Dependence across multiple financial markets, such as stock and foreign exchange rate markets, is high-dimensional, contains various relationships, and often presents complicated dependence structures and characteristics such as asymmetrical dependence. Modelling such dependence structures is very challenging. Although copula has been demonstrated to be effective in describing dependence between variables in recent studies, building effective dependence structures to address the above complexities significantly challenges existing copula models. In this paper, we propose a new D vine-based model with a bottom up strategy to construct high-dimensional dependence structures. The new modelling outcomes are applied to trade 15 stock market indices and 10 currency rates over 16 years as a case study. Extensive experimental results show that this model and its intrinsic design significantly outperform typical models and industry baselines, as shown by the log-likelihood and Vuong test, and Value at Risk - a widely used industrial benchmark. Our model provides interpretable knowledge and profound insights into the high-dimensional dependence structures across data sources.

Modeling high-dimensional dependence is widely studied to explore deep relations in multiple variables particularly useful for financial risk assessment. Very often, strong restrictions are applied on a dependence structure by existing high-dimensional dependence models. These restrictions disabled the detection of sophisticated structures such as asymmetry, upper and lower tail dependence between multiple variables. The paper proposes a partial regular vine copula model to relax these restrictions. The new model employs partial correlation to construct the regular vine structure, which is algebraically independent. This model is also able to capture the asymmetric characteristics among multiple variables by using two-parametric copula with flexible lower and upper tail dependence. Our method is tested on a cross-country stock market data set to analyse the asymmetry and tail dependence. The high prediction performance is examined by the Value at Risk, which is a commonly adopted evaluation measure in financial market.

High utility sequential pattern mining is an emerging topic in the data mining community. Compared to the classic frequent sequence mining, the utility framework provides more informative and actionable knowledge since the utility of a sequence indicates business value and impact. However, the introduction of "utility" makes the problem fundamentally different from the frequency-based pattern mining framework and brings about dramatic challenges. Although the existing high utility sequential pattern mining algorithms can discover all the patterns satisfying a given minimum utility, it is often difficult for users to set a proper minimum utility. A too small value may produce thousands of patterns, whereas a too big one may lead to no findings. In this paper, we propose a novel framework called top-k high utility sequential pattern mining to tackle this critical problem. Accordingly, an efficient algorithm, Top-k high Utility Sequence (TUS for short) mining, is designed to identify top-k high utility sequential patterns without minimum utility. In addition, three effective features are introduced to handle the efficiency problem, including two strategies for raising the threshold and one pruning for filtering unpromising items. Our experiments are conducted on both synthetic and real datasets. The results show that TUS incorporating the efficiency-enhanced strategies demonstrates impressive performance without missing any high utility sequential patterns.

Financial variables such as asset returns in the massive market contain various hierarchical and horizontal relationships forming complicated dependence structures. Modeling and mining of these structures is challenging due to their own high structural complexities as well as the stylized facts of the market data. This paper introduces a new canonical vine dependence model to identify the asymmetric and non-linear dependence structures of asset returns without any prior independence assumptions. To simplify the model while maintaining its merit, a partial correlation based method is proposed to optimize the canonical vine. Compared with the original canonical vine, the new model can still maintain the most important dependence but many unimportant nodes are removed to simplify the canonical vine structure. Our model is applied to construct and analyze dependence structures of European stocks as case studies. Its performance is evaluated by measuring portfolio of Value at Risk, a widely used risk management measure. In comparison to a very recent canonical vine model and the 'full' model, our experimental results demonstrate that our model has a much better quality of Value at Risk, providing insightful knowledge for investors to control and reduce the aggregation risk of the portfolio.

Mining Negative Sequential Patterns (NSP) is much more challenging than mining Positive Sequential Patterns (PSP) due to the high computational complexity and huge search space required in calculating Negative Sequential Candidates (NSC). Very few approaches are available for mining NSP, which mainly rely on re-scanning databases after identifying PSP. As a result, they are very inefficient. In this paper, we propose an efficient algorithm for mining NSP, called e-NSP, which mines for NSP by only involving the identified PSP, without re-scanning databases. First, negative containment is defined to determine whether or not a data sequence contains a negative sequence. Second, an efficient approach is proposed to convert the negative containment problem to a positive containment problem. The supports of NSC are then calculated based only on the corresponding PSP. Finally, a simple but efficient approach is proposed to generate NSC. With e-NSP, mining NSP does not require additional database scans, and the existing PSP mining algorithms can be integrated into e-NSP to mine for NSP efficiently. e-NSP is compared with two currently available NSP mining algorithms on 14 synthetic and real-life datasets. Intensive experiments show that e-NSP takes as little as 3% of the runtime of the baseline approaches and is applicable for efficient mining of NSP in large datasets.

The similarity between nominal objects is not straightforward, especially in unsupervised learning. This paper proposes coupled similarity metrics for nominal objects, which consider not only intra-coupled similarity within an attribute (i.e., value frequency distribution) but also inter-coupled similarity between attributes (i.e. feature dependency aggregation). Four metrics are designed to calculate the inter-coupled similarity between two categorical values by considering their relationships with other attributes. The theoretical analysis reveals their equivalent accuracy and superior efficiency based on intersection against others, in particular for large-scale data. Substantial experiments on extensive UCI data sets verify the theoretical conclusions. In addition, experiments of clustering based on the derived dissimilarity metrics show a significant performance improvement.