Goal recognition (GR) involves inferring the goals of other vehicles, such as a certain junction exit, which can enable more accurate prediction of their future behaviour. In autonomous driving, vehicles can encounter many different scenarios and the environment may be partially observable due to occlusions. We present a novel GR method named Goal Recognition with Interpretable Trees under Occlusion (OGRIT). OGRIT uses decision trees learned from vehicle trajectory data to infer the probabilities of a set of generated goals. We demonstrate that OGRIT can handle missing data due to occlusions and make inferences across multiple scenarios using the same learned decision trees, while being computationally fast, accurate, interpretable and verifiable. We also release the inDO, rounDO and OpenDDO datasets of occluded regions used to evaluate OGRIT.

We propose an integrated prediction and planning system for autonomous driving which uses rational inverse planning to recognise the goals of other vehicles. Goal recognition informs a Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) algorithm to plan optimal maneuvers for the ego vehicle. Inverse planning and MCTS utilise a shared set of defined maneuvers and macro actions to construct plans which are explainable by means of rationality principles. Evaluation in simulations of urban driving scenarios demonstrate the system’s ability to robustly recognise the goals of other vehicles, enabling our vehicle to exploit non-trivial opportunities to significantly reduce driving times. In each scenario, we extract intuitive explanations for the predictions which justify the system’s decisions.

It is important for autonomous vehicles to have the ability to infer the goals of other vehicles (goal recognition), in order to safely interact with other vehicles and predict their future trajectories. This is a difficult problem, especially in urban environments with interactions between many vehicles. Goal recognition methods must be fast to run in real time and make accurate inferences. As autonomous driving is safety- critical, it is important to have methods which are human interpretable and for which safety can be formally verified. Existing goal recognition methods for autonomous vehicles fail to satisfy all four objectives of being fast, accurate, interpretable and verifiable. We propose Goal Recognition with Interpre table Trees (GRIT), a goal recognition system which achieves these objectives. GRIT makes use of decision trees trained on vehicle trajectory data. We evaluate GRIT on two datasets, showing that GRIT achieved fast inference speed and comparable accuracy to two deep learning baselines, a planning-based goal recognition method, and an ablation of GRIT. We show that the learned trees are human interpretable and demonstrate how properties of GRIT can be formally verified using a satisfiability modulo theories (SMT) solver.