We present a novel algorithm, implemented in the software ARGinfer, for probabilistic inference of the Ancestral Recombination Graph under the Coalescent with Recombination. Our Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm takes advantage of the Succinct Tree Sequence data structure that has allowed great advances in simulation and point estimation, but not yet probabilistic inference. Unlike previous methods, which employ the Sequentially Markov Coalescent approximation, ARGinfer uses the Coalescent with Recombination, allowing more accurate inference of key evolutionary parameters. We show using simulations that ARGinfer can accurately estimate many properties of the evolutionary history of the sample, including the topology and branch lengths of the genealogical tree at each sequence site, and the times and locations of mutation and recombination events. ARGinfer approximates posterior probability distributions for these and other quantities, providing interpretable assessments of uncertainty that we show to be well calibrated. ARGinfer is currently limited to tens of DNA sequences of several hundreds of kilobases, but has scope for further computational improvements to increase its applicability.

Motivation: Sequencing pools of individuals (Pool-Seq) is a cost-effective way to gain insight into the genetics of complex traits, but as yet no parametric method has been developed to both test for genetic effects and estimate their magnitude. Here, we propose GWAlpha, a flexible method to obtain parametric estimates of genetic effects genome-wide from Pool-Seq experiments. Results: We showed that GWAlpha powerfully replicates the results of Genome-Wide Association Studies (GWAS) from model organisms. We perform simulation studies that illustrate the effect on power of sample size and number of pools and test the method on different experimental data. Availability and Implementation: GWAlpha is implemented in python, designed to run on Linux operating system and tested on Mac OS. It is freely available at https://github.com/aflevel/GWAlpha . Contact: [email protected]. Supplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

MOTIVATION: Copy number variations (CNVs) are increasingly recognized as an substantial source of individual genetic variation, and hence there is a growing interest in investigating the evolutionary history of CNVs as well as their impact on complex disease susceptibility. CNV/SNP haplotypes are critical for this research, but although many methods have been proposed for inferring integer copy number, few have been designed for inferring CNV haplotypic phase and none of these are applicable at genome-wide scale. Here, we present a method for inferring missing CNV genotypes, predicting CNV allelic configuration and for inferring CNV haplotypic phase from SNP/CNV genotype data. Our method, implemented in the software polyHap v2.0, is based on a hidden Markov model, which models the joint haplotype structure between CNVs and SNPs. Thus, haplotypic phase of CNVs and SNPs are inferred simultaneously. A sampling algorithm is employed to obtain a measure of confidence/credibility of each estimate. RESULTS: We generated diploid phase-known CNV-SNP genotype datasets by pairing male X chromosome CNV-SNP haplotypes. We show that polyHap provides accurate estimates of missing CNV genotypes, allelic configuration and CNV haplotypic phase on these datasets. We applied our method to a non-simulated dataset-a region on Chromosome 2 encompassing a short deletion. The results confirm that polyHap's accuracy extends to real-life datasets. AVAILABILITY: Our method is implemented in version 2.0 of the polyHap software package and can be downloaded from http://www.imperial.ac.uk/medicine/people/l.coin.

UNLABELLED: PopABC is a computer package for inferring the pattern of demographic divergence of closely related populations and species. The software performs coalescent simulation in the framework of approximate Bayesian computation (ABC). PopABC can also be used to perform Bayesian model choice to discriminate between different demographic scenarios. The program can be used either for research or for education and teaching purposes. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: Source code and binaries are freely available at http://www.reading.ac.uk/ approximately sar05sal/software.htm. The program was implemented in C and can run on UNIX, MacOSX and Windows operating systems.

UNLABELLED: Genetic data obtained on population samples convey information about their evolutionary history. Inference methods can extract part of this information but they require sophisticated statistical techniques that have been made available to the biologist community (through computer programs) only for simple and standard situations typically involving a small number of samples. We propose here a computer program (DIY ABC) for inference based on approximate Bayesian computation (ABC), in which scenarios can be customized by the user to fit many complex situations involving any number of populations and samples. Such scenarios involve any combination of population divergences, admixtures and population size changes. DIY ABC can be used to compare competing scenarios, estimate parameters for one or more scenarios and compute bias and precision measures for a given scenario and known values of parameters (the current version applies to unlinked microsatellite data). This article describes key methods used in the program and provides its main features. The analysis of one simulated and one real dataset, both with complex evolutionary scenarios, illustrates the main possibilities of DIY ABC. AVAILABILITY: The software DIY ABC is freely available at http://www.montpellier.inra.fr/CBGP/diyabc.

MOTIVATION: Most genome-wide association studies rely on single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) analyses to identify causal loci. The increased stringency required for genome-wide analyses (with per-SNP significance threshold typically approximately 10(-7)) means that many real signals will be missed. Thus it is still highly relevant to develop methods with improved power at low type I error. Haplotype-based methods provide a promising approach; however, they suffer from statistical problems such as abundance of rare haplotypes and ambiguity in defining haplotype block boundaries. RESULTS: We have developed an ancestral haplotype clustering (AncesHC) association method which addresses many of these problems. It can be applied to biallelic or multiallelic markers typed in haploid, diploid or multiploid organisms, and also handles missing genotypes. Our model is free from the assumption of a rigid block structure but recognizes a block-like structure if it exists in the data. We employ a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) to cluster the haplotypes into groups of predicted common ancestral origin. We then test each cluster for association with disease by comparing the numbers of cases and controls with 0, 1 and 2 chromosomes in the cluster. We demonstrate the power of this approach by simulation of case-control status under a range of disease models for 1500 outcrossed mice originating from eight inbred lines. Our results suggest that AncesHC has substantially more power than single-SNP analyses to detect disease association, and is also more powerful than the cladistic haplotype clustering method CLADHC. AVAILABILITY: The software can be downloaded from http://www.imperial.ac.uk/medicine/people/l.coin.

BACKGROUND: FREGENE simulates sequence-level data over large genomic regions in large populations. Because, unlike coalescent simulators, it works forwards through time, it allows complex scenarios of selection, demography, and recombination to be modelled simultaneously. Detailed tracking of sites under selection is implemented in FREGENE and provides the opportunity to test theoretical predictions and gain new insights into mechanisms of selection. We describe here main functionalities of both FREGENE and SAMPLE, a companion program that can replicate association study datasets. RESULTS: We report detailed analyses of six large simulated datasets that we have made publicly available. Three demographic scenarios are modelled: one panmictic, one substructured with migration, and one complex scenario that mimics the principle features of genetic variation in major worldwide human populations. For each scenario there is one neutral simulation, and one with a complex pattern of selection. CONCLUSION: FREGENE and the simulated datasets will be valuable for assessing the validity of models for selection, demography and population genetic parameters, as well as the efficacy of association studies. Its principle advantages are modelling flexibility and computational efficiency. It is open source and object-oriented. As such, it can be customised and the range of models extended.

BACKGROUND: The power of haplotype-based methods for association studies, identification of regions under selection, and ancestral inference, is well-established for diploid organisms. For polyploids, however, the difficulty of determining phase has limited such approaches. Polyploidy is common in plants and is also observed in animals. Partial polyploidy is sometimes observed in humans (e.g. trisomy 21; Down's syndrome), and it arises more frequently in some human tissues. Local changes in ploidy, known as copy number variations (CNV), arise throughout the genome. Here we present a method, implemented in the software polyHap, for the inference of haplotype phase and missing observations from polyploid genotypes. PolyHap allows each individual to have a different ploidy, but ploidy cannot vary over the genomic region analysed. It employs a hidden Markov model (HMM) and a sampling algorithm to infer haplotypes jointly in multiple individuals and to obtain a measure of uncertainty in its inferences. RESULTS: In the simulation study, we combine real haplotype data to create artificial diploid, triploid, and tetraploid genotypes, and use these to demonstrate that polyHap performs well, in terms of both switch error rate in recovering phase and imputation error rate for missing genotypes. To our knowledge, there is no comparable software for phasing a large, densely genotyped region of chromosome from triploids and tetraploids, while for diploids we found polyHap to be more accurate than fastPhase. We also compare the results of polyHap to SATlotyper on an experimentally haplotyped tetraploid dataset of 12 SNPs, and show that polyHap is more accurate. CONCLUSION: With the availability of large SNP data in polyploids and CNV regions, we believe that polyHap, our proposed method for inferring haplotypic phase from genotype data, will be useful in enabling researchers analysing such data to exploit the power of haplotype-based analyses.

Abstract Summary: MAC5 implements MCMC sampling of the posterior distribution of tree topologies from DNA sequences containing gaps by using a five state model of evolution (the four nucleotides and the gap character). Availability: MAC5 is available from http://www.reading.ac.uk/statistics/genetics/ under the software link. Contact: [email protected]