A number of different architectures and loss functions have been applied to the problem of self-supervised learning (SSL), with the goal of developing embeddings that provide the best possible pre-training for as-yet-unknown, lightly supervised downstream tasks. One of these SSL criteria is to maximize the entropy of a set of embeddings in some compact space. But the goal of maximizing the embedding entropy often depends—whether explicitly or implicitly—upon high dimensional entropy estimates, which typically perform poorly in more than a few dimensions. In this paper, we motivate an effective entropy maximization criterion (E2MC), defined in terms of easy-to-estimate, low-dimensional constraints. We demonstrate that using it to continue training an already-trained SSL model for only a handful of epochs leads to a consistent and, in some cases, significant improvement in downstream performance. We perform careful ablation studies to show that the improved performance is due to the proposed add-on criterion. We also show that continued pre-training with alternative criteria does not lead to notable improvements, and in some cases, even degrades performance.

Fine-tuning off-the-shelf pre-trained neural networks has become the default starting point for a wide range of challenging prediction tasks—especially in computer vision and natural language processing, where pre-trained models trained on millions or even billions of data points are publicly available and can be fine-tuned with a moderate compute budget. However, while fine-tuned models have been shown to significantly improve predictive performance compared to models trained from scratch, they can exhibit poor calibration and fail to reliably identify challenging distribution shifts. In this paper, we improve uncertainty quantification in fine-tuned models by constructing a data-driven uncertainty-aware fine-tuning prior that assigns high probability density to parameters that induce predictive functions with high uncertainty on input points that are meaningfully different from the data. We derive a tractable variational objective to perform approximate inference in models with data-driven uncertainty-aware priors and evaluate models fine-tuned with such priors on different transfer learning tasks. We show that fine-tuning with uncertainty-aware priors significantly improves calibration, selective prediction, and semantic shift detection on computer vision and natural language classification tasks.

Rapid growth of high-dimensional datasets in fields such as single-cell RNA sequencing and spatial genomics has led to unprecedented opportunities for scientific discovery, but it also presents unique computational and statistical challenges. Traditional methods struggle with geometry-aware data generation, interpolation along meaningful trajectories, and transporting populations via feasible paths. To address these issues, we introduce Geometry-Aware Generative Autoencoder (GAGA), a novel framework that combines extensible manifold learning with generative modeling. GAGA constructs a neural network embedding space that respects the intrinsic geometries discovered by manifold learning and learns a novel warped Riemannian metric on the data space. This warped metric is derived from both the points on the data manifold and negative samples off the manifold, allowing it to characterize a meaningful geometry across the entire latent space. Using this metric, GAGA can uniformly sample points on the manifold, generate points along geodesics, and interpolate between populations across the learned manifold. GAGA shows competitive performance in simulated and real-world datasets, including a 30% improvement over SOTA in single-cell population-level trajectory inference.

A critical component in the trustworthiness of LLMs is reliable uncertainty communication, yet LLMs often use assertive language when conveying false claims, leading to over-reliance and eroded trust.We present the first systematic study of faithful confidence calibration of LLMs, benchmarking models' ability to use linguistic expressions of uncertainty that faithfully reflect their intrinsic uncertainty, across a comprehensive array of models, datasets, and prompting strategies.Our results demonstrate that LLMs largely fail at this task, and that existing interventions are insufficient: standard prompt approaches provide only marginal gains, and existing, factuality-based calibration techniques can even harm faithful calibration.To address this critical gap, we introduce MetaFaith, a novel prompt-based calibration approach inspired by human metacognition.We show that MetaFaith robustly improves faithful calibration across diverse models and task domains, enabling up to 61% improvement in faithfulness and achieving an 83% win rate over original generations as judged by humans.

Transformers have emerged as the dominant architecture in the field of deep learning, with a broad range of applications and remarkable in-context learning (ICL) capabilities. While not yet fully understood, ICL has already proved to be an intriguing phenomenon, allowing transformers to learn in context—without requiring further training. In this paper, we further advance the understanding of ICL by demonstrating that transformers can perform full Bayesian inference for commonly used statistical models in context. More specifically, we introduce a general framework that builds on ideas from prior fitted networks and continuous normalizing flows and enables us to infer complex posterior distributions for models such as generalized linear models and latent factor models. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate that our ICL approach yields posterior samples that are similar in quality to state-of-the-art MCMC or variational inference methods that do not operate in context. The source code for this paper is available at https://github.com/ArikReuter/ICL_for_Full_Bayesian_Inference

Carter Teplica, Yixin Liu, Arman Cohan, Tim G. J. Rudner. Proceedings of the 2025 Conference of the Nations of the Americas Chapter of the Association for Computational Linguistics: Human Language Technologies (Volume 1: Long Papers). 2025.

A long-standing goal in AI is to develop agents capable of solving diverse tasks across a range of environments, including those never seen during training. Two dominant paradigms address this challenge: (i) reinforcement learning (RL), which learns policies via trial and error, and (ii) optimal control, which plans actions using a known or learned dynamics model. However, their comparative strengths in the offline setting—where agents must learn from reward-free trajectories—remain underexplored. In this work, we systematically evaluate RL and control-based methods on a suite of navigation tasks, using offline datasets of varying quality. On the RL side, we consider goal-conditioned and zero-shot methods. On the control side, we train a latent dynamics model using the Joint Embedding Predictive Architecture (JEPA) and employ it for planning. We investigate how factors such as data diversity, trajectory quality, and environment variability influence the performance of these approaches. Our results show that model-free RL benefits most from large amounts of high-quality data, whereas model-based planning generalizes better to unseen layouts and is more data-efficient, while achieving trajectory stitching performance comparable to leading model-free methods. Notably, planning with a latent dynamics model proves to be a strong approach for handling suboptimal offline data and adapting to diverse environments.

AI-based military decision support systems that help commanders observe, orient, decide, and act on the battlefield are highly sought after by military leadership. With the advent of large language models, AI developers have begun advertising automated AI-based decision support systems designed to both analyze and act on data from the battlefield. While the desire to use decision support systems to make better decisions on the battlefield is unsurprising, the responsible deployment of such systems requires a clear understanding of the capabilities and limitations of modern machine learning models. This paper reviews recently proposed uses of AI-enables decision support systems (DSS), provides a simplified framework for considering AI-DSS capabilities and limitations, and recommends practical risk mitigations commanders might employ when operating with an AI-enabled DSS.

Machine learning models often perform poorly under subpopulation shifts in the data distribution. Developing methods that allow machine learning models to better generalize to such shifts is crucial for safe deployment in real-world settings. In this paper, we develop a family of group-aware prior (GAP) distributions over neural network parameters that explicitly favor models that generalize well under subpopulation shifts. We design a simple group-aware prior that only requires access to a small set of data with group information and demonstrate that training with this prior yields state-of-the-art performance—even when only retraining the final layer of a previously trained non-robust model. Group aware-priors are conceptually simple, complementary to existing approaches, such as attribute pseudo labeling and data reweighting, and open up promising new avenues for harnessing Bayesian inference to enable robustness to subpopulation shifts.

Bayesian optimization is a highly efficient approach to optimizing objective functions which are expensive to query. These objectives are typically represented by Gaussian process (GP) surrogate models which are easy to optimize and support exact inference. While standard GP surrogates have been well-established in Bayesian optimization, Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) have recently become practical function approximators, with many benefits over standard GPs such as the ability to naturally handle non-stationarity and learn representations for high-dimensional data. In this paper, we study BNNs as alternatives to standard GP surrogates for optimization. We consider a variety of approximate inference procedures for finite-width BNNs, including high-quality Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, low-cost stochastic MCMC, and heuristics such as deep ensembles. We also consider infinite-width BNNs, linearized Laplace approximations, and partially stochastic models such as deep kernel learning. We evaluate this collection of surrogate models on diverse problems with varying dimensionality, number of objectives, non-stationarity, and discrete and continuous inputs. We find: (i) the ranking of methods is highly problem dependent, suggesting the need for tailored inductive biases; (ii) HMC is the most successful approximate inference procedure for fully stochastic BNNs; (iii) full stochasticity may be unnecessary as deep kernel learning is relatively competitive; (iv) deep ensembles perform relatively poorly; (v) infinite-width BNNs are particularly promising, especially in high dimensions.

Generative models have the potential to accelerate key steps in the discovery of novel molecular therapeutics and materials. Diffusion models have recently emerged as a powerful approach, excelling at unconditional sample generation and, with data-driven guidance, conditional generation within their training domain. Reliably sampling from high-value regions beyond the training data, however, remains an open challenge---with current methods predominantly focusing on modifying the diffusion process itself. In this paper, we develop context-guided diffusion (CGD), a simple plug-and-play method that leverages unlabeled data and smoothness constraints to improve the out-of-distribution generalization of guided diffusion models. We demonstrate that this approach leads to substantial performance gains across various settings, including continuous, discrete, and graph-structured diffusion processes with applications across drug discovery, materials science, and protein design.

Modern language models can contain billions of parameters, raising the question of whether they can generalize beyond the training data or simply parrot their training corpora. We provide the first non-vacuous generalization bounds for pretrained large language models (LLMs), indicating that language models are capable of discovering regularities that generalize to unseen data. In particular, we derive a compression bound that is valid for the unbounded log-likelihood loss using prediction smoothing, and we extend the bound to handle subsampling, making bound computation 900 times faster on massive datasets. To achieve the extreme level of compression required for non-vacuous bounds, we devise SubLoRA, a simple low-dimensional nonlinear parameterization that leads to non-vacuous generalization bounds for very large models with up to 849 million parameters. Finally, we use our bounds to understand LLM generalization and find that larger models have better generalization bounds and are more compressible than smaller models.

In the current landscape of deep learning research, there is a predominant emphasis on achieving high predictive accuracy in supervised tasks involving large image and language datasets. However, a broader perspective reveals a multitude of overlooked metrics, tasks, and data types, such as uncertainty, active and continual learning, and scientific data, that demand attention. Bayesian deep learning (BDL) constitutes a promising avenue, offering advantages across these diverse settings. This paper posits that BDL can elevate the capabilities of deep learning. It revisits the strengths of BDL, acknowledges existing challenges, and highlights some exciting research avenues aimed at addressing these obstacles. Looking ahead, the discussion focuses on possible ways to combine large-scale foundation models with BDL to unlock their full potential.

Embodied AI agents require a fine-grained understanding of the physical world mediated through visual and language inputs. Such capabilities are difficult to learn solely from task-specific data. This has led to the emergence of pre-trained vision-language models as a tool for transferring representations learned from internet-scale data to downstream tasks and new domains. However, commonly used contrastively trained representations such as in CLIP have been shown to fail at enabling embodied agents to gain a sufficiently fine-grained scene understanding—a capability vital for control. To address this shortcoming, we consider representations from pre-trained text-to-image diffusion models, which are explicitly optimized to generate images from text prompts and as such, contain text-conditioned representations that reflect highly fine-grained visuo-spatial information. Using pre-trained text-to-image diffusion models, we construct Stable Control Representations which allow learning downstream control policies that generalize to complex, open-ended environments. We show that policies learned using Stable Control Representations are competitive with state-of-the-art representation learning approaches across a broad range of simulated control settings, encompassing challenging manipulation and navigation tasks. Most notably, we show that Stable Control Representations enable learning policies that exhibit state-of-the-art performance on OVMM, a difficult open-vocabulary navigation benchmark.

Accelerating the discovery of novel and more effective therapeutics is an important pharmaceutical problem in which deep learning is playing an increasingly significant role. However, real-world drug discovery tasks are often characterized by a scarcity of labeled data and significant covariate shift---a setting that poses a challenge to standard deep learning methods. In this paper, we present Q-SAVI, a probabilistic model able to address these challenges by encoding explicit prior knowledge of the data-generating process into a prior distribution over functions, presenting researchers with a transparent and probabilistically principled way to encode data-driven modeling preferences. Building on a novel, gold-standard bioactivity dataset that facilitates a meaningful comparison of models in an extrapolative regime, we explore different approaches to induce data shift and construct a challenging evaluation setup. We then demonstrate that using Q-SAVI to integrate contextualized prior knowledge of drug-like chemical space into the modeling process affords substantial gains in predictive accuracy and calibration, outperforming a broad range of state-of-the-art self-supervised pre-training and domain adaptation techniques.

Parameter-space regularization in neural network optimization is a fundamental tool for improving generalization. However, standard parameter-space regularization methods make it challenging to encode explicit preferences about desired predictive functions into neural network training. In this work, we approach regularization in neural networks from a probabilistic perspective and show that by viewing parameter-space regularization as specifying an empirical prior distribution over the model parameters, we can derive a probabilistically well-motivated regularization technique that allows explicitly encoding information about desired predictive functions into neural network training. This method—which we refer to as function-space empirical Bayes (FS-EB)—includes both parameter- and function-space regularization, is mathematically simple, easy to implement, and incurs only minimal computational overhead compared to standard regularization techniques. We evaluate the utility of this regularization technique empirically and demonstrate that the proposed method leads to near-perfect semantic shift detection, highly-calibrated predictive uncertainty estimates, successful task adaption from pre-trained models, and improved generalization under covariate shift.

A popular approach to protein design is to combine a generative model with a discriminative model for conditional sampling. The generative model samples plausible sequences while the discriminative model guides a search for sequences with high fitness. Given its broad success in conditional sampling, classifier-guided diffusion modeling is a promising foundation for protein design, leading many to develop guided diffusion models for structure with inverse folding to recover sequences. In this work, we propose diffusioN Optimized Sampling (NOS), a guidance method for discrete diffusion models that follows gradients in the hidden states of the denoising network. NOS makes it possible to perform design directly in sequence space, circumventing significant limitations of structure-based methods, including scarce data and challenging inverse design. Moreover, we use NOS to generalize LaMBO, a Bayesian optimization procedure for sequence design that facilitates multiple objectives and edit-based constraints. The resulting method, LaMBO-2, enables discrete diffusions and stronger performance with limited edits through a novel application of saliency maps. We apply LaMBO-2 to a real-world protein design task, optimizing antibodies for higher expression yield and binding affinity to several therapeutic targets under locality and developability constraints, attaining a 99\% expression rate and 40\% binding rate in exploratory in vitro experiments.

Standard regularized training procedures correspond to maximizing a posterior distribution over parameters, known as maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation. However, model parameters are of interest only insomuch as they combine with the functional form of a model to provide a function that can make good predictions. Moreover, the most likely parameters under the parameter posterior do not generally correspond to the most likely function induced by the parameter posterior. In fact, we can re-parametrize a model such that any setting of parameters can maximize the parameter posterior. As an alternative, we investigate the benefits and drawbacks of directly estimating the most likely function implied by the model and the data. We show that this procedure leads to pathological solutions when using neural networks and prove conditions under which the procedure is well-behaved, as well as a scalable approximation. Under these conditions, we find that function-space MAP estimation can lead to flatter minima, better generalization, and improved robustness to overfitting.

Variance-Invariance-Covariance Regularization (VICReg) is a self-supervised learning (SSL) method that has shown promising results on a variety of tasks. However, the fundamental mechanisms underlying VICReg remain unexplored. In this paper, we present an information-theoretic perspective on the VICReg objective. We begin by deriving information-theoretic quantities for deterministic networks as an alternative to unrealistic stochastic network assumptions. We then relate the optimization of the VICReg objective to mutual information optimization, highlighting underlying assumptions and facilitating a constructive comparison with other SSL algorithms and derive a generalization bound for VICReg, revealing its inherent advantages for downstream tasks. Building on these results, we introduce a family of SSL methods derived from information-theoretic principles that outperform existing SSL techniques.

Vision-language pretrained models have seen remarkable success, but their application to safety-critical settings is limited by their lack of interpretability. To improve the interpretability of vision-language models such as CLIP, we propose a multi-modal information bottleneck (M2IB) approach that learns latent representations that compress irrelevant information while preserving relevant visual and textual features. We demonstrate how M2IB can be applied to attribution analysis of vision-language pretrained models, increasing attribution accuracy and improving the interpretability of such models when applied to safety-critical domains such as healthcare. Crucially, unlike commonly used unimodal attribution methods, M2IB does not require ground truth labels, making it possible to audit representations of vision-language pretrained models when multiple modalities but no ground-truth data is available. Using CLIP as an example, we demonstrate the effectiveness of M2IB attribution and show that it outperforms gradient-based, perturbation-based, and attention-based attribution methods both qualitatively and quantitatively.

Sequential Bayesian inference over predictive functions is a natural framework for continual learning from streams of data. However, applying it to neural networks has proved challenging in practice. Addressing the drawbacks of existing techniques, we propose an optimization objective derived by formulating continual learning as sequential function-space variational inference. In contrast to existing methods that regularize neural network parameters directly, this objective allows parameters to vary widely during training, enabling better adaptation to new tasks. Compared to objectives that directly regularize neural network predictions, the proposed objective allows for more flexible variational distributions and more effective regularization. We demonstrate that, across a range of task sequences, neural networks trained via sequential function-space variational inference achieve better predictive accuracy than networks trained with related methods while depending less on maintaining a set of representative points from previous tasks.

Reliable predictive uncertainty estimation plays an important role in enabling the deployment of neural networks to safety-critical settings. A popular approach for estimating the predictive uncertainty of neural networks is to define a prior distribution over the network parameters, infer an approximate posterior distribution, and use it to make stochastic predictions. However, explicit inference over neural network parameters makes it difficult to incorporate meaningful prior information about the data-generating process into the model. In this paper, we pursue an alternative approach. Recognizing that the primary object of interest in most settings is the distribution over functions induced by the posterior distribution over neural network parameters, we frame Bayesian inference in neural networks explicitly as inferring a posterior distribution over functions and propose a scalable function-space variational inference method that allows incorporating prior information and results in reliable predictive uncertainty estimates. We show that the proposed method leads to state-of-the-art uncertainty estimation and predictive performance on a range of prediction tasks and demonstrate that it performs well on a challenging safety-critical medical diagnosis task in which reliable uncertainty estimation is essential.

We show that the gradient estimates used in training Deep Gaussian Processes (DGPs) with importance-weighted variational inference are susceptible to signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) issues. Specifically, we show both theoretically and via an extensive empirical evaluation that the SNR of the gradient estimates for the latent variable’s variational parameters decreases as the number of importance samples increases. As a result, these gradient estimates degrade to pure noise if the number of importance samples is too large. To address this pathology, we show how doubly-reparameterized gradient estimators, originally proposed for training variational autoencoders, can be adapted to the DGP setting and that the resultant estimators completely remedy the SNR issue, thereby providing more reliable training. Finally, we demonstrate that our fix can lead to consistent improvements in the predictive performance of DGP models.

KL-regularized reinforcement learning from expert demonstrations has proved successful in improving the sample efficiency of deep reinforcement learning algorithms, allowing them to be applied to challenging physical real-world tasks. However, we show that KL-regularized reinforcement learning with behavioral reference policies derived from expert demonstrations can suffer from pathological training dynamics that can lead to slow, unstable, and suboptimal online learning. We show empirically that the pathology occurs for commonly chosen behavioral policy classes and demonstrate its impact on sample efficiency and online policy performance. Finally, we show that the pathology can be remedied by non-parametric behavioral reference policies and that this allows KL-regularized reinforcement learning to significantly outperform state-of-the-art approaches on a variety of challenging locomotion and dexterous hand manipulation tasks.

While reinforcement learning algorithms provide automated acquisition of optimal policies, practical application of such methods requires a number of design decisions, such as manually designing reward functions that not only define the task, but also provide sufficient shaping to accomplish it. In this paper, we view reinforcement learning as inferring policies that achieve desired outcomes, rather than as a problem of maximizing rewards. To solve this inference problem, we establish a novel variational inference formulation that allows us to derive a well-shaped reward function which can be learned directly from environment interactions. From the corresponding variational objective, we also derive a new probabilistic Bellman backup operator and use it to develop an off-policy algorithm to solve goal-directed tasks. We empirically demonstrate that this method eliminates the need to hand-craft reward functions for a suite of diverse manipulation and locomotion tasks and leads to effective goal-directed behaviors.

Inter-domain Gaussian processes (GPs) allow for high flexibility and low computational cost when performing approximate inference in GP models. They are particularly suitable for modeling data exhibiting global structure but are limited to stationary covariance functions and thus fail to model non-stationary data effectively. We propose Inter-domain Deep Gaussian Processes, an extension of inter-domain shallow GPs that combines the advantages of inter-domain and deep Gaussian processes (DGPs), and demonstrate how to leverage existing approximate inference methods to perform simple and scalable approximate inference using inter-domain features in DGPs. We assess the performance of our method on a range of regression tasks and demonstrate that it outperforms inter-domain shallow GPs and conventional DGPs on challenging large-scale real-world datasets exhibiting both global structure as well as a high-degree of non-stationarity.

We propose a novel approach for rapid segmentation of flooded buildings by fusing multiresolution, multisensor, and multitemporal satellite imagery in a convolutional neural network. Our model significantly expedites the generation of satellite imagery-based flood maps, crucial for first responders and local authorities in the early stages of flood events. By incorporating multitemporal satellite imagery, our model allows for rapid and accurate post-disaster damage assessment and can be used by governments to better coordinate medium- and long-term financial assistance programs for affected areas. The network consists of multiple streams of encoder-decoder architectures that extract spatiotemporal information from medium-resolution images and spatial information from high-resolution images before fusing the resulting representations into a single medium-resolution segmentation map of flooded buildings. We compare our model to state-of-the-art methods for building footprint segmentation as well as to alternative fusion approaches for the segmentation of flooded buildings and find that our model performs best on both tasks. We also demonstrate that our model produces highly accurate segmentation maps of flooded buildings using only publicly available medium-resolution data instead of significantly more detailed but sparsely available very high-resolution data. We release the first open-source dataset of fully preprocessed and labeled multiresolution, multispectral, and multitemporal satellite images of disaster sites along with our source code.

Applying probabilistic models to reinforcement learning (RL) enables the uses of powerful optimisation tools such as variational inference in RL. However, existing inference frameworks and their algorithms pose significant challenges for learning optimal policies, e.g., the lack of mode capturing behaviour in pseudo-likelihood methods, difficulties learning deterministic policies in maximum entropy RL based approaches, and a lack of analysis when function approximators are used. We propose VIREL, a theoretically grounded probabilistic inference framework for RL that utilises a parametrised action-value function to summarise future dynamics of the underlying MDP, generalising existing approaches. VIREL also benefits from a mode-seeking form of KL divergence, the ability to learn deterministic optimal polices naturally from inference, and the ability to optimise value functions and policies in separate, iterative steps. In applying variational expectation-maximisation to VIREL, we thus show that the actor-critic algorithm can be reduced to expectation-maximisation, with policy improvement equivalent to an E-step and policy evaluation to an M-step. We then derive a family of actor-critic methods fromVIREL, including a scheme for adaptive exploration. Finally, we demonstrate that actor-critic algorithms from this family outperform state-of-the-art methods based on soft value functions in several domains.