Precipitation nowcasting, a critical task for weather-sensitive applications, is highly challenging owing to the chaotic nature of atmospheric dynamics. Despite recent progress in deep learning, existing methods are limited in their capacity to model turbulent motions, one of the key drivers of precipitation evolution. Thus, we propose MoCast, the first work that incorporates turbulence knowledge to decompose turbulent motions into solvable components for precipitation nowcasting. Specifically, inspired by the continuity equation, MoCast introduces two core innovations: (1) a physics-guided motion module that learns turbulent motions from physically interpretable mean and fluctuating components based on Reynolds, Helmholtz, and Wavelet decomposition techniques, and (2) a motion-guided source-sink module that learns source-sink features considering the multi-scale impact from motions based on a mixture-of-experts architecture. Extensive experiments on three real-world datasets demonstrate that MoCast achieves the state-of-the-art performance. MoCast and its diffusion-based variant MoCast+ reduce CSI error by an average of 4.9% and 4.5% compared to the best deterministic and probabilistic baselines, respectively.

Accurate air quality forecasting is essential for public health and environmental sustainability, but remains challenging due to the complex pollutant dynamics. Existing deep learning methods often model pollutant dynamics as an instantaneous process, overlooking the intrinsic delays in pollutant propagation. Thus, we propose AirDDE, the first neural delay differential equation framework in this task that integrates delay modeling into a continuous-time pollutant evolution under physical guidance. Specifically, two novel components are introduced: (1) a memory-augmented attention module that retrieves globally and locally historical features, which can adaptively capture delay effects modulated by multifactor data; and (2) a physics-guided delay evolving function, grounded in the diffusion-advection equation, that models diffusion, delayed advection, and source/sink terms, which can capture delay-aware pollutant accumulation patterns with physical plausibility. Extensive experiments on three real-world datasets demonstrate that AirDDE achieves the state-of-the-art forecasting performance with an average MAE reduction of 8.79% over the best baselines.

In multivariate time series (MTS) forecasting, many deep learning based methods have been proposed for modeling dependencies at multiple spatial (inter-variate) or temporal (intra-variate) scales. However, existing methods may fail to model dependencies across multiple spatial-temporal scales (ST-scales, i.e., scales that jointly consider spatial and temporal scopes). In this work, we propose ST-Hyper to model the high-order dependencies across multiple ST-scales through adaptive hypergraph modeling. Specifically, we introduce a Spatial-Temporal Pyramid Modeling (STPM) module to extract features at multiple ST-scales. Furthermore, we introduce an Adaptive Hypergraph Modeling (AHM) module that learns a sparse hypergraph to capture robust high-order dependencies among features. In addition, we interact with these features through tri-phase hypergraph propagation, which can comprehensively capture multi-scale spatial-temporal dynamics. Experimental results on six real-world MTS datasets demonstrate that ST-Hyper achieves the state-of-the-art performance, outperforming the best baselines with an average MAE reduction of 3.8% and 6.8% for long-term and short-term forecasting, respectively. Code is available at https://anonymous.4open.science/ST-Hyper-83E7.

Multi-variate time series (MTS) forecasting is crucial for various applications. Existing methods have shown promising results owing to their strong ability to capture intra- and inter-variate dependencies. However, these methods often overlook lead-lag dependencies at multiple grouping scales, failing to capture hierarchical lead-lag effects in complex systems. To this end, we propose MillGNN, a novel graph neural network-based method that learns multiple grouping scale lead-lag dependencies for MTS forecasting, which can comprehensively capture lead-lag effects considering variate-wise and group-wise dynamics and decays. Specifically, MillGNN introduces two key innovations: (1) a scale-specific lead-lag graph learning module that integrates cross-correlation coefficients and dynamic decaying features derived from real-time inputs and time lags to learn lead-lag dependencies for each scale, which can model evolving lead-lag dependencies with statistical interpretability and data-driven flexibility; (2) a hierarchical lead-lag message passing module that passes lead-lag messages at multiple grouping scales in a structured way to simultaneously propagate intra- and inter-scale lead-lag effects, which can capture multi-scale lead-lag effects with a balance of comprehensiveness and efficiency. Experimental results on 11 datasets demonstrate the superiority of MillGNN for long-term and short-term MTS forecasting, compared with 16 state-of-the-art methods.

Multivariate time series (MTS) forecasting has attracted much attention in many intelligent applications. It is not a trivial task, as we need to consider both intra-variable dependencies and inter-variable dependencies. However, existing works are designed for specific scenarios and require much domain knowledge and expert efforts, which is difficult to transfer between different scenarios. In this article, we propose a scale-aware neural architecture search framework for MTS forecasting (SNAS4MTF). A multi-scale decomposition module transforms raw time series into multi-scale sub-series, which can preserve multi-scale temporal patterns. An adaptive graph learning module infers the different inter-variable dependencies under different time scales without any prior knowledge. For MTS forecasting, a search space is designed to capture both intra-variable dependencies and inter-variable dependencies at each time scale. The multi-scale decomposition, adaptive graph learning, and neural architecture search modules are jointly learned in an end-to-end framework. Extensive experiments on two real-world datasets demonstrate that SNAS4MTF achieves a promising performance compared with the state-of-the-art methods.

Although transformer-based methods have achieved great success in multi-scale temporal pattern interaction modeling, two key challenges limit their further development: (1) Individual time points contain less semantic information, and leveraging attention to model pair-wise interactions may cause the information utilization bottleneck. (2) Multiple inherent temporal variations (e.g., rising, falling, and fluctuating) entangled in temporal patterns. To this end, we propose Adaptive Multi-Scale Hypergraph Transformer (Ada-MSHyper) for time series forecasting. Specifically, an adaptive hypergraph learning module is designed to provide foundations for modeling group-wise interactions, then a multi-scale interaction module is introduced to promote more comprehensive pattern interactions at different scales. In addition, a node and hyperedge constraint mechanism is introduced to cluster nodes with similar semantic information and differentiate the temporal variations within each scales. Extensive experiments on 11 real-world datasets demonstrate that Ada-MSHyper achieves state-of-the-art performance, reducing prediction errors by an average of 4.56%, 10.38%, and 4.97% in MSE for long-range, short-range, and ultra-long-range time series forecasting, respectively. Code is available at https://github.com/shangzongjiang/Ada-MSHyper.

Multivariate time series (MTS) forecasting plays an important role in the automation and optimization of intelligent applications. It is a challenging task, as we need to consider both complex intra-variable dependencies and inter-variable dependencies. Existing works only learn temporal patterns with the help of single inter-variable dependencies. However, there are multi-scale temporal patterns in many real-world MTS. Single inter-variable dependencies make the model prefer to learn one type of prominent and shared temporal patterns. In this article, we propose a multi-scale adaptive graph neural network (MAGNN) to address the above issue. MAGNN exploits a multi-scale pyramid network to preserve the underlying temporal dependencies at different time scales. Since the inter-variable dependencies may be different under distinct time scales, an adaptive graph learning module is designed to infer the scale-specific inter-variable dependencies without pre-defined priors. Given the multi-scale feature representations and scale-specific inter-variable dependencies, a multi-scale temporal graph neural network is introduced to jointly model intra-variable dependencies and inter-variable dependencies. After that, we develop a scale-wise fusion module to effectively promote the collaboration across different time scales, and automatically capture the importance of contributed temporal patterns. Experiments on six real-world datasets demonstrate that MAGNN outperforms the state-of-the-art methods across various settings.

A nuclear cataract is an age-related chronic and priority ophthalmic disease in which a clouding of the lens in the human eye affects vision. Automatic segmentation of nuclear region based on slit-lamp photographs is a basic step for computer-aided diagnosis such as nuclear cataract grading. However, slit-lamp photographs collected from a clinic scenario often have complex background containing the eyelids, sclera and cornea with spectral highlights. The existing efforts using traditional image processing that have unsatisfactory results, and the deep learning method using standard Faster R-CNN tends to obtain a bigger nuclear contour. In this paper, we propose a coarse-to-fine deep learning solution to localize nuclear regions by cascading the Faster R-CNN in a two-stage framework. First, a nuclear ROI (region of interest) predictor is pre-trained to localize a rough position and remove complex backgrounds. Then, a fine nuclear locator is applied to predict a more compact nuclear bounding box. Finally, an ellipse-like nuclear contour is fitted based on its bounding box. Evaluated on a clinical dataset of 884 slit-lamp photographs, the proposed method outperforms the state-of-the-art, improving the overlapping rate (IoU) by 0.33% from 67.98% to 68.31%, and increasing the success rate by 2.55% from 85.71% to 88.26%.