Machine learning applied to financial transaction records can predict how likely a small business is to repay a loan. For this purpose we compared a traditional scorecard credit risk model against various machine learning models and found that XGBoost with monotonic constraints outperformed scorecard model by 7% in K-S statistic. To deploy such a machine learning model in production for loan application risk scoring it must comply with lending industry regulations that require lenders to provide understandable and specific reasons for credit decisions. Thus we also developed a loan decision explanation technique based on the ideas of WoE and SHAP. Our research was carried out using a historical dataset of tens of thousands of loans and millions of associated financial transactions. The credit risk scoring model based on XGBoost with monotonic constraints and SHAP explanations described in this paper have been deployed by QuickBooks Capital to assess incoming loan applications since July 2019.

A major part of financial accounting involves tracking and organizing business transactions over and over each month and hence automation of this task is of significant value to the users of accounting software. In this paper we present a large-scale recommendation system that successfully recommends company specific categories for several million small businesses in US, UK, Australia, Canada, India and France and handles billions of financial transactions each year. Our system uses machine learning to combine fragments of information from millions of users in a manner that allows us to accurately recommend user-specific Chart of Accounts categories. Accounts are handled even if named using abbreviations or in a foreign language. Transactions are handled even if a given user has never categorized a transaction like that before. The development of such a system and testing it at scale over billions of transactions is a first in the financial industry.