Despite significant advances in quality and complexity of the generations in text-to-image models, prompting does not always lead to the desired outputs. Controlling model behaviour by directly steering intermediate model activations has emerged as a viable alternative allowing to reach concepts in latent space that may otherwise remain inaccessible by prompt. In this work, we introduce a set of experiments to deepen our understanding of concept reachability. We design a training data setup with three key obstacles: scarcity of concepts, underspecification of concepts in the captions, and data biases with tied concepts. Our results show: (i) concept reachability in latent space exhibits a distinct phase transition, with only a small number of samples being sufficient to enable reachability, (ii) where in the latent space the intervention is performed critically impacts reachability, showing that certain concepts are reachable only at certain stages of transformation, and (iii) while prompting ability rapidly diminishes with a decrease in quality of the dataset, concepts often remain reliably reachable through steering. Model providers can leverage this to bypass costly retraining and dataset curation and instead innovate with user-facing control mechanisms.

Updating observations of a signal due to the delays in the measurement process is a common problem in signal processing, with prominent examples in a wide range of fields. An important example of this problem is the nowcasting of COVID-19 mortality: given a stream of reported counts of daily deaths, can we correct for the delays in reporting to paint an accurate picture of the present, with uncertainty? Without this correction, raw data will often mislead by suggesting an improving situation. We present a flexible approach using a latent Gaussian process that is capable of describing the changing auto-correlation structure present in the reporting time-delay surface. This approach also yields robust estimates of uncertainty for the estimated nowcasted numbers of deaths. We test assumptions in model specification such as the choice of kernel or hyper priors, and evaluate model performance on a challenging real dataset from Brazil. Our experiments show that Gaussian process nowcasting performs favourably against both comparable methods, and against a small sample of expert human predictions. Our approach has substantial practical utility in disease modelling — by applying our approach to COVID-19 mortality data from Brazil, where reporting delays are large, we can make informative predictions on important epidemiological quantities such as the current effective reproduction number.

We propose a novel class of network models for temporal dyadic interaction data. Our objective is to capture important features often observed in social interactions: sparsity, degree heterogeneity, community structure and reciprocity. We use mutually-exciting Hawkes processes to model the interactions between each (directed) pair of individuals. The intensity of each process allows interactions to arise as responses to opposite interactions (reciprocity), or due to shared interests between individuals (community structure). For sparsity and degree heterogeneity, we build the non time dependent part of the intensity function on compound random measures following Todeschini et al., 2016. We conduct experiments on real-world temporal interaction data and show that the proposed model outperforms competing approaches for link prediction, and leads to interpretable parameters.