In supervised learning with distributional inputs in the two-stage sampling setup, relevant to applications like learning-based medical screening or causal learning, the inputs (which are probability distributions) are not accessible in the learning phase, but only samples thereof. This problem is particularly amenable to kernel-based learning methods, where the distributions or samples are first embedded into a Hilbert space, often using kernel mean embeddings (KMEs), and then a standard kernel method like Support Vector Machines (SVMs) is applied, using a kernel defined on the embedding Hilbert space. In this work, we contribute to the theoretical analysis of this latter approach, with a particular focus on classification with distributional inputs using SVMs. We establish a new oracle inequality and derive consistency and learning rate results. Furthermore, for SVMs using the hinge loss and Gaussian kernels, we formulate a novel variant of an established noise assumption from the binary classification literature, under which we can establish learning rates. Finally, some of our technical tools like a new feature space for Gaussian kernels on Hilbert spaces are of independent interest.

We propose a framework for hypothesis testing on conditional probability distributions, which we then use to construct *statistical tests of functionals of conditional distributions*. These tests identify the inputs where the functionals differ with high probability, and include tests of conditional moments or two-sample tests. Our key idea is to transform confidence bounds of a learning method into a test of conditional expectations. We instantiate this principle for kernel ridge regression (KRR) with subgaussian noise. An intermediate data embedding then enables more general tests — including *conditional two-sample tests* — via kernel mean embeddings of distributions. To have guarantees in this setting, we generalize existing pointwise-in-time or time-uniform confidence bounds for KRR to previously-inaccessible yet essential cases such as infinite-dimensional outputs with non-trace-class kernels. These bounds also circumvent the need for independent data, allowing for instance online sampling. To make our tests readily applicable in practice, we introduce bootstrapping schemes leveraging the parametric form of testing thresholds identified in theory to avoid tuning inaccessible parameters. We illustrate the tests on examples, including one in process monitoring and comparison of dynamical systems. Overall, our results establish a comprehensive foundation for conditional testing on functionals, from theoretical guarantees to an algorithmic implementation, and advance the state of the art on confidence bounds for vector-valued least squares estimation.

Kernel-based statistical learning on distributional inputs appears in many relevant applications, from medical diagnostics to causal inference, and poses intriguing theoretical questions. While this learning scenario received considerable attention from the machine learning community recently, many gaps in the theory remain. In particular, most works consider only the distributional regression setting, and focus on the regularized least-squares algorithm for this problem. In this work, we start to fill these gaps. We prove two oracle inequalities for kernel machines in general distributional learning scenarios, as well as a generalization result based on algorithmic stability. Our main results are formulated in great generality, utilizing general Hilbertian embeddings, which makes them applicable to a wide array of approaches to distributional learning. Additionally, we specialize our results to the cases of kernel mean embeddings and of the recently introduced Hilbertian embeddings based on sliced Wasserstein distances, providing concrete instances of the general setup. Our results considerably enlarge the scope of theoretically grounded distributional learning, and provide many interesting avenues for future work.

In many applications of machine learning, a large number of variables are considered. Motivated by machine learning of interacting particle systems, we consider the situation when the number of input variables goes to infinity. First, we continue the recent investigation of the mean field limit of kernels and their reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces, completing the existing theory. Next, we provide results relevant for approximation with such kernels in the mean field limit, including a representer theorem. Finally, we use these kernels in the context of statistical learning in the mean field limit, focusing on Support Vector Machines. In particular, we show mean field convergence of empirical and infinite-sample solutions as well as the convergence of the corresponding risks. On the one hand, our results establish rigorous mean field limits in the context of kernel methods, providing new theoretical tools and insights for large-scale problems. On the other hand, our setting corresponds to a new form of limit of learning problems, which seems to have not been investigated yet in the statistical learning theory literature.

Gaussian Process regression is a popular nonparametric regression method based on Bayesian principles that provides uncertainty estimates for its predictions. However, these estimates are of a Bayesian nature, whereas for some important applications, like learning-based control with safety guarantees, frequentist uncertainty bounds are required. Although such rigorous bounds are available for Gaussian Processes, they are too conservative to be useful in applications. This often leads practitioners to replacing these bounds by heuristics, thus breaking all theoretical guarantees. To address this problem, we introduce new uncertainty bounds that are rigorous, yet practically useful at the same time. In particular, the bounds can be explicitly evaluated and are much less conservative than state of the art results. Furthermore, we show that certain model misspecifications lead to only graceful degradation. We demonstrate these advantages and the usefulness of our results for learning-based control with numerical examples.