We use data mining and machine learning techniques to predict upcoming periods of high utilization or poor performance in enterprise systems. The abundant data available and complexity of these systems defies human characterization or static models and makes the task suitable for data mining techniques. We formulate the problem as one of classification: given current and past information about the system's behavior, can we forecast whether the system will meet its performance targets over the next hour? Using real data gathered from several enterprise systems in Hewlett-Packard, we compare several approaches ranging from time series to Bayesian networks. Besides establishing the predictive power of these approaches our study analyzes three dimensions that are important for their application as a stand alone tool. First, it quantifies the gain in accuracy of multivariate prediction methods over simple statistical univariate methods. Second, it quantifies the variations in accuracy when using different classes of system and workload features. Third, it establishes that models induced using combined data from various systems generalize well and are applicable to new systems, enabling accurate predictions on systems with insufficient historical data. Together this analysis offers a promising outlook on the development of tools to automate assignment of resources to stabilize performance, (e.g., adding servers to a cluster) and allow opportunistic job scheduling (e.g., backups or virus scans).

We propose a new set of criteria for learning algorithms in multi-agent systems, one that is more stringent and (we argue) better justified than previous proposed criteria. Our criteria, which apply most straightfor- wardly in repeated games with average rewards, consist of three require- ments: (a) against a specified class of opponents (this class is a parameter of the criterion) the algorithm yield a payoff that approaches the payoff of the best response, (b) against other opponents the algorithm's payoff at least approach (and possibly exceed) the security level payoff (or max- imin value), and (c) subject to these requirements, the algorithm achieve a close to optimal payoff in self-play. We furthermore require that these average payoffs be achieved quickly. We then present a novel algorithm, and show that it meets these new criteria for a particular parameter class, the class of stationary opponents. Finally, we show that the algorithm is effective not only in theory, but also empirically. Using a recently introduced comprehensive game theoretic test suite, we show that the algorithm almost universally outperforms previous learning algorithms.