Diffusion-based generative models provide a powerful framework for learning to sample from a complex target distribution. The remarkable empirical success of these models applied to high-dimensional signals, including images and video, stands in stark contrast to classical results highlighting the curse of dimensionality for distribution recovery. In this work, we take a step towards understanding this gap through a careful analysis of learning diffusion models over the Barron space of single hidden layer neural networks. In particular, we show that these shallow models provably adapt to simple forms of low-dimensional structure, such as an unknown linear subspace or hidden independence, thereby avoiding the curse of dimensionality. We combine our results with recent analyses of sampling with diffusions to provide an end-to-end sample complexity bound for learning to sample from structured distributions. Importantly, our results do not require specialized architectures tailored to particular latent structures, and instead rely on the low-index structure of the Barron space to adapt to the underlying distribution.

A driving force behind the diverse applicability of modern machine learning is the ability to extract meaningful features across many sources. However, many practical domains involve data that are non-identically distributed across sources, and possibly statistically dependent within its source, violating vital assumptions in existing theoretical studies of representation learning. Toward addressing these issues, we establish statistical guarantees for learning general *nonlinear* representations from multiple data sources that admit different input distributions and possibly dependent data. Specifically, we study the sample-complexity of learning $T+1$ functions $f_\star^{(t)} \circ g_\star$ from a function class $\mathcal{F} \times \mathcal{G}$, where $f_\star^{(t)}$ are task specific linear functions and $g_\star$ is a shared non-linear representation. An approximate representation $\hat g$ is estimated using $N$ samples from each of $T$ source tasks, and a fine-tuning function $\hat f^{(0)}$ is fit using $N'$ samples from a target task passed through $\hat g$. Our results show that the excess risk of the estimate $\hat f^{(0)} \circ \hat g$ on the target task decays as $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}\Big(\frac{\mathrm{C}(\mathcal{G})}{N T} + \frac{\text{dim}(\mathcal{F})}{N'}\Big)$, where $\mathrm{C}(\mathcal{G})$ denotes the complexity of $\mathcal{G}$. Notably, our rates match that of the iid setting, while requiring fewer samples per task than prior analysis and admitting *no dependence on the mixing time*. We support our analysis with numerical experiments performing imitation learning over non-linear dynamical systems.

In this work, we study statistical learning with dependent data and square loss in a hypothesis class with tail decay in Orlicz space: $\mathscr{F}\subset L_{\Psi_p}$. Our inquiry is motivated by the search for a sharp noise interaction term, or variance proxy, in learning with dependent (e.g. $\beta$-mixing) data. Typical non-asymptotic results exhibit variance proxies that are deflated multiplicatively in the mixing time of the underlying covariates process. We show that whenever the topologies of $L^2$ and $\Psi_p$ are comparable on our hypothesis class $\mathscr{F}$, the empirical risk minimizer achieves a rate that only depends on the complexity of the class and second order statistics in its leading term. We refer to this as a near mixing-free rate, since direct dependence on mixing is relegated to an additive higher order term. Our approach, reliant on mixed tail generic chaining, allows us to obtain sharp, instance-optimal rates. Examples that satisfy our framework include for instance sub-Gaussian linear regression and bounded smoothness classes.

We derive upper bounds for random design linear regression with dependent ($\beta$-mixing) data absent any realizability assumptions. In contrast to the strictly realizable martingale noise regime, no sharp \emph{instance-optimal} non-asymptotics are available in the literature. Up to constant factors, our analysis correctly recovers the variance term predicted by the Central Limit Theorem---the noise level of the problem---and thus exhibits graceful degradation as we introduce misspecification. Past a burn-in, our result is sharp in the moderate deviations regime, and in particular does not inflate the leading order term by mixing time factors.

In this paper, we study the statistical difficulty of learning to control linear systems. We focus on two standard benchmarks, the sample complexity of stabilization, and the regret of the online learning of the Linear Quadratic Regulator (LQR). Prior results state that the statistical difficulty for both benchmarks scales polynomially with the system state dimension up to system-theoretic quantities. However, this does not reveal the whole picture. By utilizing minimax lower bounds for both benchmarks, we prove that there exist non-trivial classes of systems for which learning complexity scales dramatically, i.e. exponentially, with the system dimension. This situation arises in the case of underactuated systems, i.e. systems with fewer inputs than states. Such systems are structurally difficult to control and their system theoretic quantities can scale exponentially with the system dimension dominating learning complexity. Under some additional structural assumptions (bounding systems away from uncontrollability), we provide qualitatively matching upper bounds. We prove that learning complexity can be at most exponential with the controllability index of the system, that is the degree of underactuation.

Given a single trajectory of a dynamical system, we analyze the performance of the nonparametric least squares estimator (LSE). More precisely, we give nonasymptotic expected $l^2$-distance bounds between the LSE and the true regression function, where expectation is evaluated on a fresh, counterfactual, trajectory. We leverage recently developed information-theoretic methods to establish the optimality of the LSE for nonparametric hypotheses classes in terms of supremum norm metric entropy and a subgaussian parameter. Next, we relate this subgaussian parameter to the stability of the underlying process using notions from dynamical systems theory. When combined, these developments lead to rate-optimal error bounds that scale as $T^{-1/(2+q)}$ for suitably stable processes and hypothesis classes with metric entropy growth of order $\delta^{-q}$. Here, $T$ is the length of the observed trajectory, $\delta \in \mathbb{R}_+$ is the packing granularity and $q\in (0,2)$ is a complexity term. Finally, we specialize our results to a number of scenarios of practical interest, such as Lipschitz dynamics, generalized linear models, and dynamics described by functions in certain classes of Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Spaces (RKHS).

We study square loss in a realizable time-series framework with martingale difference noise. Our main result is a fast rate excess risk bound which shows that whenever a trajectory hypercontractivity condition holds, the risk of the least-squares estimator on dependent data matches the iid rate order-wise after a burn-in time. In comparison, many existing results in learning from dependent data have rates where the effective sample size is deflated by a factor of the mixing-time of the underlying process, even after the burn-in time. Furthermore, our results allow the covariate process to exhibit long range correlations which are substantially weaker than geometric ergodicity. We call this phenomenon learning with little mixing, and present several examples for when it occurs: bounded function classes for which the $L^2$ and $L^{2+\epsilon}$ norms are equivalent, finite state irreducible and aperiodic Markov chains, various parametric models, and a broad family of infinite dimensional $\ell^2(\mathbb{N})$ ellipsoids. By instantiating our main result to system identification of nonlinear dynamics with generalized linear model transitions, we obtain a nearly minimax optimal excess risk bound after only a polynomial burn-in time.