BACKGROUND: Even though we have established a few risk factors for metastatic breast cancer (MBC) through epidemiologic studies, these risk factors have not proven to be effective in predicting an individual's risk of developing metastasis. Therefore, identifying critical risk factors for MBC continues to be a major research imperative, and one which can lead to advances in breast cancer clinical care. The objective of this research is to leverage Bayesian Networks (BN) and information theory to identify key risk factors for breast cancer metastasis from data. METHODS: We develop the Markov Blanket and Interactive risk factor Learner (MBIL) algorithm, which learns single and interactive risk factors having a direct influence on a patient's outcome. We evaluate the effectiveness of MBIL using simulated datasets, and compare MBIL with the BN learning algorithms Fast Greedy Search (FGS), PC algorithm (PC), and CPC algorithm (CPC). We apply MBIL to learn risk factors for 5 year breast cancer metastasis using a clinical dataset we curated. We evaluate the learned risk factors by consulting with breast cancer experts and literature. We further evaluate the effectiveness of MBIL at learning risk factors for breast cancer metastasis by comparing it to the BN learning algorithms Necessary Path Condition (NPC) and Greedy Equivalent Search (GES). RESULTS: The averages of the Jaccard index for the simulated datasets containing 2000 records were 0.705, 0.272, 0.228, and 0.147 for MBIL, FGS, PC, and CPC respectively. MBIL, NPC, and GES all learned that grade and lymph_nodes_positive are direct risk factors for 5 year metastasis. Only MBIL and NPC found that surgical_margins is a direct risk factor. Only NPC found that invasive is a direct risk factor. MBIL learned that HER2 and ER interact to directly affect 5 year metastasis. Neither GES nor NPC learned that HER2 and ER are direct risk factors. DISCUSSION: The results involving simulated datasets indicated that MBIL can learn direct risk factors substantially better than standard Bayesian network learning algorithms. An application of MBIL to a real breast cancer dataset identified both single and interactive risk factors that directly influence breast cancer metastasis, which can be investigated further.

MOTIVATION: Establishment of a statistical association between microbiome features and clinical outcomes is of growing interest because of the potential for yielding insights into biological mechanisms and pathogenesis. Extracting microbiome features that are relevant for a disease is challenging and existing variable selection methods are limited due to large number of risk factor variables from microbiome sequence data and their complex biological structure. RESULTS: We propose a tree-based scanning method, Selection of Models for the Analysis of Risk factor Trees (referred to as SMART-scan), for identifying taxonomic groups that are associated with a disease or trait. SMART-scan is a model selection technique that uses a predefined taxonomy to organize the large pool of possible predictors into optimized groups, and hierarchically searches and determines variable groups for association test. We investigate the statistical properties of SMART-scan through simulations, in comparison to a regular single-variable analysis and three commonly-used variable selection methods, stepwise regression, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and classification and regression tree (CART). When there are taxonomic group effects in the data, SMART-scan can significantly increase power by using bacterial taxonomic information to split large numbers of variables into groups. Through an application to microbiome data from a vervet monkey diet experiment, we demonstrate that SMART-scan can identify important phenotype-associated taxonomic features missed by single-variable analysis, stepwise regression, LASSO and CART.

MOTIVATION: Signal transduction cascades governing cell functional responses to stimulatory cues play crucial roles in cell regulatory systems and represent promising therapeutic targets for complex human diseases. however, mathematical analysis of how cell responses are governed by signaling activities is challenging due to their multivariate and non-linear nature. diverse computational methods are potentially available, but most are ineffective for protein-level data that is limited in extent and replication. RESULTS: We apply a decision tree approach to analyze the relationship of cell functional response to signaling activity across a spectrum of stimulatory cues. as a specific example, we studied five intracellular signals influencing fibroblast migration under eight conditions: four substratum fibronectin levels and presence versus absence of epidermal growth factor. we propose techniques for preprocessing and extending the experimental measurement set via interpolative modeling in order to gain statistical reliability. for this specific case study, our approach has 70% overall classification accuracy and the decision tree model reveals insights concerning the combined roles of the various signaling activities in governing cell migration speed. we conclude that decision tree methodology may facilitate elucidation of signal-response cascade relationships and generate experimentally testable predictions, which can be used as directions for future experiments.