The selective classifier (SC) has been proposed for rank based uncertainty thresholding, which could have applications in safety critical areas such as medical diagnostics, autonomous driving, and the justice system. The Area Under the Risk-Coverage Curve (AURC) has emerged as the foremost evaluation metric for assessing the performance of SC systems. In this work, we present a formal statistical formulation of population AURC, presenting an equivalent expression that can be interpreted as a reweighted risk function. Through Monte Carlo methods, we derive empirical AURC plug-in estimators for finite sample scenarios. The weight estimators associated with these plug-in estimators are shown to be consistent, with low bias and tightly bounded mean squared error (MSE). The plug-in estimators are proven to converge at a rate of $\mathcal{O}(\sqrt{\ln(n)/n})$ demonstrating statistical consistency. We empirically validate the effectiveness of our estimators through experiments across multiple datasets, model architectures, and confidence score functions (CSFs), demonstrating consistency and effectiveness in fine-tuning AURC performance.

Audio-visual understanding is a rapidly evolving field that seeks to integrate and interpret information from both auditory and visual modalities. Despite recent advances in multi-modal learning, existing benchmarks often suffer from strong visual bias -- when answers can be inferred from visual data alone -- and provide only aggregate scores that conflate multiple sources of error. This makes it difficult to determine whether models struggle with visual understanding, audio interpretation, or audio-visual alignment. In this work, we introduce DAVE: Diagnostic Audio Visual Evaluation, a novel benchmark dataset designed to systematically evaluate audio-visual models across controlled settings. DAVE alleviates existing limitations by (i) ensuring both modalities are necessary to answer correctly and (ii) decoupling evaluation into atomic subcategories. Our detailed analysis of state-of-the-art models reveals specific failure modes and provides targeted insights for improvement. By offering this standardized diagnostic framework, we aim to facilitate more robust development of audio-visual models.Dataset: https://huggingface.co/datasets/gorjanradevski/daveCode: https://github.com/gorjanradevski/dave

Proper scoring rules evaluate the quality of probabilistic predictions, playing an essential role in the pursuit of accurate and well-calibrated models. Every proper score decomposes into two fundamental components – proper calibration error and refinement – utilizing a Bregman divergence. While uncertainty calibration has gained significant attention, current literature lacks a general estimator for these quantities with known statistical properties. To address this gap, we propose a method that allows consistent, and asymptotically unbiased estimation of all proper calibration errors and refinement terms. In particular, we introduce Kullback-Leibler calibration error, induced by the commonly used cross-entropy loss. As part of our results, we prove the relation between refinement and f-divergences, which implies information monotonicity in neural networks, regardless of which proper scoring rule is optimized. Our experiments validate empirically the claimed properties of the proposed estimator and suggest that the selection of a post-hoc calibration method should be determined by the particular calibration error of interest.

When machine learning systems face dataset shift, model calibration plays a pivotal role in ensuring their reliability. Calibration error (CE) provides insights into the alignment between the predicted confidence scores and the classifier accuracy. While prior works have delved into the implications of dataset shift on calibration, existing CE estimators either (i) assume access to labeled data from the target domain, often unavailable in practice, or (ii) are derived under a covariate shift assumption. In this work we propose a novel, label-free, consistent CE estimator under label shift. Label shift is characterized by changes in the marginal label distribution p(Y), with a constant conditional p(X|Y) distribution between the source and target. We introduce a novel calibration method, called LaSCal, which uses the estimator in conjunction with a post-hoc calibration strategy, to perform unsupervised calibration on the target distribution. Our thorough empirical analysis demonstrates the effectiveness and reliability of the proposed approach across different modalities, model architectures and label shift intensities.

Despite their impressive predictive performance in various computer vision tasks, deep neural networks (DNNs) tend to make overly confident predictions, which hinders their widespread use in safety-critical applications. While there have been recent attempts to calibrate DNNs, most of these efforts have primarily been focused on classification tasks, thus neglecting DNN-based object detectors. Although several recent works addressed calibration for object detection and proposed differentiable penalties, none of them are consistent estimators of established concepts in calibration. In this work, we tackle the challenge of defining and estimating calibration error specifically for this task. In particular, we adapt the definition of classification calibration error to handle the nuances associated with object detection, and predictions in structured output spaces more generally. Furthermore, we propose a consistent and differentiable estimator of the detection calibration error, utilizing kernel density estimation. Our experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our estimator against competing train-time and post-hoc calibration methods, while maintaining similar detection performance.

Calibrated probabilistic classifiers are models whose predicted probabilities can directly be interpreted as uncertainty estimates. It has been shown recently that deep neural networks are poorly calibrated and tend to output overconfident predictions. As a remedy, we propose a low-bias, trainable calibration error estimator based on Dirichlet kernel density estimates, which asymptotically converges to the true $L_p$ calibration error. This novel estimator enables us to tackle the strongest notion of multiclass calibration, called canonical (or distribution) calibration, while other common calibration methods are tractable only for top-label and marginal calibration. The computational complexity of our estimator is $\mathcal{O}(n^2)$, the convergence rate is $\mathcal{O}(n^{-1/2})$, and it is unbiased up to $\mathcal{O}(n^{-2})$, achieved by a geometric series debiasing scheme. In practice, this means that the estimator can be applied to small subsets of data, enabling efficient estimation and mini-batch updates. The proposed method has a natural choice of kernel, and can be used to generate consistent estimates of other quantities based on conditional expectation, such as the sharpness of a probabilistic classifier. Empirical results validate the correctness of our estimator, and demonstrate its utility in canonical calibration error estimation and calibration error regularized risk minimization.