Recent advances in artificial intelligence have been fueled by the development of foundation models such as BERT, GPT, T5, and Vision Transformers. These models are first pretrained on vast and diverse datasets and then adapted to specific downstream tasks, often with significantly less data. However, the mechanisms behind the success of this ubiquitous pretrain-then-adapt paradigm remain underexplored, particularly the characteristics of pretraining checkpoints that enhance downstream adaptation. We introduce a Bayesian model selection criterion, called the downstream free energy, which quantifies a checkpoint’s adaptability by measuring the concentration of nearby favorable parameters for a downstream task. We demonstrate that this Bayesian model selection criterion can be effectively implemented without access to the downstream data or prior knowledge of the downstream task. Furthermore, we provide empirical evidence that the criterion reliably correlates with improved fine-tuning performance, offering a principled approach to predicting model adaptability.

Many of the recent advances in computer vision and language models can be attributed to the success of transfer learning via the pre-training of large foundation models. However, a theoretical framework which explains this empirical success is incomplete and remains an active area of research. Flatness of the loss surface and neural collapse have recently emerged as useful pre-training metrics which shed light on the implicit biases underlying pre-training. In this paper, we explore the geometric complexity of a model's learned representations as a fundamental mechanism that relates these two concepts. We show through experiments and theory that mechanisms which affect the geometric complexity of the pre-trained network also influence the neural collapse. Furthermore, we show how this effect of the geometric complexity generalizes to the neural collapse of new classes as well, thus encouraging better performance on downstream tasks, particularly in the few-shot setting.

In many contexts, simpler models are preferable to more complex models and the control of this model complexity is the goal for many methods in machine learning such as regularization, hyperparameter tuning and architecture design. In deep learning, it has been difficult to understand the underlying mechanisms of complexity control, since many traditional measures are not naturally suitable for deep neural networks. Here we develop the notion of geometric complexity, which is a measure of the variability of the model function, computed using a discrete Dirichlet energy. Using a combination of theoretical arguments and empirical results, we show that many common training heuristics such as parameter norm regularization, spectral norm regularization, flatness regularization, implicit gradient regularization, noise regularization and the choice of parameter initialization all act to control geometric complexity, providing a unifying framework in which to characterize the behavior of deep learning models.

We introduce COT-GAN, an adversarial algorithm to train implicit generative models optimized for producing sequential data. The loss function of this algorithm is formulated using ideas from Causal Optimal Transport (COT), which combines classic optimal transport methods with an additional temporal causality constraint. Remarkably, we find that this causality condition provides a natural framework to parameterize the cost function that is learned by the discriminator as a robust (worst-case) distance, and an ideal mechanism for learning time dependent data distributions. Following Genevay et al. (2018), we also include an entropic penalization term which allows for the use of the Sinkhorn algorithm when computing the optimal transport cost. Our experiments show effectiveness and stability of COT-GAN when generating both low- and high-dimensional time-series data. The success of the algorithm also relies on a new, improved version of the Sinkhorn divergence which demonstrates less bias in learning.