Interactive visualizations are widely used in exploratory data analysis, but existing systems provide limited support for confirmatory analysis. We introduce PredictMe, a tool for belief-driven visual analysis, enabling users to draw and test their beliefs against data, as an alternative to data-driven exploration. PredictMe combines belief elicitation with traditional visualization interactions to support mixed analysis styles. In a comparative study, we investigated how these affordances impact participants’ cognition. Results show that PredictMe prompts participants to incorporate their working knowledge more frequently in queries. Participants were more likely to attend to discrepancies between their mental models and the data. However, those same participants were also less likely to engage in interactions associated with exploration, and ultimately inspected fewer visualizations and made fewer discoveries. The results suggest that belief elicitation may moderate exploratory behaviors, instead nudging users to be more deliberate in their analysis. We discuss the implications for visualization design.

Narrative visualization is a popular style of data-driven storytelling. Authors use this medium to engage viewers with complex and sometimes controversial issues. A challenge for authors is to not only deliver new information, but to also overcome people's biases and misconceptions. We study how people adjust their attitudes toward (or away from) a message experienced through a narrative visualization. In a mixed-methods analysis, we investigate whether eliciting participants' prior beliefs, and visualizing those beliefs alongside actual data, can increase narrative persuasiveness. We find that incorporating priors does not significantly affect attitudinal change. However, participants who externalized their beliefs expressed greater surprise at the data. Their comments also indicated a greater likelihood of acquiring new information, despite the minimal change in attitude. Our results also extend prior findings, showing that visualizations are more persuasive than equivalent textual data representations for exposing contentious issues. We discuss the implications and outline future research directions.

Visualization tools facilitate exploratory data analysis, but fall short at supporting hypothesis-based reasoning. We conducted an exploratory study to investigate how visualizations might support a concept-driven analysis style, where users can optionally share their hypotheses and conceptual models in natural language, and receive customized plots depicting the fit of their models to the data. We report on how participants leveraged these unique affordances for visual analysis. We found that a majority of participants articulated meaningful models and predictions, utilizing them as entry points to sensemaking. We contribute an abstract typology representing the types of models participants held and externalized as data expectations. Our findings suggest ways for rearchitecting visual analytics tools to better support hypothesis- and model-based reasoning, in addition to their traditional role in exploratory analysis. We discuss the design implications and reflect on the potential benefits and challenges involved.

Data visualization provides a powerful way for analysts to explore and make data-driven discoveries. However, current visual analytic tools provide only limited support for hypothesis-driven inquiry, as their built-in interactions and workflows are primarily intended for exploratory analysis. Visualization tools notably lack capabilities that would allow users to visually and incrementally test the fit of their conceptual models and provisional hypotheses against the data. This imbalance could bias users to overly rely on exploratory analysis as the principal mode of inquiry, which can be detrimental to discovery. In this paper, we introduce Visual (dis) Confirmation, a tool for conducting confirmatory, hypothesis-driven analyses with visualizations. Users interact by framing hypotheses and data expectations in natural language. The system then selects conceptually relevant data features and automatically generates visualizations to validate the underlying expectations. Distinctively, the resulting visualizations also highlight places where one's mental model disagrees with the data, so as to stimulate reflection. The proposed tool represents a new class of interactive data systems capable of supporting confirmatory visual analysis, and responding more intelligently by spotlighting gaps between one's knowledge and the data. We describe the algorithmic techniques behind this workflow. We also demonstrate the utility of the tool through a case study.