Water distribution systems (WDSs) are an important part of critical infrastructure becoming increasingly significant in the face of climate change and urban population growth. We propose a robust and scalable surrogate deep learning (DL) model to enable efficient planning, expansion, and rehabilitation of WDSs. Our approach incorporates an improved graph neural network architecture, an adapted physics-informed algorithm, an innovative training scheme, and a physics-preserving data normalization method. Evaluation results on a number of WDSs demonstrate that our model outperforms the current state-of-the-art DL model. Moreover, our method allows us to scale the model to bigger and more realistic WDSs. Furthermore, our approach makes the model more robust to out-of-distribution input features (demands, pipe diameters). Hence, our proposed method constitutes a significant step towards bridging the simulation-to-real gap in the use of artificial intelligence for WDSs.

Machine learning based decision making systems in safety critical areas place high demands on the accuracy and generalization ability of the underlying model. A common strategy to deal with uncertainties and possible mistakes is offered by learning with reject option, i.e. a model can refrain from prediction in ambiguous cases and leave the decision to a human expert. Yet, as for the models themselves, human decision-making is hampered by the fact that reject options are often implemented as black-box rules: Experts cannot readily understand the reasons for rejection. In this work, we propose a model-agnostic framework that enriches classification with reject option by explanation mechanisms. More specifically, we combine conformal prediction as a popular mathematically based technology of certainty estimation with local surrogates derived for the region of interest. This allows us to provide local explanations in terms of example-based explanation methods, including counterfactual, semi-factual, and factual methods. We demonstrate the performance of this technology through a series of benchmarks using 6 different data sets; the associated code is open source.1

Abstract Many of today’s decision making systems deployed in the real world are not static—they are changing and adapting over time, a phenomenon known as model adaptation takes place. Because of their wide reaching influence and potentially serious consequences, the need for transparency and interpretability of AI-based decision making systems is widely accepted and thus have been worked on extensively—e.g. a very prominent class of explanations are contrasting explanations which try to mimic human explanations. However, usually, explanation methods assume a static system that has to be explained. Explaining non-static systems is still an open research question, which poses the challenge how to explain model differences, adaptations and changes. In this contribution, we propose and (empirically) evaluate a general framework for explaining model adaptations and differences by contrasting explanations. We also propose a method for automatically finding regions in data space that are affected by a given model adaptation—i.e. regions where the internal reasoning of the other (e.g. adapted) model changed—and thus should be explained. Finally, we also propose a regularization for model adaptations to ensure that the internal reasoning of the adapted model does not change in an unwanted way.

The application of machine learning based decision making systems in safety critical areas requires reliable high certainty predictions.Reject options are a common way of ensuring a sufficiently high certainty of predictions.While being able to reject uncertain samples is important, it is also of importance to be able to explain why a particular sample was rejected.However, explaining reject options is still an open problem.We propose a model-agnostic method for locally explaining reject options by means of interpretable models and counterfactual explanations.

Explanation methods are considered the most prominent way of achieving the ubiquitous requirement of transparency.Ideally, in order to be useful, explanations should be "easy to understand" -i.e.being of low complexity.In this work, we empirically study explanations generated by Zorro, an explanation method for Graph Neural Networks.In the context of a standard reinforcement learning scenario, we propose a methodology to improve the quality of generated explanations in case of sparse observations.

The notion of concept drift refers to the phenomenon that the distribution which is underlying the observed data changes over time. As a consequence machine learning models may become inaccurate and need adjustment. While there do exist methods to detect concept drift, to find change points in data streams, or to adjust models in the presence of observed drift, the problem of localizing drift, i.e. identifying it in data space, is yet widely unsolved - in particular from a formal perspective. This problem however is of importance, since it enables an inspection of the most prominent characteristics, e.g. features, where drift manifests itself and can therefore be used to make informed decisions, e.g. efficient updates of the training set of online learning algorithms, and perform precise adjustments of the learning model. In this paper we present a general theoretical framework that reduces drift localization to a supervised machine learning problem. We construct a new method for drift localization thereon and demonstrate the usefulness of our theory and the performance of our algorithm by comparing it to other methods from the literature.

With the increasing deployment of machine learning systems in practice, transparency and explainability have become serious issues. Contrastive explanations are considered to be useful and intuitive, in particular when it comes to explaining decisions to lay people, since they mimic the way in which humans explain. Yet, so far, comparably little research has addressed computationally feasible technologies, which allow guarantees on uniqueness and optimality of the explanation and which enable an easy incorporation of additional constraints. Here, we will focus on specific types of models rather than black-box technologies. We study the relation of contrastive and counterfactual explanations and propose mathematical formalizations as well as a 2-phase algorithm for efficiently computing (plausible) pertinent positives of many standard machine learning models.

The notion of concept drift refers to the phenomenon that the distribution, which is underlying the observed data, changes over time; as a consequence machine learning models may become inaccurate and need adjustment. Many online learning schemes include drift detection to actively detect and react to observed changes. Yet, reliable drift detection constitutes a challenging problem in particular in the context of high dimensional data, varying drift characteristics, and the absence of a parametric model such as a classification scheme which reflects the drift. In this paper we present a novel concept drift detection method, Dynamic Adapting Window Independence Drift Detection (DAWIDD), which aims for non-parametric drift detection of diverse drift characteristics. For this purpose, we establish a mathematical equivalence of the presence of drift to the dependency of specific random variables in an according drift process. This allows us to rely on independence tests rather than parametric models or the classification loss, resulting in a fairly robust scheme to universally detect different types of drift, as it is also confirmed in experiments.

Convolutional neural networks have been used to achieve a string of successes during recent years, but their lack of interpretability remains a serious issue. Adversarial examples are designed to deliberately fool neural networks into making any desired incorrect classification, potentially with very high certainty. Several defensive approaches increase robustness against adversarial attacks, demanding attacks of greater magnitude, which lead to visible artifacts. By considering human visual perception, we compose a technique that allows to hide such adversarial attacks in regions of high complexity, such that they are imperceptible even to an astute observer. We carry out a user study on classifying adversarially modified images to validate the perceptual quality of our approach and find significant evidence for its concealment with regards to human visual perception.