In machine learning, uncertainty quantification helps assess the reliability of model predictions, which is important in high-stakes scenarios. Traditional approaches often emphasize predictive accuracy, but there is a growing focus on incorporating uncertainty measures. This paper addresses localized uncertainty quantification in random forests. While current methods often rely on quantile regression or Monte Carlo techniques, we propose a new approach using naturally occurring test sets and similarity measures (proximities) typically viewed as byproducts of random forests. Specifically, we form localized distributions of OOB errors around nearby points, defined using the proximities, to create prediction intervals for regression and trust scores for classification. By varying the number of nearby points, our intervals can be adjusted to achieve the desired coverage while retaining the flexibility that reflects the certainty of individual predictions. For classification, excluding points identified as unclassifiable by our method generally enhances the accuracy of the model and provides higher accuracy-rejection AUC scores than competing methods.

Missing data is a common problem in time series data. Most methods for imputation ignore label information pertaining to the time series even if that information exists. In this paper, we provide a framework for missing data imputation in the context of time series classification, where each time series is associated with a categorical label. We define a means of imputing missing values conditional upon labels, the method being guided by powerful, existing supervised models designed for high accuracy in this task. From each model, we extract a tree-based proximity measure from which imputation can be applied. We show that imputation using this method generally provides richer information leading to higher classification accuracies, despite the imputed values differing from the true values.

Extensive research has produced robust methods for unsupervised data visualization. Yet supervised visualization—where expert labels guide representations—remains underexplored, as most supervised approaches prioritize classification over visualization. Recently, RF-PHATE, a diffusion-based manifold learning method leveraging random forests and information geometry, marked significant progress in supervised visualization. However, its lack of an explicit mapping function limits scalability and its application to unseen data, posing challenges for large datasets and label-scarce scenarios. To overcome these limitations, we introduce Random Forest Autoencoders (RF-AE), a neural network-based framework for out-of-sample kernel extension that combines the flexibility of autoencoders with the supervised learning strengths of random forests and the geometry captured by RF-PHATE. RF-AE enables efficient out-of-sample supervised visualization and outperforms existing methods, including RF-PHATE's standard kernel extension, in both accuracy and interpretability. Additionally, RF-AE is modality-agnostic, demonstrates strong robustness to hyperparameters, supports both classification and regression, and natively accommodates missing feature values. Our code is available at https://github.com/JakeSRhodesLab/RF-AE.

Manifold alignment is a type of data fusion technique that creates a shared low-dimensional representation of data collected from multiple domains, enabling cross-domain learning and improved performance in downstream tasks. This paper presents an approach to manifold alignment using random forests as a foundation for semi-supervised alignment algorithms, leveraging the model’s inherent strengths. We focus on enhancing two recently developed alignment graph-based by integrating class labels through geometry-preserving proximities derived from random forests. These proximities serve as a supervised initialization for constructing cross-domain relationships that maintain local neighborhood structures, thereby facilitating alignment. Our approach addresses a common limitation in manifold alignment, where existing methods often fail to generate embeddings that capture sufficient information for downstream classification. By contrast, we find that alignment models that use random forest proximities or class-label information achieve improved accuracy on downstream classification tasks, outperforming single-domain baselines. Experiments across multiple datasets show that our method typically enhances cross-domain feature integration and predictive performance, suggesting that random forest proximities offer a practical solution for tasks requiring multimodal data alignment.

Data from individual observations can originate from various sources or modalities but are often intrinsically linked. Multimodal data integration can enrich information content compared to single-source data. Manifold alignment is a form of data integration that seeks a shared, underlying lowdimensional representation of multiple data sources that emphasizes similarities between alternative representations of the same entities. Semi-supervised manifold alignment relies on partially known correspondences between domains, either through shared features or through other known associations. In this paper, we introduce two semi-supervised manifold alignment methods. The first method, Shortest Paths on the Union of Domains (SPUD), forms a unified graph structure using known correspondences to establish graph edges. By learning inter-domain geodesic distances, SPUD creates a global, multi-domain structure. The second method, MASH (Manifold Alignment via Stochastic Hopping), learns local geometry within each domain and forms a joint diffusion operator using known correspondences to iteratively learn new inter-domain correspondences through a random-walk approach. Through the diffusion process, MASH forms a coupling matrix that links heterogeneous domains into a unified structure. We compare SPUD and MASH with existing semi-supervised manifold alignment methods and show that they outperform competing methods in aligning true correspondences and cross-domain classification. In addition, we show how these methods can be applied to transfer label information between domains.

Random forests are considered one of the best out-of-the-box classification and regression algorithms due to their high level of predictive performance with relatively little tuning. Pairwise proximities can be computed from a trained random forest and measure the similarity between data points relative to the supervised task. Random forest proximities have been used in many applications including the identification of variable importance, data imputation, outlier detection, and data visualization. However, existing definitions of random forest proximities do not accurately reflect the data geometry learned by the random forest. In this paper, we introduce a novel definition of random forest proximities called Random Forest-Geometry- and Accuracy-Preserving proximities (RF-GAP). We prove that the proximity-weighted sum (regression) or majority vote (classification) using RF-GAP exactly matches the out-of-bag random forest prediction, thus capturing the data geometry learned by the random forest. We empirically show that this improved geometric representation outperforms traditional random forest proximities in tasks such as data imputation and provides outlier detection and visualization results consistent with the learned data geometry.