Data in many practical problems are acquired according to decisions or actions made by users or experts to achieve specific goals. For instance, policies in the mind of biologists during the intervention process in genomics and metagenomics are often reflected in available data in these domains, or data in cyber-physical systems are often acquired according to actions/decisions made by experts/engineers for purposes, such as control or stabilization. Quantification of experts' policies through available data, which is also known as reward function learning, has been discussed extensively in the literature in the context of inverse reinforcement learning (IRL). However, most of the available techniques come short to deal with practical problems due to the following main reasons: 1) lack of scalability: arising from incapability or poor performance of existing techniques in dealing with large systems and 2) lack of reliability: coming from the incapability of the existing techniques to properly learn the optimal reward function during the learning process. Toward this, in this brief, we propose a multifidelity Bayesian optimization (MFBO) framework that significantly scales the learning process of a wide range of existing IRL techniques. The proposed framework enables the incorporation of multiple approximators and efficiently takes their uncertainty and computational costs into account to balance exploration and exploitation during the learning process. The proposed framework's high performance is demonstrated through genomics, metagenomics, and sets of random simulated problems.

State-space models (SSMs) are a rich class of dynamical models with a wide range of applications in economics, healthcare, computational biology, robotics, and more. Proper analysis, control, learning, and decision-making in dynamical systems modeled by SSMs depend on the accuracy of the inferred/learned model. Most of the existing inference techniques for SSMs are capable of dealing with very small systems, unable to be applied to most of the large-scale practical problems. Toward this, this article introduces a two-stage Bayesian optimization (BO) framework for scalable and efficient inference in SSMs. The proposed framework maps the original large parameter space to a reduced space, containing a small linear combination of the original space. This reduced space, which captures the most variability in the inference function (e.g., log likelihood or log a posteriori), is obtained by eigenvalue decomposition of the covariance of gradients of the inference function approximated by a particle filtering scheme. Then, an exponential reduction in the search space of parameters during the inference process is achieved through the proposed two-stage BO policy, where the solution of the first-stage BO policy in the reduced space specifies the search space of the second-stage BO in the original space. The proposed framework's accuracy and speed are demonstrated through several experiments, including real metagenomics data from a gut microbial community.

Design is an inseparable part of most scientific and engineering tasks, including real and simulation-based experimental design processes and parameter/hyperparameter tuning/optimization. Several model-based experimental design techniques have been developed for design in domains with partial available knowledge about the underlying process. This article focuses on a powerful class of model-based experimental design called the mean objective cost of uncertainty (MOCU). The MOCU-based techniques are objective-based, meaning that they take the main objective of the process into account during the experimental design process. However, the lack of scalability of MOCU-based techniques prevents their application to most practical problems, including large discrete or combinatorial spaces. To achieve a scalable objective-based experimental design, this article proposes a graph-based MOCU-based Bayesian optimization framework. The correlations among samples in the large design space are accounted for using a graph-based Gaussian process, and an efficient closed-form sequential selection is achieved through the well-known expected improvement policy. The proposed framework's performance is assessed through the structural intervention in gene regulatory networks, aiming to make the network away from the states associated with cancer.

Partially-Observed Boolean dynamical systems (POBDS) are a general class of nonlinear state-space models consisting of a hidden Boolean state process observed through an arbitrary noisy mapping to a measurement space. The huge uncertainty present in systems/processes, along with the time-limit constraints, necessitate real-time or online joint state and parameter estimation of POBDS. In this manuscript, we present a real-time joint state and parameter estimation framework for POBDS. The proposed framework relies on a complete-sufficient statistic of parameters, where a joint state and parameter estimation is achieved based on the combination of online expectation-maximization method and the optimal MMSE state estimator for POBDS, called Boolean Kalman filter. The proposed method’s performance is assessed through a POBDS model for Boolean gene regulatory networks observed through noisy measurements.

Nonlinear state-space models are ubiquitous in modeling real-world dynamical systems. Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) techniques, also known as particle methods, are a well-known class of parameter estimation methods for this general class of state-space models. Existing SMC-based techniques rely on excessive sampling of the parameter space, which makes their computation intractable for large systems or tall data sets. Bayesian optimization techniques have been used for fast inference in state-space models with intractable likelihoods. These techniques aim to find the maximum of the likelihood function by sequential sampling of the parameter space through a single SMC approximator. Various SMC approximators with different fidelities and computational costs are often available for sample-based likelihood approximation. In this paper, we propose a multi-fidelity Bayesian optimization algorithm for the inference of general nonlinear state-space models (MFBO-SSM), which enables simultaneous sequential selection of parameters and approximators. The accuracy and speed of the algorithm are demonstrated by numerical experiments using synthetic gene expression data from a gene regulatory network model and real data from the VIX stock price index.

We propose a Bayesian decision making framework for control of Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) with unknown dynamics and large, possibly continuous, state, action, and parameter spaces in data-poor environments. Most of the existing adaptive controllers for MDPs with unknown dynamics are based on the reinforcement learning framework and rely on large data sets acquired by sustained direct interaction with the system or via a simulator. This is not feasible in many applications, due to ethical, economic, and physical constraints. The proposed framework addresses the data poverty issue by decomposing the problem into an offline planning stage that does not rely on sustained direct interaction with the system or simulator and an online execution stage. In the offline process, parallel Gaussian process temporal difference (GPTD) learning techniques are employed for near-optimal Bayesian approximation of the expected discounted reward over a sample drawn from the prior distribution of unknown parameters. In the online stage, the action with the maximum expected return with respect to the posterior distribution of the parameters is selected. This is achieved by an approximation of the posterior distribution using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm, followed by constructing multiple Gaussian processes over the parameter space for efficient prediction of the means of the expected return at the MCMC sample. The effectiveness of the proposed framework is demonstrated using a simple dynamical system model with continuous state and action spaces, as well as a more complex model for a metastatic melanoma gene regulatory network observed through noisy synthetic gene expression data.