Conditional diffusion and flow models are effective for super-resolving small-scale details in natural images. However, in physical sciences such as weather, three major challenges arise: (i) spatially misaligned input-output distributions (PDEs at different resolutions lead to divergent trajectories), (ii) misaligned and distinct input-output channels (channel synthesis), (iii) several channels with diverse stochasticity scales (multiscale). To address these, we propose to first encode inputs into a latent base distribution that is closer to the target, then apply Flow Matching to generate small-scale physics. The encoder captures deterministic components, while Flow Matching adds stochastic details. To handle uncertainty in the deterministic part, we inject noise via an adaptive noise scaling mechanism, dynamically adjusted by maximum-likelihood estimates of the encoder’s predictions. Experiments on real-world weather data (including super-resolution from 25 km to 2 km scales in Taiwan) and in synthetic Kolmogorov flow datasets show that our proposed Adaptive Flow Matching (AFM) framework outperforms existing methods and produces better-calibrated ensembles.

The field of image generation has made significant progress thanks to the introduction of Diffusion Models, which learn to progressively reverse a given image corruption. Recently, a few studies introduced alternative ways of corrupting images in Diffusion Models, with an emphasis on blurring. However, these studies are purely empirical and it remains unclear what is the optimal procedure for corrupting an image. In this work, we hypothesize that the optimal procedure minimizes the length of the path taken when corrupting an image towards a given final state. We propose the Fisher metric for the path length, measured in the space of probability distributions. We compute the shortest path according to this metric, and we show that it corresponds to a combination of image sharpening, rather than blurring, and noise deblurring. While the corruption was chosen arbitrarily in previous work, our Shortest Path Diffusion (SPD) determines uniquely the entire spatiotemporal structure of the corruption. We show that SPD improves on strong baselines without any hyperparameter tuning, and outperforms all previous Diffusion Models based on image blurring. Furthermore, any small deviation from the shortest path leads to worse performance, suggesting that SPD provides the optimal procedure to corrupt images. Our work sheds new light on observations made in recent works and provides a new approach to improve diffusion models on images and other types of data.

The use of deep neural networks for modelling system dynamics is increasingly popular, but long-term prediction accuracy and out-of-distribution generalization still present challenges. In this study, we address these challenges by considering the parameters of dynamical systems as factors of variation of the data and leverage their ground-truth values to disentangle the representations learned by generative models. Our experimental results in phase-space and observation-space dynamics, demonstrate the effectiveness of latent-space supervision in producing disentangled representations, leading to improved long-term prediction accuracy and out-of-distribution robustness.