We study the problem of list-decodable mean estimation, where an adversary can corrupt a majority of the dataset. Specifically, we are given a set T of n points in ℝd and a parameter 0< α <1/2 such that an α-fraction of the points in T are i.i.d. samples from a well-behaved distribution D and the remaining (1−α)-fraction are arbitrary. The goal is to output a small list of vectors, at least one of which is close to the mean of D. We develop new algorithms for this problem achieving nearly-optimal statistical guarantees, with runtime O(n1 + є0 d), for any fixed є0 > 0. All prior algorithms for this problem had additional polynomial factors in 1/α. We leverage this result, together with additional techniques, to obtain the first almost-linear time algorithms for clustering mixtures of k separated well-behaved distributions, nearly-matching the statistical guarantees of spectral methods. Prior clustering algorithms inherently relied on an application of k-PCA, thereby incurring runtimes of Ω(n d k). This marks the first runtime improvement for this basic statistical problem in nearly two decades.

Robust statistics has traditionally focused on designing estimators tolerant to a minority of contaminated data. {\em List-decodable learning}~\cite{CharikarSV17} studies the more challenging regime where only a minority $\tfrac 1 k$ fraction of the dataset, $k \geq 2$, is drawn from the distribution of interest, and no assumptions are made on the remaining data. We study the fundamental task of list-decodable mean estimation in high dimensions. Our main result is a new algorithm for bounded covariance distributions with optimal sample complexity and near-optimal error guarantee, running in {\em nearly-PCA time}. Assuming the ground truth distribution on $\mathbb{R}^d$ has identity-bounded covariance, our algorithm outputs $O(k)$ candidate means, one of which is within distance $O(\sqrt{k\log k})$ from the truth. Our algorithm runs in time $\widetilde{O}(ndk)$, where $n$ is the dataset size. This runtime nearly matches the cost of performing $k$-PCA on the data, a natural bottleneck of known algorithms for (very) special cases of our problem, such as clustering well-separated mixtures. Prior to our work, the fastest runtimes were $\widetilde{O}(n^2 d k^2)$~\cite{DiakonikolasKK20}, and $\widetilde{O}(nd k^C)$ \cite{CherapanamjeriMY20} for an unspecified constant $C \geq 6$. Our approach builds on a novel soft downweighting method we term SIFT, arguably the simplest known polynomial-time mean estimator in the list-decodable setting. To develop our fast algorithms, we boost the computational cost of SIFT via a careful ``win-win-win'' analysis of an approximate Ky Fan matrix multiplicative weights procedure we develop, which may be of independent interest.

We study the problem of {\em list-decodable mean estimation} for bounded covariance distributions. Specifically, we are given a set $T$ of points in $\R^d$ with the promise that an unknown $\alpha$-fraction of points in $T$, where $0< \alpha < 1/2$, are drawn from an unknown mean and bounded covariance distribution $D$, and no assumptions are made on the remaining points. The goal is to output a small list of hypothesis vectors such that at least one of them is close to the mean of $D$. We give the first practically viable estimator for this problem. In more detail, our algorithm is sample and computationally efficient, and achieves information-theoretically near-optimal error. While the only prior algorithm for this setting inherently relied on the ellipsoid method, our algorithm is iterative and only uses spectral techniques. Our main technical innovation is the design of a soft outlier removal procedure for high-dimensional heavy-tailed datasets with a majority of outliers.