We provide the first time-uniform finite sample guarantees for online (regularized) PCR whenever data is collected adaptively. Since the proof techniques for PCR in the fixed design setting do not readily extend to the online setting, our results rely on adapting tools from modern martingale concentration to the error-in-variables setting. As an application of our bounds, we provide a framework for counterfactual estimation of unit-specific treatment effects in panel data settings when interventions are assigned adaptively. Our framework may be thought of as a generalization of the synthetic interventions framework where data is collected via an adaptive intervention assignment policy.

In the kernelized bandit problem, a learner aims to sequentially compute the optimum of a function lying in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space given only noisy evaluations at sequentially chosen points. In particular, the learner aims to minimize regret, which is a measure of the suboptimality of the choices made. Arguably the most popular algorithm is the Gaussian Process Upper Confidence Bound (GP-UCB) algorithm, which involves acting based on a simple linear estimator of the unknown function. Despite its popularity, existing analyses of GP-UCB give a suboptimal regret rate, which fails to be sublinear for many commonly used kernels such as the Matern kernel. This has led to a longstanding open question: are existing regret analyses for GP-UCB tight, or can bounds be improved by using more sophisticated analytical techniques? In this work, we resolve this open question and show that GP-UCB enjoys nearly optimal regret. In particular, our results yield sublinear regret rates for the Matern kernel, improving over the state-of-the-art analyses and partially resolving a COLT open problem posed by Vakili et al. Our improvements rely on a key technical contribution --- regularizing kernel ridge estimators in proportion to the smoothness of the underlying kernel $k$. Applying this key idea together with a largely overlooked concentration result in separable Hilbert spaces (for which we provide an independent, simplified derivation), we are able to provide a tighter analysis of the GP-UCB algorithm.

There is a disconnect between how researchers and practitioners handle privacy-utility tradeoffs. Researchers primarily operate from a privacy first perspective, setting strict privacy requirements and minimizing risk subject to these constraints. Practitioners often desire an accuracy first perspective, possibly satisfied with the greatest privacy they can get subject to obtaining sufficiently small error. Ligett et al. have introduced a `"noise reduction" algorithm to address the latter perspective. The authors show that by adding correlated Laplace noise and progressively reducing it on demand, it is possible to produce a sequence of increasingly accurate estimates of a private parameter and only pay a privacy cost for the least noisy iterate released. In this work, we generalize noise reduction to the setting of Gaussian noise, introducing the Brownian mechanism. The Brownian mechanism works by first adding Gaussian noise of high variance corresponding to the final point of a simulated Brownian motion. Then, at the practitioner's discretion, noise is gradually decreased by tracing back along the Brownian path to an earlier time. Our mechanism is more naturally applicable to the common setting of bounded $\ell_2$-sensitivity, empirically outperforms existing work on common statistical tasks, and provides customizable control of privacy loss over the entire interaction with the practitioner. We complement our Brownian mechanism with ReducedAboveThreshold, a generalization of the classical AboveThreshold algorithm that provides adaptive privacy guarantees. Overall, our results demonstrate that one can meet utility constraints while still maintaining strong levels of privacy.

Parallelizable jobs typically consist of multiple phases of computation, where the job is more parallelizable in some phases and less parallelizable in others. For example, in a database, a query may consist of a highly parallelizable table scan, followed by a less parallelizable table join. In the past, this phase-varying parallelizability was summarized by a single sub-linear speedup curve that measures a job’s average parallelizability over its entire lifetime. Today, however, modern systems have fine-grained knowledge of the exact phase each job is in at every moment in time. Unfortunately, these systems do not fully leverage this real-time feedback when scheduling parallelizable jobs. Theory has failed to produce practical phase-aware scheduling policies, and thus scheduling in current systems is largely heuristic. A phase-aware scheduling policy must decide, given its knowledge of each job’s current phase, how many servers or cores to allocate to each job in the system at every moment in time. This paper provides the first stochastic model of a system processing parallelizable jobs composed of phases. Using our model, we derive an optimal phase-aware scheduling policy that minimizes the mean response time across jobs. Our provably optimal policy, Inelastic-First (IF), gives strict priority to jobs that are currently in less parallelizable phases. We validate our theoretical results using a simulation of a database running queries from the Star Schema Benchmark. We compare IF to a range of policies from both systems and theory, and show that IF reduces mean response time by up to a factor of 3.

Modern data centers are tasked with processing heterogeneous workloads consisting of various classes of jobs. These classes differ in their arrival rates, size distributions, and job parallelizability. With respect to parallelizability, some jobs are elastic, meaning they can parallelize linearly across any number of servers. Other jobs are inelastic, meaning they can only run on a single server. Although job classes can differ drastically, they are typically forced to share a single cluster. When sharing a cluster among heterogeneous jobs, one must decide how to allocate servers to each job at every moment in time. In this paper, we design and analyze allocation policies which aim to minimize the mean response time across jobs, where a job's response time is the time from when it arrives until it completes.

Neural networks are increasingly deployed in real-world safety-critical domains such as autonomous driving, aircraft collision avoidance, and malware detection. However, these networks have been shown to often mispredict on inputs with minor adversarial or even accidental perturbations. Consequences of such errors can be disastrous and even potentially fatal as shown by the recent Tesla autopilot crash. Thus, there is an urgent need for formal analysis systems that can rigorously check neural networks for violations of different safety properties such as robustness against adversarial perturbations within a certain L-norm of a given image. An effective safety analysis system for a neural network must be able to either ensure that a safety property is satisfied by the network or find a counterexample, i.e., an input for which the network will violate the property. Unfortunately, most existing techniques for performing such analysis struggle to scale beyond very small networks and the ones that can scale to larger networks suffer from high false positives and cannot produce concrete counterexamples in case of a property violation. In this paper, we present a new efficient approach for rigorously checking different safety properties of neural networks that significantly outperforms existing approaches by multiple orders of magnitude. Our approach can check different safety properties and find concrete counterexamples for networks that are 10x larger than the ones supported by existing analysis techniques. We believe that our approach to estimating tight output bounds of a network for a given input range can also help improve the explainability of neural networks and guide the training process of more robust neural networks.