We study online control of time-varying linear systems with unknown dynamics in the nonstochastic control model. At a high level, we demonstrate that this setting is \emph{qualitatively harder} than that of either unknown time-invariant or known time-varying dynamics, and complement our negative results with algorithmic upper bounds in regimes where sublinear regret is possible. More specifically, we study regret bounds with respect to common classes of policies: Disturbance Action (SLS), Disturbance Response (Youla), and linear feedback policies. While these three classes are essentially equivalent for LTI systems, we demonstrate that these equivalences break down for time-varying systems. We prove a lower bound that no algorithm can obtain sublinear regret with respect to the first two classes unless a certain measure of system variability also scales sublinearly in the horizon. Furthermore, we show that offline planning over the state linear feedback policies is NP-hard, suggesting hardness of the online learning problem. On the positive side, we give an efficient algorithm that attains a sublinear regret bound against the class of Disturbance Response policies up to the aforementioned system variability term. In fact, our algorithm enjoys sublinear \emph{adaptive} regret bounds, which is a strictly stronger metric than standard regret and is more appropriate for time-varying systems. We sketch extensions to Disturbance Action policies and partial observation, and propose an inefficient algorithm for regret against linear state feedback policies.

In many online learning problems the computational bottleneck for gradient-based methods is the projection operation. For this reason, in many problems the most efficient algorithms are based on the Frank-Wolfe method, which replaces projections by linear optimization. In the general case, however, online projection-free methods require more iterations than projection-based methods: the best known regret bound scales as $T^{3/4}$. Despite significant work on various variants of the Frank-Wolfe method, this bound has remained unchanged for a decade. In this paper we give an efficient projection-free algorithm that guarantees $T^{2/3}$ regret for general online convex optimization with smooth cost functions and one linear optimization computation per iteration. As opposed to previous Frank-Wolfe approaches, our algorithm is derived using the Follow-the-Perturbed-Leader method and is analyzed using an online primal-dual framework.

Programming languages allow us to express complex predicates, but existing inference methods are unable to condition probabilistic models on most of them. To support a broader class of predicates, we develop an inference procedure called predicate exchange, which softens predicates. A soft predicate quantifies the extent to which values of model variables are consistent with its hard counterpart. We substitute the likelihood term in the Bayesian posterior with a soft predicate, and develop a variant of replica exchange MCMC to draw posterior samples. We implement predicate exchange as a language agnostic tool which performs a nonstandard execution of a probabilistic program. We demonstrate the approach on sequence models of health and inverse rendering.