Query optimizers rely on accurate cardinality estimates to produce good execution plans. Despite decades of research, existing cardinality estimators are inaccurate for complex queries, due to making lossy modeling assumptions and not capturing inter-table correlations. In this work, we show that it is possible to learn the correlations across all tables in a database without any independence assumptions. We present NeuroCard, a join cardinality estimator that builds a single neural density estimator over an entire database. Leveraging join sampling and modern deep autoregressive models, NeuroCard makes no inter-table or inter-column independence assumptions in its probabilistic modeling. NeuroCard achieves orders of magnitude higher accuracy than the best prior methods (a new state-of-the-art result of 8.5x maximum error on JOB-light), scales to dozens of tables, while being compact in space (several MBs) and efficient to construct or update (seconds to minutes).

Cardinality estimation has long been grounded in statistical tools for density estimation. To capture the rich multivariate distributions of relational tables, we propose the use of a new type of high-capacity statistical model: deep autoregressive models. However, direct application of these models leads to a limited estimator that is prohibitively expensive to evaluate for range or wildcard predicates. To produce a truly usable estimator, we develop a Monte Carlo integration scheme on top of autoregressive models that can efficiently handle range queries with dozens of dimensions or more. Like classical synopses, our estimator summarizes the data without supervision. Unlike previous solutions, we approximate the joint data distribution without any independence assumptions. Evaluated on real-world datasets and compared against real systems and dominant families of techniques, our estimator achieves single-digit multiplicative error at tail, an up to 90x accuracy improvement over the second best method, and is space- and runtime-efficient.