Modern climate projections lack adequate spatial and temporal resolution due to computational constraints, leading to inaccuracies in representing critical processes like thunderstorms that occur on the sub-resolution scale. Hybrid methods combining physics with machine learning (ML) offer faster, higher fidelity climate simulations by outsourcing compute-hungry, high-resolution simulations to ML emulators. However, these hybrid physics-ML simulations require domain-specific data and workflows that have been inaccessible to many ML experts. This paper is an extended version of our NeurIPS award-winning ClimSim dataset paper. The ClimSim dataset includes 5.7 billion pairs of multivariate input/output vectors spanning ten years at high temporal resolution, capturing the influence of high-resolution, high-fidelity physics on a host climate simulator's macro-scale state. In this extended version, we introduce a significant new contribution in Section 5, which provides a cross-platform, containerized pipeline to integrate ML models into operational climate simulators for hybrid testing. We also implement various baselines of ML models and hybrid simulators to highlight the ML challenges of building stable, skillful emulators. The data (https://huggingface.co/datasets/LEAP/ClimSim_high-res, also in a low-resolution version at https://huggingface.co/datasets/LEAP/ClimSim_low-res and an aquaplanet version at https://huggingface.co/datasets/LEAP/ClimSim_low-res_aqua-planet) and code (https://leap-stc.github.io/ClimSim and https://github.com/leap-stc/climsim-online) are publicly released to support the development of hybrid physics-ML and high-fidelity climate simulations.

Deep generative vision models are now able to synthesize realistic-looking satellite imagery. However, the possibility of hallucinations prevents their adoption of risk-sensitive applications, such as generating materials for communicating climate change. To demonstrate this issue, we train a generative adversarial network (GAN, pix2pixHD) to create synthetic satellite imagery of future flooding and reforestation events. We find that a pure deep learning-based model can generate photorealistic flood visualizations but hallucinate floods at locations that are not susceptible to flooding. To address this issue, we propose to condition and evaluate generative vision models on segmentation maps of physics-based flood models. We show that our physics-conditioned model outperforms the pure deep learning-based model and a handcrafted baseline. We evaluate the generalization capability of our method to different remote sensing data and different climate-related events (reforestation). We publish our code and dataset which includes the data for a third case study of melting Arctic sea ice and >30 000 labeled HD image triplets—or the equivalent of 5.5 million images at$128 \times 128$pixels—for segmentation guided image-to-image (im2im) translation in Earth observation. Code and data are available at github.com/blutjens/eie-earth-public.

Recent progress in self-supervision has shown that pre-training large neural networks on vast amounts of unsupervised data can lead to substantial increases in generalization to downstream tasks. Such models, recently coined foundation models, have been transformational to the field of natural language processing.Variants have also been proposed for image data, but their applicability to remote sensing tasks is limited.To stimulate the development of foundation models for Earth monitoring, we propose a benchmark comprised of six classification and six segmentation tasks, which were carefully curated and adapted to be both relevant to the field and well-suited for model evaluation. We accompany this benchmark with a robust methodology for evaluating models and reporting aggregated results to enable a reliable assessment of progress. Finally, we report results for 20 baselines to gain information about the performance of existing models.We believe that this benchmark will be a driver of progress across a variety of Earth monitoring tasks.

Modern climate projections lack adequate spatial and temporal resolution due to computational constraints. A consequence is inaccurate and imprecise predictions of critical processes such as storms. Hybrid methods that combine physics with machine learning (ML) have introduced a new generation of higher fidelity climate simulators that can sidestep Moore's Law by outsourcing compute-hungry, short, high-resolution simulations to ML emulators. However, this hybrid ML-physics simulation approach requires domain-specific treatment and has been inaccessible to ML experts because of lack of training data and relevant, easy-to-use workflows. We present ClimSim, the largest-ever dataset designed for hybrid ML-physics research. It comprises multi-scale climate simulations, developed by a consortium of climate scientists and ML researchers. It consists of 5.7 billion pairs of multivariate input and output vectors that isolate the influence of locally-nested, high-resolution, high-fidelity physics on a host climate simulator's macro-scale physical state.The dataset is global in coverage, spans multiple years at high sampling frequency, and is designed such that resulting emulators are compatible with downstream coupling into operational climate simulators. We implement a range of deterministic and stochastic regression baselines to highlight the ML challenges and their scoring. The data (https://huggingface.co/datasets/LEAP/ClimSim_high-res) and code (https://leap-stc.github.io/ClimSim) are released openly to support the development of hybrid ML-physics and high-fidelity climate simulations for the benefit of science and society.

Forest biomass is a key influence for future climate, and the world urgently needs highly scalable financing schemes, such as carbon offsetting certifications, to protect and restore forests. Current manual forest carbon stock inventory methods of measuring single trees by hand are time, labour, and cost intensive and have been shown to be subjective. They can lead to substantial overestimation of the carbon stock and ultimately distrust in forest financing. The potential for impact and scale of leveraging advancements in machine learning and remote sensing technologies is promising, but needs to be of high quality in order to replace the current forest stock protocols for certifications. In this paper, we present ReforesTree, a benchmark dataset of forest carbon stock in six agro-forestry carbon offsetting sites in Ecuador. Furthermore, we show that a deep learning-based end-to-end model using individual tree detection from low cost RGB-only drone imagery is accurately estimating forest carbon stock within official carbon offsetting certification standards. Additionally, our baseline CNN model outperforms state-of-the-art satellite-based forest biomass and carbon stock estimates for this type of small-scale, tropical agro-forestry sites. We present this dataset to encourage machine learning research in this area to increase accountability and transparency of monitoring, verification and reporting (MVR) in carbon offsetting projects, as well as scaling global reforestation financing through accurate remote sensing.

Deep neural network-based systems are now state-of-the-art in many robotics tasks, but their application in safety-critical domains remains dangerous without formal guarantees on network robustness. Small perturbations to sensor inputs (from noise or adversarial examples) are often enough to change network-based decisions, which was recently shown to cause an autonomous vehicle to swerve into another lane. In light of these dangers, numerous algorithms have been developed as defensive mechanisms from these adversarial inputs, some of which provide formal robustness guarantees or certificates. This work leverages research on certified adversarial robustness to develop an online certifiably robust for deep reinforcement learning algorithms. The proposed defense computes guaranteed lower bounds on state-action values during execution to identify and choose a robust action under a worst case deviation in input space due to possible adversaries or noise. Moreover, the resulting policy comes with a certificate of solution quality, even though the true state and optimal action are unknown to the certifier due to the perturbations. The approach is demonstrated on a deep Q-network (DQN) policy and is shown to increase robustness to noise and adversaries in pedestrian collision avoidance scenarios, a classic control task, and Atari Pong. This article extends our prior work with new performance guarantees, extensions to other reinforcement learning algorithms, expanded results aggregated across more scenarios, an extension into scenarios with adversarial behavior, comparisons with a more computationally expensive method, and visualizations that provide intuition about the robustness algorithm.

Many current autonomous systems are being designed with a strong reliance on black box predictions from deep neural networks (DNNs). However, DNNs tend to be overconfident in predictions on unseen data and can give unpredictable results for far-from-distribution test data. The importance of predictions that are robust to this distributional shift is evident for safety-critical applications, such as collision avoidance around pedestrians. Measures of model uncertainty can be used to identify unseen data, but the state-of-the-art extraction methods such as Bayesian neural networks are mostly intractable to compute. This paper uses MC-Dropout and Bootstrapping to give computationally tractable and parallelizable uncertainty estimates. The methods are embedded in a Safe Reinforcement Learning framework to form uncertainty-aware navigation around pedestrians. The result is a collision avoidance policy that knows what it does not know and cautiously avoids pedestrians that exhibit unseen behavior. The policy is demonstrated in simulation to be more robust to novel observations and take safer actions than an uncertainty-unaware baseline.