Estimating the probability of failure is a critical step in developing safety-critical autonomous systems. Direct estimation methods such as Monte Carlo sampling are often impractical due to the rarity of failures in these systems. Existing importance sampling approaches do not scale to sequential decision-making systems with large state spaces and long horizons. We propose an adaptive importance sampling algorithm to address these limitations. Our method minimizes the forward Kullback-Leibler divergence between a state-dependent proposal distribution and a relaxed form of the optimal importance sampling distribution. Our method uses Markov score ascent methods to estimate this objective. We evaluate our approach on four sequential systems and show that it provides more accurate failure probability estimates than baseline Monte Carlo and adaptive importance sampling techniques. Our implementation is available at https://github.com/sisl/SPAIS.jl.

Designing robust machine learning systems remains an open problem, and there is a need for benchmark problems that cover both environmental changes and evaluation on a downstream task. In this work, we introduce AVOIDDS, a realistic object detection benchmark for the vision-based aircraft detect-and-avoid problem. We provide a labeled dataset consisting of 72,000 photorealistic images of intruder aircraft with various lighting conditions, weather conditions, relative geometries, and geographic locations. We also provide an interface that evaluates trained models on slices of this dataset to identify changes in performance with respect to changing environmental conditions. Finally, we implement a fully-integrated, closed-loop simulator of the vision-based detect-and-avoid problem to evaluate trained models with respect to the downstream collision avoidance task. This benchmark will enable further research in the design of robust machine learning systems for use in safety-critical applications. The AVOIDDS dataset and code are publicly available at https://purl.stanford.edu/hj293cv5980 and https://github.com/sisl/VisionBasedAircraftDAA, respectively.

Modern autonomous systems rely on perception modules to process complex sensor measurements into state estimates. These estimates are then passed to a controller, which uses them to make safety-critical decisions. It is therefore important that we design perception systems to minimize errors that reduce the overall safety of the system. We develop a risk-driven approach to designing perception systems that accounts for the effect of perceptual errors on the performance of the fully-integrated, closed-loop system. We formulate a risk function to quantify the effect of a given perceptual error on overall safety, and show how we can use it to design safer perception systems by including a risk-dependent term in the loss function and generating training data in risk-sensitive regions. We evaluate our techniques on a realistic vision-based aircraft detect and avoid application and show that risk-driven design reduces collision risk by 37% over a baseline system.