MOTIVATION: Promoter-driven reporter genes, notably luciferase and green fluorescent protein, provide a tool for the generation of a vast array of time-course data sets from living cells and organisms. The aim of this study is to introduce a modeling framework based on stochastic differential equations (SDEs) and ordinary differential equations (ODEs) that addresses the problem of reconstructing transcription time-course profiles and associated degradation rates. The dynamical model is embedded into a Bayesian framework and inference is performed using Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms. RESULTS: We present three case studies where the methodology is used to reconstruct unobserved transcription profiles and to estimate associated degradation rates. We discuss advantages and limits of fitting either SDEs ODEs and address the problem of parameter identifiability when model variables are unobserved. We also suggest functional forms, such as on/off switches and stimulus response functions to model transcriptional dynamics and present results of fitting these to experimental data.

METHOD: The objective of the present article is to propose and evaluate a probabilistic approach based on Bayesian networks for modelling non-homogeneous and non-linear gene regulatory processes. The method is based on a mixture model, using latent variables to assign individual measurements to different classes. The practical inference follows the Bayesian paradigm and samples the network structure, the number of classes and the assignment of latent variables from the posterior distribution with Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), using the recently proposed allocation sampler as an alternative to RJMCMC. RESULTS: We have evaluated the method using three criteria: network reconstruction, statistical significance and biological plausibility. In terms of network reconstruction, we found improved results both for a synthetic network of known structure and for a small real regulatory network derived from the literature. We have assessed the statistical significance of the improvement on gene expression time series for two different systems (viral challenge of macrophages, and circadian rhythms in plants), where the proposed new scheme tends to outperform the classical BGe score. Regarding biological plausibility, we found that the inference results obtained with the proposed method were in excellent agreement with biological findings, predicting dichotomies that one would expect to find in the studied systems. AVAILABILITY: Two supplementary papers on theoretical (T) and experi-mental (E) aspects and the datasets used in our study are available from http://www.bioss.ac.uk/associates/marco/supplement/