Uplift modeling is crucial for identifying individuals likely to respond to a treatment in applications like marketing and customer retention, but evaluating these models is challenging due to the inaccessibility of counterfactual outcomes in real-world settings. In this paper, we identify a fundamental limitation in existing evaluation metrics, such as the uplift and Qini curves, which fail to rank individuals with binary negative outcomes accurately. This can lead to biased evaluations, where biased models receive higher curve values than unbiased ones, resulting in suboptimal model selection. To address this, we propose the Principled Uplift Curve (PUC), a novel evaluation metric that assigns equal curve values of individuals with both positive and negative binary outcomes, offering a more balanced and unbiased assessment. We then derive the Principled Uplift Loss (PUL) function from the PUC and integrate it into a new uplift model, the Principled Treatment and Outcome Network (PTONet), to reduce bias during uplift model training. Experiments on both simulated and real-world datasets demonstrate that the PUC provides less biased evaluations, while PTONet outperforms existing methods. The source code is available at: https://github.com/euzmin/PUC.

Accurate prediction of coupon usage is crucial for promoting user consumption through targeted coupon recommendations. However, in real-world coupon recommendations, the coupon allocation process is not solely determined by the model trained with the history interaction data but is also interfered with by marketing tactics desired to fulfill specific commercial goals.This interference creates an imbalance in the interactions, which causes the data to deviate from the user's natural preferences. We refer to this deviation as the matching bias. Such biased interaction data affects the efficacy of the model, and thus it is necessary to employ debiasing techniques to prevent any negative impact. We investigate the mitigation of matching bias in coupon recommendations from a causal-effect perspective. By treating the attributes of users and coupons associated with marketing tactics as confounders, we find the confounders open the backdoor path between user-coupon matching and the conversion, which introduces spurious correlation. To remove the bad effect, we propose a novel training paradigm named Backdoor Adjustment via Group Adaptation (BAGA) for debiased coupon recommendations, which performs intervened training and inference, i.e., separately modeling each user-coupon group pair. However, modeling all possible group pairs greatly increases the computational complexity and cost. To address the efficiency challenge, we further present a simple but effective dual-tower multi-task framework and leverage the Customized Gate Control (CGC) model architecture, which separately models each user and coupon group with a separate expert module. We instantiate BAGA on five representative models: FM, DNN, NCF, MASKNET, and DEEPFM, and conduct comprehensive offline and online experiments to demonstrate the efficacy of our proposed paradigm.

Data from observational studies (OSs) is widely available and readily obtainable yet frequently contains confounding biases. On the other hand, data derived from randomized controlled trials (RCTs) helps to reduce these biases; however, it is expensive to gather, resulting in a tiny size of randomized data. For this reason, effectively fusing observational data and randomized data to better estimate heterogeneous treatment effects (HTEs) has gained increasing attention. However, existing methods for integrating observational data with randomized data must require complete observational data, meaning that both treated subjects and untreated subjects must be included in OSs. This prerequisite confines the applicability of such methods to very specific situations, given that including all subjects, whether treated or untreated, in observational studies is not consistently achievable. In our paper, we propose a resilient approach to Combine Incomplete Observational data and randomized data for HTE estimation, which we abbreviate as CIO. The CIO is capable of estimating HTEs efficiently regardless of the completeness of the observational data, be it full or partial. Concretely, a confounding bias function is first derived using the pseudo-experimental group from OSs, in conjunction with the pseudo-control group from RCTs, via an effect estimation procedure. This function is subsequently utilized as a corrective residual to rectify the observed outcomes of observational data during the HTE estimation by combining the available observational data and the all randomized data. To validate our approach, we have conducted experiments on a synthetic dataset and two semi-synthetic datasets.

The importance of incorporating interpretability into machine learning models has been increasingly emphasized. While previous literature has typically focused on feature level interpretability, such as analyzing which features are important and how they influence the final decision, real-world applications often require domain level interpretability, which relates to a group of features. Domain-level interpretability holds the potential for enhanced informativeness and comprehensibility. Unfortunately, there has been limited research in this direction. In this paper, we address this issue and introduce our proposed method DIDE, which obtains domain-level interpretability from domain-specific latent embeddings. To enhance the effectiveness of the framework, we draw inspiration from the gradient smooth philosophy and propose noisy injection in the embedding space, resulting in smoothed interpretability. We conduct extensive experiments to validate the effectiveness of DIDE, and demonstrate its applications in assisting daily business tasks in Alipay.

Causal effect estimation from networked observational data encounters notable challenges, primarily hidden confounders arising from network structure, or spillover effects that influence unit's outcomes based on neighboring treatment assignments. Existing graph neural network (GNN)-based methods have endeavored to address these challenges, utilizing the GNN's message-passing mechanism to capture hidden confounders or model spillover effects. However, they mainly focus on transductive causal effect learning on a single networked data, limiting their efficacy in inductive settings for real-world applications where networked data often originates from multiple environments influenced by potentially varying time or geographical regions. In light of this, we introduce the principle of invariance to the task of causal effect estimation on networked data, culminating in our Invariant Graph Learning (IGL) framework. Specifically, it first generates multiple networked data to simulate diverse environments from a given observational data. Then it further encourages the model to learn environment-invariant representations for confounders and spillover effects. Such a design enables the model to extrapolate beyond a single observed environment, thereby improving the performance of causal effect estimation in potential new environments. Extensive experiments on two real-world datasets demonstrates the superiority of our approach.

This study considers the estimation of conditional causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding for a balanced panel with treatment imposed at the last time point. To address this, we combine Difference-in-differences (DiD) and tree-based methods and propose a new identification assumption that allows for the violation of the (conditional) parallel trends assumption adopted by most existing DiD methods. Under this new assumption, we prove partial identifiability of the conditional average treatment effect on the treated group (CATT). Our proposed method estimates CATT through a tree-based causal approach, guided by a novel splitting rule that avoids model misspecification and unnecessary auxiliary parameter estimation. The splitting rule measures both the error of fitting observed data and the violation of conditional parallel trends simultaneously. We also develop an ensemble of multiple trees via gradient boosting to further enhance performance. Experimental results on both synthetic and real-world datasets validate the effectiveness of our proposed method.

This paper proposes a novel strategy for estimating the heterogeneous treatment effect called the Fused and Accurate Shrinkage Tree ($\mathrm{FAST}$). Our approach utilizes both trial and observational data to improve the accuracy and robustness of the estimator. Inspired by the concept of shrinkage estimation in statistics, we develop an optimal weighting scheme and a corresponding estimator that balances the unbiased estimator based on the trial data with the potentially biased estimator based on the observational data. Specifically, combined with tree-based techniques, we introduce a new split criterion that utilizes both trial data and observational data to more accurately estimate the treatment effect. Furthermore, we confirm the consistency of our proposed tree-based estimator and demonstrate the effectiveness of our criterion in reducing prediction error through theoretical analysis. The advantageous finite sample performance of the $\mathrm{FAST}$ and its ensemble version over existing methods is demonstrated via simulations and real data analysis.

In marketing recommendations, the campaign organizers will distribute coupons to users to encourage consumption. In general, a series of strategies are employed to interfere with the coupon distribution process, leading to a growing imbalance between user-coupon interactions, resulting in a bias in the estimation of conversion probabilities. We refer to the estimation bias as the matching bias. In this paper, we explore how to alleviate the matching bias from the causal-effect perspective. We regard the historical distributions of users and coupons over each other as confounders and characterize the matching bias as a confounding effect to reveal and eliminate the spurious correlations between user-coupon representations and conversion probabilities. Then we propose a new training paradigm named De-Matching Bias Recommendation (DMBR) to remove the confounding effects during model training via the backdoor adjustment. We instantiate DMBR on two representative models: DNN and MMOE, and conduct extensive offline and online experiments to demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed paradigm.

Data augmentation-based semi-supervised learning (SSL) methods have made great progress in computer vision and natural language processing areas. One of the most important factors is that the semantic structure invariance of these data allows the augmentation procedure (e.g., rotating images or masking words) to thoroughly utilize the enormous amount of unlabeled data. However, the tabular data does not possess an obvious invariant structure, and therefore similar data augmentation methods do not apply to it. To fill this gap, we present a simple yet efficient data augmentation method particular designed for tabular data and apply it to the SSL algorithm: SDAT (Semi-supervised learning with Data Augmentation for Tabular data). We adopt a multi-task learning framework that consists of two components: the data augmentation procedure and the consistency training procedure. The data augmentation procedure which perturbs in latent space employs a variational auto-encoder (VAE) to generate the reconstructed samples as augmented samples. The consistency training procedure constrains the predictions to be invariant between the augmented samples and the corresponding original samples. By sharing a representation network (encoder), we jointly train the two components to improve effectiveness and efficiency. Extensive experimental studies validate the effectiveness of the proposed method on the tabular datasets.

Unmeasured confounding poses a significant threat to the validity of causal inference. Despite that various ad hoc methods are developed to remove confounding effects, they are subject to certain fairly strong assumptions. In this work, we consider the estimation of conditional causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding using observational data and historical controls. Under an interpretable transportability condition, we prove the partial identifiability of conditional average treatment effect on the treated group (CATT). For tree-based models, a new notion, \emph{confounding entropy}, is proposed to measure the discrepancy introduced by unobserved confounders between the conditional outcome distribution of the treated and control groups. The confounding entropy generalizes conventional confounding bias, and can be estimated effectively using historical controls. We develop a new method, debiased causal tree, whose splitting rule is to minimize the empirical risk regularized by the confounding entropy. Notably, our method integrates current observational data (for empirical risk) and their historical controls (for confounding entropy) harmoniously. We highlight that, debiased causal tree can not only estimate CATT well in the presence of unmeasured confounding, but also is a robust estimator of conditional average treatment effect (CATE) against the imbalance of the treated and control populations when all confounders are observed. An extension of combining multiple debiased causal trees to further reduce biases by gradient boosting is considered. The computational feasibility and statistical power of our method are evidenced by simulations and a study of a credit card balance dataset.

In recent years, machine learning models have achieved magnificent success in many industrial applications, but most of them are black boxes. It is crucial to understand why such predictions are made in many critical areas such as medicine, financial markets, and auto driving. In this paper, we propose Coco, a novel interpretation method which can interpret any binary classifier by assigning each feature an importance value for a particular prediction. We first adopt MixUp method to generate reasonable perturbations, then apply these perturbations with constraints to obtain counterfactual instances and finally compute a comprehensive metric on these instances to estimate the importance of each feature. To demonstrate the effectiveness of Coco, we conduct extensive experiments on several datasets. The results show our method achieves better performance in identifying the most important features compared with the state-of-the-art interpretation methods, including Shap and Lime.

We create an intention mining system, named AntProphet, for Alipay's intelligent customer service bot, to alleviate the burden of customer service. Whenever users have any questions, AntProphet is the first stop to help users to answer their questions. Our system gathers users' profile and their historical behavioral trajectories, together with contextual information to predict users' intention, i.e., the potential questions that users want to resolve. AntProphet takes care of more than 90% of the customer service demands in the Alipay APP and resolves most of the users' problems on the spot, thus significantly reduces the burden of manpower. With the help of it, the overall satisfaction rate of our customer service bot exceeds 85%.