Machine learning techniques have been widely used and are mostly performed by predicting point estimation. Nevertheless, there are various scenarios that require more information beyond only point estimation. Probabilistic prediction is a typical research topic that provides probability distribution while predicting, which addressed with much attention recently. Most of the previous works make an assumption on the probabilistic distribution to a certain extent, which may lead to potential errors in the subsequent decision-making procedure. In this paper, we propose a distribution-free method for regression problems on real-value response under the probabilistic prediction framework and present an effective boosting-based method to perform the training process. Moreover, we introduce a further improved method to accomplish an unbiased mean estimation of the target distribution. Thorough experiments on multiple benchmark data are conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method with regard to different measures.

Decision rules have been successfully used in various classification applications because of their interpretability and efficiency. In many real-world scenarios, especially in industrial applications, it is necessary to generate rule sets under certain constraints, such as confidence constraints. However, most previous rule mining methods only emphasize the accuracy of the rule set but take no consideration of these constraints. In this paper, we propose a Confidence-constraint Rule Set Learning (CRSL) framework consisting of three main components, i.e. rule miner, rule ranker, and rule subset selector. Our method not only considers the trade-off between confidence and coverage of the rule set but also considers the trade-off between interpretability and performance. Experiments on benchmark data and large-scale industrial data demonstrate that the proposed method is able to achieve better performance (6.7% and 8.8% improvements) and competitive interpretability when compared with other rule set learning methods.

Machine learning methods for fraud detection have achieved impressive prediction performance, but often sacrifice critical interpretability in many applications. In this work, we propose to learn interpretable models for fraud detection as a simple rule set. More specifically, we design a novel neural rule learning method by building a condition graph with an expectation to capture the high-order feature interactions. Each path in this condition graph can be regarded as a single rule. Inspired by the key idea of meta learning, we combine the neural rules with rules extracted from the tree-based models in order to provide generalizable rule candidates. Finally, we propose a flexible rule set learning framework by designing a greedy optimization method towards maximizing the recall number of fraud samples with a predefined criterion as the cost. We conduct comprehensive experiments on large-scale industrial datasets. Interestingly, we find that the neural rules and rules extracted from tree-based models can be complementary to each other to improve the prediction performance.

E-commerce has gone a long way in empowering merchants through the internet. In order to store the goods efficiently and arrange the marketing resource properly, it is important for them to make the accurate gross merchandise value (GMV) prediction. However, it's nontrivial to make accurate prediction with the deficiency of digitized data. In this article, we present a solution to better forecast GMV inside Alipay app. Thanks to graph neural networks (G NN) which has great ability to correlate different entities to enrich information, we propose Gaia, a graph neural network (GNN) model with temporal shift aware attention. Gaia leverages the relevant e-seller’ sales information and learn neighbor correlation based on temporal dependencies. By testing on Alipay's real dataset and comparing with other baselines, Gaia has shown the best performance. And Gaia is deployed in the simulated online environment, which also achieves great improvement compared with baselines.

Credit risk prediction is a fundamental problem for most financial institutions.Previous methods mainly adopt users' individual features on a single snapshot.However, users' individual features on financial platforms are usually too sparse to be informative.And previous methods ignore that the features, the behaviours and the credit risk of the users are all dynamic.To resolve the problems, we aim to model the credit risk prediction on dynamic graphs and propose a Temporal-Aware Graph Neural Network (TemGNN) to predict user credit risk.In detail, the model consists of three parts: i) a static model to extract the user's static factors regarding the credit risk.ii) a short-term graph encoder with special graph convolution modules for each snapshot to enrich the user's information through aggregating short-term temporal and structural information.iii) a long-term temporal model based on LSTM with interval-decayed attention to adaptively aggregate the long-term information from the static factors and interval-irregular dynamic snapshots.By combining the three parts together, our model is able to mine both the short-and long-term temporal-structural information.Experimentally, we use the users' authorized lending behaviours as the temporal graphs to do default prediction on Alipay.The results show that our model achieves the best performance among the state-of-the-art methods.

Dynamic graphs such as the user-item interactions graphs and financial transaction networks are ubiquitous nowadays. While numerous representation learning methods for static graphs have been proposed, the study of dynamic graphs is still in its infancy. A main challenge of modeling dynamic graphs is how to effectively encode temporal and structural information into nonlinear and compact dynamic embeddings. To achieve this, we propose a principled graph-neural-based approach to learn continuous-time dynamic embeddings. We first define a temporal dependency interaction graph(TDIG) that is induced from sequences of interaction data. Based on the topology of this TDIG, we develop a dynamic message passing neural network named TDIG-MPNN, which can capture the fine-grained global and local information on TDIG. In addition, to enhance the quality of continuous-time dynamic embeddings, a novel selection mechanism comprised of two successive steps, i.e., co-attention and gating, is applied before the above TDIG-MPNN layer to adjust the importance of the nodes by considering high-order correlation between interactive nodes' k-depth neighbors on TDIG. Finally, we cast our learning problem in the framework of temporal point processes (TPPs) where we use TDIG-MPNN to design a neural intensity function for the dynamic interaction processes. Our model achieves superior performance over alternatives on temporal interaction prediction (including tranductive and inductive tasks) on multiple datasets.

Aiming to effectively distinguish loan default in the Mobile Credit Payment Service, industrial efforts mainly attempt to employ conventional classifier with complicated feature engineer for prediction. However, these solutions fail to exploit multiplex relations existed in the financial scenarios and ignore the key intrinsic properties of the loan default detection, i.e., communicability, complementation and induction. To address these issues, we develop a novel attributed multiplex graph based loan default detection approach for effectively integrating multiplex relations in financial scenarios. Considering the complexity of financial scenario, an Attributed Multiplex Graph (AMG) is proposed to jointly model various relations and objects as well as the rich attributes on nodes and edges. We elaborately design relation-specific receptive layers equipped with adaptive breadth function to incorporate important information derived from local structure in each aspect of AMG and stack multiple propagation layer to explore the high-order connectivity information. Furthermore, a relation-specific attention mechanism is adopted to emphasize relevant information during end-to-end training. Extensive experiments conducted on the large-scale real- world dataset verify the effectiveness of the proposed model com- pared with state of arts. Moreover, AMG-DP has also achieved a performance improvement of 9.37% on KS metric in recent months after successful deployment in the Alipay APP.

Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs) are playing a vital role in the modern economy. Recent years, financial risk analysis for SMEs attracts lots of attentions from financial institutions. However, the financial risk analysis for SMEs usually suffers data deficiency problem, especially for the mobile financial institutions which seldom collect credit-related data directly from SMEs. Fortunately, although credit-related information of SMEs is hard to be acquired sufficiently, the interactive relationships between SMEs, which may contain valuable information of financial risk, is usually available for the mobile financial institutions. Finding out credit-related relationship of SME from massive interactions helps comprehensively model the SMEs thus improve the performance of financial risk analysis. In this paper, tackling the data deficiency problem of financial risk analysis for SMEs, we propose an innovative financial risk analysis framework with graph-based supply chain mining. Specifically, to capture the credit-related topology structural and temporal variation information of SMEs, we design and employ a novel spatial-temporal aware graph neural network, to mine supply chain relationship on a SME graph, and then analysis the credit risk based on the mined supply chain graph. Experimental results on real-world financial datasets prove the effectiveness of our proposal for financial risk analysis for SMEs.

With the rapid growth of financial services, fraud detection has been a very important problem to guarantee a healthy environment for both users and providers. Conventional solutions for fraud detection mainly use some rule-based methods or distract some features manually to perform prediction. However, in financial services, users have rich interactions and they themselves always show multifaceted information. These data form a large multiview network, which is not fully exploited by conventional methods. Additionally, among the network, only very few of the users are labelled, which also poses a great challenge for only utilizing labeled data to achieve a satisfied performance on fraud detection. To address the problem, we expand the labeled data through their social relations to get the unlabeled data and propose a semi-supervised attentive graph neural network, named SemiGNN to utilize the multi-view labeled and unlabeled data for fraud detection. Moreover, we propose a hierarchical attention mechanism to better correlate different neighbors and different views. Simultaneously, the attention mechanism can make the model interpretable and tell what are the important factors for the fraud and why the users are predicted as fraud. Experimentally, we conduct the prediction task on the users of Alipay, one of the largest third-party online and offline cashless payment platform serving more than 4 hundreds of million users in China. By utilizing the social relations and the user attributes, our method can achieve a better accuracy compared with the state-of-the-art methods on two tasks. Moreover, the interpretable results also give interesting intuitions regarding the tasks.

Ant Credit Pay is a consumer credit service in Ant Financial Service Group. Similar to credit card, loan default is one of the major risks of this credit product. Hence, effective algorithm for default prediction is the key to losses reduction and profits increment for the company. However, the challenges facing in our scenario are different from those in conventional credit card service. The first one is scalability. The huge volume of users and their behaviors in Ant Financial requires the ability to process industrial-scale data and perform model training efficiently. The second challenges is the cold-start problem. Different from the manual review for credit card application in conventional banks, the credit limit of Ant Credit Pay is automatically offered to users based on the knowledge learned from big data. However, default prediction for new users is suffered from lack of enough credit behaviors. It requires that the proposal should leverage other new data source to alleviate the cold-start problem. Considering the above challenges and the special scenario in Ant Financial, we try to incorporate default prediction with network information to alleviate the cold-start problem. In this paper, we propose an industrial-scale distributed network representation framework, termed NetDP, for default prediction in Ant Credit Pay. The proposal explores network information generated by various interaction between users, and blends unsupervised and supervised network representation in a unified framework for default prediction problem. Moreover, we present a parameter-server-based distributed implement of our proposal to handle the scalability challenge. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposal, especially in cold-start problem, as well as the efficiency for industrial-scale dataset.