A popular perspective in Reinforcement learning (RL) casts the problem as probabilistic inference on a graphical model of the Markov decision process (MDP). The core object of study is the probability of each state-action pair being visited under the optimal policy. Previous approaches to approximate this quantity can be arbitrarily poor, leading to algorithms that do not implement genuine statistical inference and consequently do not perform well in challenging problems. In this work, we undertake a rigorous Bayesian treatment of the posterior probability of state-action optimality and clarify how it flows through the MDP. We first reveal that this quantity can indeed be used to generate a policy that explores efficiently, as measured by regret. Unfortunately, computing it is intractable, so we derive a new variational Bayesian approximation yielding a tractable convex optimization problem and establish that the resulting policy also explores efficiently. We call our approach VAPOR and show that it has strong connections to Thompson sampling, K-learning, and maximum entropy exploration. We conclude with some experiments demonstrating the performance advantage of a deep RL version of VAPOR.

We introduce a generic strategy for provably efficient multi-goal exploration. It relies on AdaGoal, a novel goal selection scheme that leverages a measure of uncertainty in reaching states to adaptively target goals that are neither too difficult nor too easy. We show how AdaGoal can be used to tackle the objective of learning an $\epsilon$-optimal goal-conditioned policy for the (initially unknown) set of goal states that are reachable within $L$ steps in expectation from a reference state $s_0$ in a reward-free Markov decision process. In the tabular case with $S$ states and $A$ actions, our algorithm requires $\tilde{O}(L^3 S A \epsilon^{-2})$ exploration steps, which is nearly minimax optimal. We also readily instantiate AdaGoal in linear mixture Markov decision processes, yielding the first goal-oriented PAC guarantee with linear function approximation. Beyond its strong theoretical guarantees, we anchor AdaGoal in goal-conditioned deep reinforcement learning, both conceptually and empirically, by connecting its idea of selecting "uncertain" goals to maximizing value ensemble disagreement.

We consider the objective of computing an $\epsilon$-optimal policy in a stochastic shortest path (SSP) setting, provided that we can access a generative sampling oracle. We propose two algorithms for this setting and derive PAC bounds on their sample complexity: one for the case of positive costs and the other for the case of non-negative costs under a restricted optimality criterion. While tight sample complexity bounds have been derived for the finite-horizon and discounted MDPs, the SSP problem is a strict generalization of these settings and it poses additional technical challenges due to the fact that no specific time horizon is prescribed and policies may never terminate, i.e., we are possibly facing non-proper policies. As a consequence, we can neither directly apply existing techniques minimizing sample complexity nor rely on a regret-to-PAC conversion leveraging recent regret bounds for SSP. Our analysis instead combines SSP-specific tools and variance reduction techniques to obtain the first sample complexity bounds for this setting.

One of the challenges in online reinforcement learning (RL) is that the agent needs to trade off the exploration of the environment and the exploitation of the samples to optimize its behavior. Whether we optimize for regret, sample complexity, state-space coverage or model estimation, we need to strike a different exploration-exploitation trade-off. In this paper, we propose to tackle the exploration-exploitation problem following a decoupled approach composed of: 1) An "objective-specific" algorithm that (adaptively) prescribes how many samples to collect at which states, as if it has access to a generative model (i.e., a simulator of the environment); 2) An "objective-agnostic" sample collection exploration strategy responsible for generating the prescribed samples as fast as possible. Building on recent methods for exploration in the stochastic shortest path problem, we first provide an algorithm that, given as input the number of samples $b(s,a)$ needed in each state-action pair, requires $\widetilde{O}(B D + D^{3/2} S^2 A)$ time steps to collect the $B=\sum_{s,a} b(s,a)$ desired samples, in any unknown communicating MDP with $S$ states, $A$ actions and diameter $D$. Then we show how this general-purpose exploration algorithm can be paired with "objective-specific" strategies that prescribe the sample requirements to tackle a variety of settings — e.g., model estimation, sparse reward discovery, goal-free cost-free exploration in communicating MDPs — for which we obtain improved or novel sample complexity guarantees.

We study the problem of learning in the stochastic shortest path (SSP) setting, where an agent seeks to minimize the expected cost accumulated before reaching a goal state. We design a novel model-based algorithm EB-SSP that carefully skews the empirical transitions and perturbs the empirical costs with an exploration bonus to induce an optimistic SSP problem whose associated value iteration scheme is guaranteed to converge. We prove that EB-SSP achieves the minimax regret rate $\widetilde{O}(B_{\star} \sqrt{S A K})$, where $K$ is the number of episodes, $S$ is the number of states, $A$ is the number of actions and $B_{\star}$ bounds the expected cumulative cost of the optimal policy from any state, thus closing the gap with the lower bound. Interestingly, EB-SSP obtains this result while being parameter-free, i.e., it does not require any prior knowledge of $B_{\star}$, nor of $T_{\star}$, which bounds the expected time-to-goal of the optimal policy from any state. Furthermore, we illustrate various cases (e.g., positive costs, or general costs when an order-accurate estimate of $T_{\star}$ is available) where the regret only contains a logarithmic dependence on $T_{\star}$, thus yielding the first (nearly) horizon-free regret bound beyond the finite-horizon MDP setting.

Many popular reinforcement learning problems (e.g., navigation in a maze, some Atari games, mountain car) are instances of the episodic setting under its stochastic shortest path (SSP) formulation, where an agent has to achieve a goal state while minimizing the cumulative cost. Despite the popularity of this setting, the exploration-exploitation dilemma has been sparsely studied in general SSP problems, with most of the theoretical literature focusing on different problems (i.e., fixed-horizon and infinite-horizon) or making the restrictive loop-free SSP assumption (i.e., no state can be visited twice during an episode). In this paper, we study the general SSP problem with no assumption on its dynamics (some policies may actually never reach the goal). We introduce UC-SSP, the first no-regret algorithm in this setting, and prove a regret bound scaling as $\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}( D S \sqrt{ A D K})$ after $K$ episodes for any unknown SSP with $S$ states, $A$ actions, positive costs and SSP-diameter $D$, defined as the smallest expected hitting time from any starting state to the goal. We achieve this result by crafting a novel stopping rule, such that UC-SSP may interrupt the current policy if it is taking too long to achieve the goal and switch to alternative policies that are designed to rapidly terminate the episode.

Contextual bandit algorithms are applied in a wide range of domains, from advertising to recommender systems, from clinical trials to education. In many of these domains, malicious agents may have incentives to force a bandit algorithm into a desired behavior For instance, an unscrupulous ad publisher may try to increase their own revenue at the expense of the advertisers; a seller may want to increase the exposure of their products, or thwart a competitor’s advertising campaign. In this paper, we study several attack scenarios and show that a malicious agent can force a linear contextual bandit algorithm to pull any desired arm T − o(T) times over a horizon of T steps, while applying adversarial modifications to either rewards or contexts with a cumulative cost that only grow logarithmically as O(log T). We also investigate the case when a malicious agent is interested in affecting the behavior of the bandit algorithm in a single context (e.g., a specific user). We first provide sufficient conditions for the feasibility of the attack and an efficient algorithm to perform an attack. We empirically validate the proposed approaches on synthetic and real-world datasets.

We study the problem of exploring an unknown environment when no reward function is provided to the agent. Building on the incremental exploration setting introduced by Lim and Auer (2012), we define the objective of learning the set of $\epsilon$-optimal goal-conditioned policies attaining all states that are incrementally reachable within $L$ steps (in expectation) from a reference state $s_0$. In this paper, we introduce a novel model-based approach that interleaves discovering new states from $s_0$ and improving the accuracy of a model estimate that is used to compute goal-conditioned policies. The resulting algorithm, DisCo, achieves a sample complexity scaling as $\widetilde{O}_{\epsilon}(L^5 S_{L+\epsilon} \Gamma_{L+\epsilon} A \epsilon^{-2})$, where $A$ is the number of actions, $S_{L+\epsilon}$ is the number of states that are incrementally reachable from $s_0$ in $L+\epsilon$ steps, and $\Gamma_{L+\epsilon}$ is the branching factor of the dynamics over such states. This improves over the algorithm proposed in (Lim and Auer, 2012) in both $\epsilon$ and $L$ at the cost of an extra $\Gamma_{L+\epsilon}$ factor, which is small in most environments of interest. Furthermore, DisCo is the first algorithm that can return an $\epsilon/c_{\min}$-optimal policy for any cost-sensitive shortest-path problem defined on the $L$-reachable states with minimum cost $c_{\min}$. Finally, we report preliminary empirical results confirming our theoretical findings.

We study the problem of efficient exploration in order to learn an accurate model of an environment, modeled as a Markov decision process (MDP). Efficient exploration in this problem requires the agent to identify the regions in which estimating the model is more difficult and then exploit this knowledge to collect more samples there. In this paper, we formalize this problem, introduce the first algorithm to learn an $\epsilon$-accurate estimate of the dynamics, and provide its sample complexity analysis. While this algorithm enjoys strong guarantees in the large-sample regime, it tends to have a poor performance in early stages of exploration. To address this issue, we propose an algorithm that is based on maximum weighted entropy, a heuristic that stems from common sense and our theoretical analysis. The main idea here is to cover the entire state-action space with the weight proportional to the noise in their transition functions. Using a number of simple domains with heterogeneous noise in their transitions, we show that our heuristic-based algorithm outperforms both our original algorithm and the maximum entropy algorithm in the small sample regime, while achieving similar asymptotic performance as that of the original algorithm.

We introduce the active exploration problem in Markov decision processes (MDPs). Each state of the MDP is characterized by a random value and the learner should gather samples to estimate the mean value of each state as accurately as possible. Similarly to active exploration in multi-armed bandit (MAB), states may have different levels of noise, so that the higher the noise, the more samples are needed. As the noise level is initially unknown, we need to trade off the exploration of the environment to estimate the noise and the exploitation of these estimates to compute a policy maximizing the accuracy of the mean predictions. We introduce a novel learning algorithm to solve this problem showing that active exploration in MDPs may be significantly more difficult than in MAB. We also derive a heuristic procedure to mitigate the negative effect of slowly mixing policies. Finally, we validate our findings on simple numerical simulations.